基于N-K模型的地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合演化分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.2102

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 1-9.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.2102

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 下一篇

基于N-K模型的地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合演化分析

方俊¹(), 郭佩文¹, 朱科¹^,²^,^**(), 陈正福³

1 武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉 430070
2 武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园,海南三亚 572000
3 武汉市江夏区水务和湖泊局,湖北武汉 430200

收稿日期:2022-01-12 修回日期:2022-04-18 出版日期:2022-06-28 发布日期:2022-12-28
通讯作者: 朱科
作者简介:
方俊 (1964—),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事工程项目管理及信息化、建设项目投融资、建设工程造价管理方面的研究。E-mail: whutfj@126.com。
陈正福,高级工程师
基金资助:
海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ2021024); 三亚崖州湾科技城管理局重大科技项目(SKJC-KJ-2019KY02); 三亚崖州湾科技城海南专项博士研究生科学研究基金资助(HSPHDSRF-2022-03-001); 武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园开放基金资助(2020KF0012)

Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model

FANG Jun¹(), GUO Peiwen¹, ZHU Ke¹^,²^,^**(), CHEN Zhengfu³

1 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
2 Science Education Innovation Park, Wuhan University of Technology, Sanya Hainan 572000, China
3 Water Affairs Bureau and Lake Bureau of Jiangxia District, Wuhan Hubei 430200, China

Received:2022-01-12 Revised:2022-04-18 Online:2022-06-28 Published:2022-12-28
Contact: ZHU Ke

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究地铁隧道施工安全风险因素作用机制,科学预防施工安全事故,引入N-K模型演化分析地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合。在施工安全风险因素定义和耦合机制分析的基础上,根据耦合层次网络模型构建耦合交互场景,并按耦合数量进行组合分类;建立基于N-K模型的耦合效应度量模型,进行耦合信息交互、耦合效应量化计算;以我国近20年发生的231起地铁隧道施工典型事故为例,验证该模型的有效性和准确性。结果表明:安全事故的发生与风险耦合值成正比,耦合因素越多则风险值越大;人-管耦合风险值最大,管-环耦合风险值最小;主观因素与客观因素的耦合更易导致安全事故的发生。

关键词: 地铁隧道, 施工安全, 风险耦合, 演化机制, N-K模型

Abstract:

In order to explore the mechanism of safety risk factors in subway tunnel construction and prevent construction safety accidents scientifically, the N-K model was introduced into the evolution coupling analysis of safety risk in subway tunnel construction. On the basis of the definition of construction safety risk factors and the analysis of the coupling mechanism, the coupling interaction scenarios were constructed according to the coupling hierarchical network model, and the combined classification was carried out according to the number of coupling. The coupling effect measurement model based on N-K model was established, and the coupling information multivariate interaction and coupling effect quantitative calculation were carried out. The validity and accuracy of the model were verified by taking 231 typical accidents of subway tunnel construction in China in recent 20 years as examples. The results show that safety accidents are directly proportional to the risk coupling value, and the more coupling factors, the greater the risk value. The coupling risk value of human and management is the highest, and the coupling risk value of management and environment is the lowest. The coupling of subjective and objective factors is more likely to lead to safety accidents.

Key words: metro tunnel, construction safety, risk coupling, evolution mechanism, N-K model

方俊, 郭佩文, 朱科, 陈正福. 基于N-K模型的地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合演化分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(6): 1-9.

FANG Jun, GUO Peiwen, ZHU Ke, CHEN Zhengfu. Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(6): 1-9.

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时间	案例	事故类型	人的因素	机的因素	管的因素	环的因素	统计类型	耦合类型
2021-05-07	杭州地铁4号线	土方坍塌	1	0	1	1	10011	T₃₆(a,d,e)
2019-12-01	广州地铁11号线	横通道坍塌	0	1	1	1	01011	T₃₉(b,d,e)
2018-02-07	佛山地铁2号线	透水坍塌	0	1	1	1	01011	T₃₉(b,d,e)
2017-11-04	成都地铁10号线	起重伤害事故	1	1	1	1	11011	T₄₃(a,b,d,e)

单因素耦合	次数	n₀₀₀₀₀=0	n₁₀₀₀₀=9	n₀₁₀₀₀=2	n₀₀₁₀₀=3	n₀₀₀₁₀=1	n₀₀₀₀₁=15
单因素耦合	频率	P₀₀₀₀₀=0.000 0	P₁₀₀₀₀=0.039 0	P₀₁₀₀₀=0.008 7	P₀₀₁₀₀=0.013 0	P₀₀₀₁₀=0.004 3	P₀₀₀₀₁=0.064 9
双因素耦合	次数	n₁₁₀₀₀=8	n₁₀₁₀₀=9	n₁₀₀₁₀=1	n₁₀₀₀₁=6	n₀₁₁₀₀=2	n₀₁₀₁₀=1
	频率	P₁₁₀₀₀=0.034 6	P₁₀₁₀₀=0.039 0	P₁₀₀₁₀=0.004 3	P₁₀₀₀₁=0.026 0	P₀₁₁₀₀=0.008 7	P₀₁₀₁₀=0.004 3
	次数	n₀₁₀₀₁=2	n₀₀₁₁₀=3	n₀₀₁₀₁=3	n₀₀₀₁₁=1	—	—
	频率	P₀₁₀₀₁=0.008 7	P₀₀₁₁₀=0.013 0	P₀₀₁₀₁=0.013 0	P₀₀₀₁₁=0.004 3	—	—
多因素耦合	次数	n₁₁₁₀₀=2	n₁₁₀₁₀=2	n₁₁₀₀₁=8	n₁₀₁₁₀=3	n₁₀₁₀₁=19	n₁₀₀₁₁=19
	频率	P₁₁₁₀₀=0.008 7	P₁₁₀₁₀=0.008 7	P₁₁₀₀₁=0.034 6	P₁₀₁₁₀=0.013 0	P₁₀₁₀₁=0.082 3	P₁₀₀₁₁=0.082 3
	次数	n₀₁₁₁₀=2	n₀₁₁₀₁=4	n₀₁₀₁₁=5	n₀₀₁₁₁=4	n₁₁₁₁₀=23	n₁₁₁₀₁=18
	频率	P₀₁₁₁₀=0.008 7	P₀₁₁₀₁=0.017 3	P₀₁₀₁₁=0.021 6	P₀₀₁₁₁=0.017 3	P₁₁₁₁₀=0.099 6	P₁₁₁₀₁=0.077 9
	次数	n₁₁₀₁₁=13	n₁₀₁₁₁=17	n₀₁₁₁₁=3	n₁₁₁₁₁=23	—	—
	频率	P₁₁₀₁₁=0.056 3	P₁₀₁₁₁=0.073 6	P₀₁₁₁₁=0.013 0	P₁₁₁₁₁=0.099 6	—	—

P_00...=0.129 9	P_01...=0.090 9	P_10...=0.359 3	P_11...=0.419 9	P_0.0..=0.116 9	P_0.1..=0.103 9	P_1.0..=0.285 7	P_1.1..=0.493 5
P_0..0.=0.134 2	P_0..1.=0.086 6	P_1..0.=0.342 0	P_1..1.=0.437 2	P_0...0=0.060 6	P_0...1=0.160 2	P_1...0=0.246 8	P_1...1=0.532 5
P_.00..=0.225 1	P_.01..=0.264 1	P_.10..=0.177 5	P_.11..=0.333 3	P_.0.0.=0.277 1	P_.0.1.=0.212 1	P_.1.0.=0.199 1	P_.1.1.= 0.311 8
P_.0..0=0.125 6	P_.0..1=0.363 6	P_.1..0=0.181 8	P_.1..1=0.329 0	P_..00.=0.216 5	P_..01.=0.186 1	P_..10.=0.259 7	P_..11.=0.337 6
P_..0.0=0.103 9	P_..0.1=0.298 7	P_..1.0=0.203 5	P_..1.1=0.393 9	P_...00=0.151 5	P_...01=0.324 7	P_...10=0.155 8	P_...11=0.368 0

P_000..=0.073 6	P_001..=0.056 3	P_010..=0.043 3	P_100..=0.151 5	P_110..=0.134 2	P_101..=0.207 8	P_011..=0.047 6	P_111..=0.285 7
P_00.0.=0.090 9	P_00.1.=0.039 0	P_01.0.=0.047 6	P_10.0.=0.186 1	P_11.0.=0.155 8	P_10.1.=0.173 2	P_01.1.=0.047 6	P_11.1.=0.264 1
P_00..0=0.030 3	P_00..1=0.099 6	P_01..0=0.030 3	P_01..1=0.060 6	P_10..0=0.095 2	P_10..1=0.264 1	P_11..0=0.151 5	P_11..1=0.268 4
P_0.00.=0.082 3	P_0.01.=0.03 6	P_0.10.=0.051 9	P_0.11.=0.051 9	P_1.00.=0.134 2	P_1.01.=0.151 5	P_1.10.=0.207 8	P_1.11.=0.285 7
P_0..00=0.030 3	P_0..01=0.103 9	P_0..10=0.030 3	P_0..11=0.05 3	P_1..00=0.121 2	P_1..01=0.220 8	P_1..10=0.125 5	P_1..11=0.311 7
P_0.0.0=0.017 3	P_0.0.1=0.099 6	P_0.1.0=0.043 3	P_0.1.1=0.060 6	P_1.0.0=0.086 6	P_1.0.1=0.199 1	P_1.1.0=0.160 2	P_1.1.1=0.333 3
P_.000.=0.129 9	P_.001.=0.095 2	P_.010.=0.147 2	P_.100.=0.086 6	P_.011.=0.116 9	P_.110.=0.112 6	P_.101.=0.090 9	P_.111.=0.220 8
P_.00.0=0.047 6	P_.00.1=0.177 5	P_.01.0=0.077 9	P_.10.0=0.056 3	P_.11.0=0.125 5	P_.10.1=0.121 2	P_.01.1=0.186 1	P_.11.1=0.207 8
P_.0.00=0.090 9	P_.0.01=0.186 1	P_.0.10=0.034 6	P_.1.00=0.060 6	P_.0.11=0.177 5	P_.1.10=0.121 2	P_.1.01=0.138 5	P_.1.11=0.190 5
P_..000=0.082 3	P_..001=0.134 2	P_..010=0.021 6	P_..100=0.069 3	P_..011=0.164 5	P_..101=0.190 5	P_..110=0.134 2	P_..111=0.203 5

P_0000.=0.064 9	P_0001.=0.008 7	P_0010.=0.026 0	P_0100.=0.017 3	P_1000.=0.064 9	P_0011.=0.030 3	P_0110.=0.026 0	P_1100.=0.069 3
P_0101.=0.026 0	P_1010.=0.121 2	P_1001.=0.086 6	P_1110.=0.086 6	P_1101.=0.064 9	P_1011.=0.086 6	P_0111.=0.021 6	P_1111.=0.199 1
P_000.0=0.004 3	P_000.1=0.069 3	P_001.0=0.026 0	P_010.0=0.013 0	P_100.0=0.043 3	P_001.1=0.030 3	P_010.1=0.030 3	P_011.0=0.017 3
P_110.0=0.043 3	P_101.0=0.051 9	P_100.1=0.108 2	P_111.0=0.108 2	P_110.1=0.090 9	P_101.1=0.155 8	P_011.1=0.030 3	P_111.1=0.177 5
P_00.00=0.013 0	P_00.01=0.077 9	P_00.10=0.017 3	P_01.00=0.017 3	P_10.00=0.077 9	P_11.00=0.043 3	P_00.11=0.021 6	P_10.10=0.017 3
P_01.01=0.026 0	P_10.01=0.108 2	P_01.10=0.013 0	P_11.10=0.108 2	P_01.11=0.034 6	P_11.01=0.112 6	P_10.11=0.155 8	P_11.11=0.155 8
P_0.000=0.008 7	P_0.001=0.073 6	P_0.010=0.008 7	P_0.100=0.021 6	P_1.000=0.073 6	P_0.011=0.026 0	P_0.110=0.021 6	P_1.100=0.047 6
P_1.010=0.013 0	P_1.001=0.060 6	P_0.101=0.030 3	P_0.111=0.030 3	P_1.110=0.112 6	P_1.101=0.160 2	P_1.011=0.138 5	P_1.111=0.173 2
P_.0000=0.039 0	P_.0001=0.090 9	P_.0010=0.008 7	P_.0100=0.051 9	P_.1000=0.043 3	P_.0011=0.086 6	P_.0110=0.026 0	P_.1100=0.017 3
P_.1001=0.043 3	P_.1010=0.013 0	P_.0101=0.095 2	P_.0111=0.090 9	P_.1110=0.108 2	P_.1101=0.095 2	P_.1011=0.077 9	P_.1111=0.112 6

基于N-K模型的地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合演化分析

Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model

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耦合值	排序	耦合值	排序
T₅(a,b,c,d,e)=0.314 0	1	T₃₈(b,c,e)=0.022 5	14
T₄₁(a,b,c,d)=0.103 7	4	T₃₉(b,d,e)=0.046 6	9
T₄₂(a,b,c,e)=0.061 6	6	T₃₁₀(c,d,e)=0.048 9	7
T₄₃(a,b,d,e)=0.103 6	5	T₂₁(a,b)=0.008 1	21
T₄₄(a,c,d,e)=0.121 2	2	T₂₂(a,c)=0.013 5	18
T₄₅(b,c,d,e)=0.116 0	3	T₂₃(a,d)=0.014 2	17
T₃₁(a,b,c)=0.029 0	13	T₂₄(a,e)=0.001 1	25
T₃₂(a,b,d)=0.047 9	8	T₂₅(b,c)=0.009 5	19
T₃₃(a,b,e)=0.017 0	16	T₂₆(b,d)=0.008 4	20
T₃₄(a,c,d)=0.035 9	11	T₂₇(b,e)=0.003 4	24
T₃₅(a,c,e)=0.021 1	15	T₂₈(c,d)=0.007 4	22
T₃₆(a,d,e)=0.029 4	12	T₂₉(c,e)=0.005 6	23
T₃₇(b,c,d)=0.040 2	10	T₂₁₀(d,e)=0.000 4	26

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