基于关联规则的危险品公路运输事故风险因素研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1618

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确危险品道路运输事故的特点及其成因,收集1 721起危险品公路运输事故的详细资料,对数据进行清洗,在剔除无效、丢失的事故记录后,提取出6个直接风险因素及其包含的18个子因素,并将每个风险因素变量的属性值编码。利用基于Apriori算法的关联规则挖掘技术,量化风险因素之间的相关程度。经过归纳分析,找出35条有价值的关联规则,从中探究不同风险因素组合对危险品运输事故的影响特征。结果表明:24%的危险品运输事故发生在运载有24~39 t易燃液体的危险品货车上,13%的危险品运输事故涉及腐蚀性物质且事故后果为泄漏。对于事故类型,34%的危险品运输事故的事故类型为单辆危险品货车的翻车事故,且道路等级越低,翻车事故发生的可能性越大。在低等级公路的危险品运输事故中,有38%发生在夜晚,原因主要是低等级道路平纵线形复杂,交通安全设施不完善,驾驶员的反应能力和视线等条件均受到制约。

关键词: 关联规则, 危险品, 公路运输事故, 风险因素

Abstract:

In order to understand the characteristics and causes of hazmat transport accidents, detailed data of 1 721 hazmat transport accidents was collected. After eliminating invalid and lost accident records, 6 direct risk factors and their 18 subfactors were extracted. Furthermore, the attribute value of each risk factor variable was coded. The association rule mining technology based on the Apriori algorithm was used to quantify the degree of correlation between risk factors. After inductive analysis, 35 valuable association rules were found to explore the influence of different risk factor combinations on hazmat transport accidents. The results show that 24% of hazmat transport accidents occur on trucks carrying 24-39 tons of flammable liquid, and 13% of hazmat transport accidents involve corrosive substances, and the consequence is leakage. As for accident types, 34% of hazmat transportation accidents are rollover accidents of a single truck, and the lower the road grade is, the greater the possibility of a rollover accident. Hazmat transport accidents on low-grade highways are more likely to occur at night, because of the complex horizontal, vertical lines and imperfect traffic safety facilities of low-grade roads and the driver's reaction ability and vision conditions are constrained.

Key words: association rule, hazardous material, highway transport accidents, accident risk factor

王艾迪, 邢莹莹, 张诗雯, 陆键. 基于关联规则的危险品公路运输事故风险因素研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(6): 159-165.

WANG Aidi, XING Yingying, ZHANG Shiwen, LU Jian. Research on risk factors of hazardous material highway transport accidents based on association rules[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(6): 159-165.

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风险因素		属性值
危险品因素	危险品种类	爆炸品(1),气体(2),易燃液体(3),易燃固体(4),氧化性物质和有机过氧化物(5),毒性物质(6),腐蚀性物质(7),其他(8)
危险品因素	危险品运量/t	(0, 10] (1),(10, 25] (2),(24, 40] (3),(40, 100](4)
驾驶员因素	操作失误	—
	疲劳驾驶	—
	超速	—
地点因素	道路类型	城市道路(1),高速公路(2),一级公路(3),二级公路(4),三、四级公路(5)
	路面潮湿	—
	弯道	—
	坡道	—
	特殊位置(桥梁、交叉口、隧道)	—
环境因素	季节	春:3—5月(1),夏6—8月(2),秋:9—11月(3),冬:12月—次年2月(4)
	双休日	—
	时间段	黎明:5:00—7:00(1),白天:7:00—17:00:(2),黄昏:17:00—19:00(3),晚上:19:00—次日5:00(4)
	天气情况	晴天(1),阴天(2),不利天气如降雨、降雪、大雾等(3)
车辆因素	事故涉及车辆数	1辆(1),2辆(2),3辆(3),4辆以上(4)
事故因素	事故类型	追尾碰撞(1),刮擦(2),翻车或侧翻(3),迎面相撞或撞护栏(4),车辆故障如抛锚、爆胎、阀门故障、刹车失灵、自燃或起火等(5)
	事故后果	爆炸(1),起火(2),泄漏(3),无泄漏(4)
	疏散人数(事故影响范围)	不疏散(0),小范围疏散:1~100人(1),大范围疏散:100人以上(2)

序号	强关联规则	S	C	L
1	路面潮湿→天气情况3	0.16	0.90	2.81
2	事故类型1 →事故涉及车辆数2	0.19	0.81	2.44
3	危险品种类8 →季节3	0.06	0.51	2.22
4	弯道→事故类型3	0.03	0.74	2.01
5	危险品种类2 →危险品运量2	0.07	0.49	1.92
6	事故类型4 →事故涉及车辆数2	0.11	0.62	1.87
7	坡道→事故类型3	0.02	0.65	1.76
8	道路类型5 →事故类型3	0.06	0.64	1.75
9	超速→事故类型3	0.02	0.59	1.61
10	事故类型5 →事故涉及车辆数1	0.20	0.95	1.59
11	事故涉及车辆数4 →道路类型2	0.02	0.68	1.57
12	特殊位置→道路类型1	0.05	0.48	1.57
13	事故类型3 →事故涉及车辆数1	0.34	0.93	1.56
14	事故类型1 →道路类型2	0.15	0.65	1.51
15	道路类型4 →事故类型3	0.05	0.53	1.44
16	危险品种类6 →道路类型2	0.02	0.62	1.44
17	道路类型3 →危险品运量3	0.06	0.54	1.42
18	弯道→事故涉及车辆数1	0.03	0.82	1.37
19	时间段1 →事故类型1	0.03	0.31	1.34
20	超速→时间段2	0.03	0.67	1.31
21	危险品运量1 →道路类型1	0.04	0.40	1.30
22	道路类型3 →事故类型3	0.04	0.46	1.30
23	事故涉及车辆数4 →天气情况2	0.02	0.56	1.30
24	危险品种类7 →双休日	0.06	0.43	1.29
25	疏散人数1 →道路类型1	0.04	0.39	1.28
26	时间段3 →道路类型1	0.03	0.38	1.25
27	坡道1 →事故涉及车辆数1	0.02	0.74	1.23

序号	强关联规则	S	C	L
28	道路类型5 →时间段4	0.03	0.38	1.20
29	危险品运量3 →危险品种类3	0.24	0.63	1.19
30	坡道1 →事故后果3	0.03	0.96	1.18
31	事故后果2 →道路类型2	0.06	0.50	1.16
32	危险品种类7 →事故后果3	0.13	0.93	1.14
33	时间段1 →道路类型2	0.07	0.50	1.13
34	事故涉及车辆数2 →道路类型2	0.16	0.49	1.12
35	弯道→事故后果3	0.03	0.91	1.11