中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 33-40.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.006

• 安全工程技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域铁路运输安全态势表征与评估方法

闫旭1,2, 彭其渊1,2 教授, 殷勇**1,2 副教授, 李文新1,2   

  1. 1.西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 611756;
    2.西南交通大学 综合交通运输国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 611756
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-09 修回日期:2020-03-10 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2021-01-27
  • 通讯作者: **殷勇(1976—),男,湖北随州人,博士,副教授,主要从事于轨道交通相关的线网规划、枢纽布局以及客流预测。E-mail:yinyong@swjtu.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:闫旭(1990—),男,内蒙古包头人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为轨道交通运输组织、运输态势评估与推演。E-mail:yanxu@my.swjtu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB1200700); 国家自然科学基金资助(U1834209)。

Characterization and assessment of safety situation for regional railway transportation

YAN Xu1,2, PENG Qiyuan1,2, YIN Yong1,2, LI Wenxin1,2   

  1. 1. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China;
    2. National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China
  • Received:2020-01-09 Revised:2020-03-10 Online:2020-04-28 Published:2021-01-27

摘要: 为保障区域铁路运输安全、提升综合管理水平,首先,以事故多属性分析为切入点,表征区域铁路运输安全态势,建立态势评估的表征指标体系,并给出相应的量化方法;从相对距离和相对趋向2个层面,构建基于组合权重的改进理想点法(TOPSIS)-余弦相似度评估模型,初步估计涉及事故等级与性质的相关参数;实证分析2016—2018年国内某区域铁路运输安全事故统计数据,并通过2组对比试验验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法能合理表征区域铁路运输的安全态势,并从相对距离和相对趋向2个层面评估其优劣与波动程度,从而为区域铁路运输的安全管理决策提供依据。

关键词: 区域铁路运输, 事故分析, 态势评估, 改进理想点法(TOPSIS), 余弦相似度

Abstract: In order to ensure safety of regional railway transportation and improve its comprehensive management level, safety situation of regional railway transportation was characterized through accident multi-attribute analysis, a characterization indicator system of situation assessment was established and corresponding quantitative methods were presented. Then, an improved TOPSIS-Cosine Similarity assessment model based on combined weights was constructed from levels of relative distance and relative trend, and parameters concerning accident grade and nature were preliminarily estimated. Finally, a real-life case study was carried out according to statistical accident data in a certain region of China from 2016 to 2018, and effectiveness of the model was verified by two sets of comparative tests. The results show that the proposed method can reasonably characterize safety situation of regional railway transportation, and evaluate its pros and cons as well as its fluctuation degree from relative distance and relative trend, thus providing a basis for its safety management decision-making.

Key words: regional railway transportation, accident analysis, situation assessment, improved technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, cosine similarity

中图分类号: