基于FRAM的煤矿生产系统应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1373

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对煤矿生产系统中因人、组织和技术交互影响所造成的系统复杂性增加,导致传统线性分析方法难以解决复杂系统问题,提出一种定量化的功能共振分析方法(FRAM)。首先改进FRAM方法,通过事故调查报告数据统计结果确定功能可变性概率,采用Apriori算法挖掘数据间的潜在关系,以此达到量化系统可变性的目的;然后以煤矿生产系统为研究背景,通过分析96起重、特大煤矿事故的调查报告和煤矿生产特点,建立具有14个功能的煤矿生产FRAM模型;最后采用改进的FRAM方法,找出煤矿生产系统功能模块间的非线性耦合共振链条及其事故演化路径。研究结果表明:企业生产前的安全检查落实不到位对系统造成恶劣影响;场景性能条件越差,越易造成更多的关键耦合,导致共振现象产生。

关键词: 煤矿生产系统, 功能共振分析方法(FRAM), 安全管理, 关联规则

Abstract:

A quantitative FRAM was proposed to solve the complex system problem caused by the interaction of human, organization and technology in the coal mine production system. Firstly, the FRAM method was improved, and the function variability probability was determined by the statistical results of accident investigation report data. The Apriori algorithm was used to mine the potential relationship between the data, so as to quantify the system variability. Then, with the coal mine production system as the research background, through the analysis of 96 cranes and a large coal mine accident investigation report and production characteristics, a coal mine production FRAM model with 14 functions was established. Finally, the improved FRAM method was used to find the nonlinear coupling resonance chain and its accident evolution path between functional modules of the coal mine production system. The results show that: the implementation of safety inspection before production is not in place, which has a bad impact on the system. The worse the scene performance conditions are, the more critical coupling is likely to occur, resulting in a resonance phenomenon.

Key words: coal mine production system, safety management, complex socio-technical system, association rules

郭进平, 马卓远, 孙寅峰, 韩欣亚. 基于FRAM的煤矿生产系统应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(6): 73-79.

GUO Jinping, MA Zhuoyuan, SUN Yinfeng, HAN Xinya. Application of mine production system based on FRAM[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(6): 73-79.

图/表 9

图1

图2

图3

表1

续表1

图4

表2

不同场景性能条件下的场景

场景	$S 1$	$S 2$	$S 3$	$S 4$
z₁	2	4	4	4
z₂	2	4	1	2
z₃	2	2	1	2
z₄	4	2	1	4
z₅	4	2	1	1

表2

表3

图5

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编号	上下游功能	支持度	置信度	提升度	编号	下游	支持度	置信度	提升度
a₁	F₁→F₂	0.08	0.8	2.00	a₁₄	F₆→F₁₀	0.26	0.78	1.19
a₂	F₂→F₇	0.26	0.74	1.05	a₁₅	F₇→F₉	0.31	0.45	0.88
a₃	F₂→F₉	0.23	0.65	1.27	a₁₆	F₇→F₁₀	0.50	0.72	1.09
a₄	F₂→F₁₀	0.29	0.82	1.25	a₁₇	F₈→F₉	0.16	0.71	1.40
a₅	F₃→F₉	0.26	0.76	1.48	a₁₈	F₉→F₁₁	0.19	0.37	1.04
a₆	F₃→F₁₀	0.26	0.76	1.15	a₁₉	F₉→F₁₃	0.25	0.49	1.38
a₇	F₄→F₉	0.30	0.69	1.35	a₂₀	F₁₁→F₁₀	0.24	0.68	1.03
a₈	F₄→F₁₀	0.34	0.79	1.20	a₂₁	F₁₁→F₁₂	0.14	0.38	1.53
a₉	F₄→F₁₁	0.17	0.38	1.08	a₂₂	F₁₁→F₁₄	0.22	0.62	1.12
a₁₀	F₅→F₆	0.20	0.48	1.43	a₂₃	F₁₂→F₁₀	0.19	0.75	1.14
a₁₁	F₅→F₉	0.21	0.50	0.98	a₂₄	F₁₃→F₁₄	0.27	0.76	1.39

编号	上下游功能	支持度	置信度	提升度	编号	下游	支持度	置信度	提升度
a₁₂	F₅→F₁₀	0.29	0.70	1.07	a₂₅	F₁₄→F₁₀	0.43	0.77	1.18
a₁₃	F₅→F₁₄	0.25	0.60	1.09	a₂₆	F₁₄→F₁₂	0.20	0.36	1.43