关键词: 社区火灾, 风险因素, 社会网络分析/N-K(SNA/N-K)模型, 风险耦合, 火灾防控

Abstract:

Community fires exhibit high incidence rates and interconnected risk factors. To establish an effective fire prevention and control system aligned with community risk profiles, a hybrid SNA/N-K model was constructed to calculate risk coupling values and network centrality metrics. By adjusting the out-degree values of closeness centrality using coupling values, critical risk factors were identified, providing evidence-based decision-making insights for community fire prevention. Key findings reveal that management deficiencies dominate risk coupling dynamics. An increase coupling factors significantly elevates community fire risk levels. The top three critical risk factors are failure to investigate fire hazards as required, inadequate safety awareness and knowledge of residents and absence of regular fire safety education. Based on this research, a "three-dimensional four-stage" community fire safety management model is proposed. From the dimensions of institutional optimization, technological empowerment and behavioral intervention, a comprehensive strategy is formulated to decouple and interrupt risk coupling chains in community fire prevention and control, encompassing the full cycle of prevention, early warning, response, and recovery. This study contributes a theoretical framework and empirical intervention pathways for community fire risk mitigation, offering actionable guidance for policymakers and practitioners.

Key words: community fire, risk factors, social network analysis/N-K(SNA/N-K) model, coupling, fire prevention and control