基于情景相似的电网企业台风灾害应急决策

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.0304

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升电网企业应对台风灾害的应急准备能力和决策能力,首先,基于情景构建理论和灾害系统理论,分析近15年42起电网企业应对台风灾害的事故案例,构建电网企业台风灾害“事件-情景-场景-任务-能力”结构化层次模型及其指标体系;其次,依据各指标特征(模糊型、判断型、数值型)匹配相应的相似度计算方法;然后,利用G1法与熵值法在确定主、客观权重基础上得出综合权重,从而计算整体相似度和“预警-响应”2阶段相似度;最后,以某市电网企业应对“莫兰蒂”台风为目标案例进行决策研究。结果表明:构建的“事件-情景-场景-任务-能力”结构化层次模型相比于传统模型可实现分阶段检索,更能满足应急过程中预警和响应阶段的决策需求。

关键词: 情景构建, 电网企业, 台风灾害, 应急决策, 相似度

Abstract:

This study aims to improve the emergency preparedness and emergency decision-making ability of power grid enterprises. Firstly, based on the scenario construction theory and disaster system theory, 42 accident cases of power grid enterprises responding to typhoon disasters in recent 15 years were analyzed, and the structured hierarchical model of "event-scenario-scene-task-capability" and its index system of typhoon disaster of power grid enterprises were constructed. According to the characteristics of each index (fuzzy, judgment and numerical), the corresponding similarity calculation methods were matched. G1 method and entropy method were used to determine the subjective and objective weights to obtain the comprehensive weights, so as to calculate the overall similarity and the early-warning and response two-stage similarity. Finally, a decision-making of a power grid enterprise in a certain city in Typhoon "Meranti" was taken as the target case. The results show that, compared with the traditional model, the structured hierarchical model of "event-scenario-scene-task-capability" can realize the phased retrieval, which can better meet the decision-making needs of the early warning and response stage in the emergency process.

Key words: scenario construction, power grid enterprises, typhoon disaster, emergency decision, similarity

盛伟, 关城, 张苏, 傅炜, 王金贵. 基于情景相似的电网企业台风灾害应急决策[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 174-180.

SHENG Wei, GUAN Cheng, ZHANG Su, FU Wei, WANG Jingui. Research on typhoon disaster emergency decision-making of power grid enterprises based on similar scenarios[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(11): 174-180.

图/表 9

图1

表1

“事件-情景-场景-任务-能力”结构化层次模型指标体系

模块	指标	指标说明	指标类型
事件	事件类型E	以台风灾害事件为研究对象	模糊型
情景	电网预警级别X₁	电网企业发布预警Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、(Ⅳ)级按1、2、3、(4)取值	判断型
	电网响应级别X₂	电网企业发布响应Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、(Ⅳ)级按1、2、3、(4)取值	判断型
	台风最大风速X₃/(m·s^-1)	以电网企业发布预警通知所记录的台风最大风速为准	数值型
	降雨量X₄/mm	以电网企业发布预警通知所记录的平均过程降雨量为准	数值型
	台风路径X₅	按台风中心路径划分为未过境、过境、正面登陆3种状态按1、2、3取值	数值型
场景	场景类型X₆	配电线路大面积倒杆、变电站进水、输电线路倒塔断线、护坡坍塌等	模糊型
	35 kV及以上输电线路跳闸占比X₇	受台风影响而未恢复的35 kV及以上输电线路跳闸数占受台风影响前的输电线路数的比值	数值型
	10 kV配电线路停运占比X₈	受台风影响而未恢复的10 kV配电线路停运数占受台风影响前的配电线路数的比值	数值型
	低压用户停电占比X₉	受台风影响而未恢复的停电用户数占受台风影响前的用电用户数的比值	数值型
	电网减供负荷率X₁₀	受台风影响而未恢复的负荷数值占受台风影响前的负荷数值的比值	数值型
任务	预警期间任务明细X₁₁	巡线、重要用户登记、站房值守等	模糊型
	响应期间任务明细X₁₂	巡线、抢修、物资直运、支援、安全督导等	模糊型
	预警时长X₁₃/h	以电网企业首次发布预警启动到预警解除时间为准	数值型
	响应时长X₁₄/h	以电网企业首次发布响应启动到响应解除时间为准	数值型
能力	队伍专业类型X₁₅	配电检修、配电运维、变电检修、变电运维、输电运检、基建等	模糊型
	投入应急人数X₁₆	以电网企业实际投入的应急人员数为准	数值型
	投入应急车辆数X₁₇	以电网企业实际投入的应急车辆数为准	数值型

表1

表2

表3

表4

rt赋值参照

r_t	程度说明
1.0	指标 $x t - 1$ 与指标x_t重要性一样
1.2	指标 $x t - 1$ 与指标x_t稍微重要
1.4	指标 $x t - 1$ 与指标x_t明显重要
1.6	指标 $x t - 1$ 与指标x_t强烈重要
1.8	指标 $x t - 1$ 与指标x_t极端重要
1.1,1.3,1.5,1.7	2个相邻程度的中间值

表4

表5

指标权重信息

指标	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₄	X₁₅	X₁₆	X₁₇
$w' t$	4.830	7.778	5.312	3.959	6.375	9.243	6.293	7.552	7.703	5.937	4.505	5.497	4.023	6.156	4.137	7.364	3.336
$w " t$	11.586	5.154	7.148	7.072	4.039	4.409	3.560	3.465	3.561	3.375	6.125	4.043	5.336	2.257	7.141	7.023	14.707
$w t$	10.362	7.423	7.031	5.184	4.768	7.546	4.148	4.845	5.079	3.710	5.109	4.115	3.975	2.574	5.470	9.576	9.085

表5

图2

表6

表7

目标案例相似度检索排名

$E i$ 排名	案例编号	$P i$	$A i$	$E i$
1	7	85.90	77.09	82.75
2	3	78.73	87.03	81.69
3	13	72.91	71.01	72.23

表7

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专业	场景类型	特征属性值	专业	场景类型	特征属性值
配电	配电线路大面积倒杆	1	变电	变电站户内设备进(渗)水	21
	配电线路异物外破	2		变电站六氟化硫气体大量泄漏	22
	配电站房进水	3		变压器油大量泄漏	23
	︙	︙		︙	︙
输电	输电线路导线断股	12	基建	施工便道水毁	58
	输电线路倒塔断线	13		基坑坍塌	59
	电缆终端接地线、避雷器接地线断线	14		边坡坍塌	60
	︙	︙		︙	︙

编号	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₄	X₁₅	X₁₆	X₁₇
1	3	3	42	33	1	{…}	0	0.052	0.05	0.021	{…}	{…}	25	25	{…}	440	192
2	3、2	3、2	50	195	1	{…}	0	0.119	0.185	0.153	{…}	{…}	33	33	{…}	905	156
	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	{︙}	︙	︙	︙	︙	{︙}	{︙}	︙	︙	{︙}	︙	︙
42	1	1	58	184	2	{…}	0.224	0.566	0.215	0.244	{…}	{…}	85	85	{…}	1 509	447