多源流理论视域下的地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理策略

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0792

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 181-188.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0792

多源流理论视域下的地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理策略

王起全¹(), 杨鑫刚²^,^**(), 蓝军¹, 张以波¹

¹ 中国劳动关系学院安全工程学院,北京,100048
² 中国劳动关系学院劳动教育学院,北京,100048

收稿日期:2023-05-10 修回日期:2023-08-12 出版日期:2023-11-28
通讯作者:
**杨鑫刚(1982—),男,河北邯郸人,硕士,讲师,主要从事劳动安全、劳动教育等方面的研究。E-mail:xingang2005@126.com。
作者简介:
王起全 (1976—),男,山东齐河人,博士,教授,主要从事公共安全应急管理、风险评价、大数据预警分析等方面的研究。E-mail:wqq_100@163.com。
杨鑫刚讲师
基金资助:
中国劳动关系学院一般项目(21XYJS010)

Emergency management strategy of subway stampede accident based on multi-stream theory

WANG Qiquan¹(), YANG Xingang²^,^**(), LAN Jun¹, ZHANG Yibo¹

¹ School of Safety Engineering,China University of Labor Relations, Beijing 100048,China
² School of Labor Education,China University of Labor Relations, Beijing 100048,China

Received:2023-05-10 Revised:2023-08-12 Published:2023-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为预防地铁拥挤踩踏事故的发生,构建地铁拥挤踩踏事故多源流分析模型,对地铁拥挤踩踏事故的人群源流、空间源流、时间源流、情绪源流及扰动事件和人群拥挤时间窗进行分析和研究,总结归纳地铁拥挤踩踏事故的演化过程,寻找不同阶段各个源流的特点及其影响因素,探究地铁踩踏事故发生演化机制。结果表明:时间源流的高峰节点、空间源流的脆弱性区域、人群源流的人群拥挤、情绪源流的恐慌情绪是地铁拥挤踩踏事故多源流分析模型的关键节点,当4流交汇,扰动事件发生,人群拥挤时间窗开启,应急专家的介入程度,总体态势控制状况将决定是否发生地铁拥挤踩踏事故。人群源流既是事故发生的基础诱因又是事故最终的承载体,应建立完善地铁站内大流量人群预警监控系统、风险监测体系,并构建各类灾情信息共享机制等应急管理策略。

关键词: 多源流理论, 地铁拥挤踩踏事故, 应急管理, 演化机制, 人群源流

Abstract:

In order to prevent the occurrence of subway stampede accidents, a multi-stream flow analysis model for subway overcrowding and stampede accidents was constructed. By analyzing and researching the crowd stream, spatial stream, time stream, emotional stream, disturbance events, and crowd overcrowding time windows of subway stampede accidents, the evolution process of subway stampede accidents was summarized, and the characteristics and influencing factors of each stream at different stages were searched. The evolution mechanism of subway stampede accidents includes peak nodes of the time stream, vulnerable areas of the spatial stream, crowd crowding of the crowd stream, and panic emotions of the emotional stream. These are key nodes in the multi-stream analysis model of subway stampede accidents. When the four streams intersect, disturbance events occur, the crowd crowding time window opens, and the intervention level of emergency experts, and the overall situation control will determine whether a subway stampede accident occurs. The analysis results show that the crowd stream is not only the fundamental cause of accidents but also the ultimate carrier of accidents. It is necessary to establish and improve the early warning and monitoring system for large crowds in subway stations, and establish emergency management strategies such as various disaster information sharing mechanisms to prevent subway stampede accidents.

Key words: multi-stream theory, subway stampede accident, emergency management, evolutionary mechanism, crowd stream

王起全, 杨鑫刚, 蓝军, 张以波. 多源流理论视域下的地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理策略[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 181-188.

WANG Qiquan, YANG Xingang, LAN Jun, ZHANG Yibo. Emergency management strategy of subway stampede accident based on multi-stream theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(11): 181-188.

图/表 4

参考文献 18

[1]	卢文刚, 谭喆. 城市公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故防范处置研究:以韩国梨泰院踩踏事故为例[J]. 中国应急救援, 2023(1):4-10.
	LU Wengang, TAN Zhe. Prevention and response to crowd crush and stampede in city public places: a case study of the stampede accident in south Korea[J]. China Emergency Rescue, 2023(1):4-10.
[2]	佟瑞鹏, 孙大力, 郭子萌. 基于“隐喻”的风险事件分类模型及其转化关系[J]. 安全, 2020, 41(7):8-15.
	TONG Ruipeng, SUN Dali, GUO Zimeng. Risk event classification model and its transformation relationship based on "metaphor"[J]. Safety & Security, 2020, 41(7):8-15.
[3]	张以波. 地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理研究[D]. 北京: 中国劳动关系学院, 2019.
	ZHANG Yibo. Research on emergency management of subway crowded and stampeded[D]. Beijing: China University of Labor Relations, 2019.
[4]	刘煜, 纪红波, 张格学. 城市轨道交通运营企业应急预案体系规范化建设的探讨[J]. 城市轨道交通研究, 2019, 22(9):10-13,20.
	LIU Yu, JI Hongbo, ZHANG Gexue. Establishment of emergency plan system for urban rail transit operating enterprises[J]. Urban Mass Transit, 2019, 22(9):10-13,20.
[5]	顾宗超, 陆伟, 大佛俊泰. 基于决策层级理论的地下行人系统时空行为研究[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2022, 18(增1):1-13.
	GU Zongchao, LU Wei, OSARAGI T. Study on spatio-temporal behavior in underground pedestrian system based on choice level theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2022, 18(S1):1-13.
[6]	孙贵磊, 王亚琪, 赵欣圆, 等. 基于Pathfinder的地铁乘客疏散风险量化与分级研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(11):176-181. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.028
	SUN Guilei, WANG Yaqi, ZHAO Xinyuan, et al. Research on evacuation risk quantization and classification for subway passengers based on Pathfinder[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11):176-181. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.028
[7]	潘福全, 泮海涛, 亓荣杰, 等. 地铁密集人群风险等级与预警标准研究[J]. 交通科技与经济, 2019, 21(5):6-11,19.
	PAN Fuquan, PAN Haitao, QI Rongjie, et al. A study of risk level and early warning standard of dense metro crowds[J]. Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications, 2019, 21(5):6-11,19.
[8]	LIU Yan, WANG Tong, DING Hui, et al. Research and application on risk assessment DEA model of crowd crushing and trampling accidents in subway stations[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2013, 43(1):494 -498. doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2012.08.085
[9]	约翰·W·金登[美]. 议程、备选方案与公共政策[M]. 丁煌,复兴,译. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2004:226-231.
	JOHN W Kingdon. Agendas, aliternatives and public polices[M].DING Huang, FU Xing,Translated. Beijing: China Renmin University Press(CRUP), 2004:226-231.
[10]	拉雷·N·格斯顿[美]. 公共政策的制定:程序和原理[M].朱子文,译. 重庆: 重庆出版社, 2001:23-25.
	LARRY N Gesron. Public policy making: procedure and principle[M].ZHU Ziwen,Translated. Chongqing: Chongqing Press, 2001:23-25.
[11]	孙贵磊, 颜峻, 孟燕华, 等. 人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故风险分级模型及预防对策[J]. 安全, 2020, 41(5):26-33.
	SUNGuilei, YAN Jun, MENG Yanhua, et al. Analvsis on risk classification model and prevention countermeasures for stampede accident in crowded places[J]. Safety & Security, 2020, 41(5):26-33.
[12]	孙晓婉, 龙盛壹, 阳富强, 等. 福建省应急产业现状及发展对策[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(增1):12-19.
	SUNXiaowan, LONG Shengyi, YANG Fuqiang, et al. Present situation and development countermeasure of emergency industry in Fujian province[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(S1):12-19. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.S1.0160
[13]	HELBING D, JOHANSSON A. Pedestrian, crowd, and evacuation dynamics[M]. New York: Springer New York, 2009:1-28.
[14]	GB/T 10000—1988,中国成年人人体尺寸[S].
	GB/T10000-1988,Human dimensions of Chinese adults[S].
[15]	王紫玉. 基于颗粒流动态仿真的城轨车站客流局部风险辨识方法[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2022.
	WANGZiyu. Local risk identification method of passenger flow in urban rail stations based on particle flow dynamic simulation[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2022.
[16]	WANG Qiquan, ZHU Qiankun. Risk early warning analysis on vulnerability of metro stampede accident[J]. Advances in Applied Sciences, 2018, 3(2):9-18. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20180302.11
[17]	李秋香, 谢潇然. 基于SIR模型的人群集聚恐慌心理传播研究[J]. 科技与创新, 2019(18):38-40.
	LI Qiuxiang, XIE Xiaoran. Research on panic psychological propagation of crowd gathering based on SIR model[J]. Science and Technology & Innovation, 2019(18):38-40.
[18]	赵子轩, 刘康, 张远辉. 基于数字孪生的室内行人监测系统设计[J]. 现代电子技术, 2023, 46(16):9-14.
	ZHAO Zixuan, LIU Kang, ZHANG Yuanhui. Design of digital-twin-based monitoring system for indoor pedestrian[J]. Modern Electronics Technique, 2023, 46(16):9-14.

多源流理论视域下的地铁拥挤踩踏事故应急管理策略

Emergency management strategy of subway stampede accident based on multi-stream theory

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 4

参考文献 18

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	王斯彤, 龙雪城, 刘伟. 大安全大应急下公共卫生应急管理人才培养的实施路径[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(1): 10-16.
[2]	钱家庆. 电力应急管理专业人才培养机制研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(S1): 1-6.
[3]	许文文, 刘一靓. 风险社会下的社区韧性建设金字塔模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(9): 189-195.
[4]	丛威青, 胡成, 姜传胜. 铁路客运站区应急管理体系改革发展逻辑探析:以北京市为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(7): 164-172.
[5]	程方明, 王琛琛, 袁晓芳. 安全发展视角下城市应急管理能力评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5): 158-167.
[6]	范中启, 戴琳. 区块链技术在应急管理中的应用:热点、挑战与展望[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5): 182-190.
[7]	陆继锋, 李方, 杨洋. 城市社区应急管理文献计量研究与可视化分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5): 199-205.
[8]	欧阳振华, 王琼, 易海洋, 王华. 新时代实战应用型应急管理专业人才培养体系实证研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5): 26-34.
[9]	王兴, 聂百胜, 周小寒, 刘润增. 应急管理诊所教育模式探索[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 16-23.
[10]	刘兰剑, 董永强. 交通基础设施韧性研究:缘起、发展与未来[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 45-51.
[11]	钱剑安, 周汝, 王静虹, 蒋军成, 王华, 赵坤. 《公共应急管理》的SWOT分析及其靶向综合施策[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 8-15.
[12]	冯占科, 钱旺, 王杰. 基于Haddon模型的应急值守系统设计与应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(S2): 211-216.
[13]	尚国银, 栗建平, 张立辉. 大型煤矿企业应急管理工作思考[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(S2): 225-230.
[14]	张文山, 张全柱. 应急指挥与安全在线监测系统应用研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(S2): 231-235.
[15]	代鸿元, 何加平, 潘宏, 王勇飞. 大型水电企业应急管理体系建设[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(S2): 38-43.