中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9): 103-108.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.09.018

• 安全工程技术科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

跨省承包对施工安全状况演变的影响研究

徐晟1,2 讲师, 倪清清3   

  1. 1 长安大学 技术与经济管理学院,陕西 西安 710064
    2 长安大学 陕西省交通基础设施建设与 管理数字化工程研究中心,陕西 西安 710064
    3 长安大学 建筑工程学院,陕西 西安 710064
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-31 修回日期:2018-07-25 出版日期:2018-09-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
  • 作者简介:徐晟(1987—),女,江西赣州人,博士,讲师,主要从事建设安全管理及信息化方面的研究。E-mail:sheng.xu@chd.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(51708039);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2017JQ7005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310823170432)。

Research on influence of trans-provincial contracting on evolution of construction safety

XU Sheng1,2, NI Qingqing3   

  1. 1 School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710064, China
    2 Research Center of Digital Construction and Management for Transport Infrastructure in Shaanxi Province, Xi'an Shanxi 710064, China
    3 School of Civil Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710061, China
  • Received:2018-05-31 Revised:2018-07-25 Online:2018-09-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要: 为研究跨省承包对施工安全的影响,运用空间马尔科夫链探讨区域空间关系在施工安全状况演变过程中的作用。以我国各省份2012—2016年的事故率为依据,将各省份施工安全状况分为5类;针对不同的施工安全状况,分别构建马尔科夫转移矩阵和空间马尔科夫转移矩阵;通过计算以空间滞后为条件的2012—2016年各省份施工安全状况的转移概率,分析各省份受到其周围省份跨省承包商的影响方向和影响程度。研究表明:空间马尔科夫链能更准确地展现区域空间关系在施工安全状况演变过程中的作用;跨省承包对施工安全状况一般和较差的省份有改善作用,但对施工安全状况良好和较好的省份有负面影响;同时,施工安全状况越好,抵御负面影响的能力越强。

关键词: 施工安全, 事故分析, 跨省承包, 状态演变, 区域空间关系, 转移概率

Abstract: The spatial Markov chain method was adopted to explore the role of regional spatial relationships in the evolution of construction safety statues. Firstly, the construction safety statues of each province was classified into 5 different clusters by the accident rates in each province from 2012 to 2016. Then, traditional Markov chain method and spatial Markov chain method were used to construct a transfer matrix of construction safety statues respectively. Finally, the transferring probabilities of the construction safety statues in provinces of China from 2012 to 2016 were calculated under the condition of spatial lags, to analyze the influencing directions and extent of contractors from neighboring provinces on provinces with different construction safety statues. Results show that the spatial Markov chain method was more accurate in presenting the effect of regional spatial relationship on the evolution of construction safety statues, that trans-provincial contracting has a positive effect on the provinces with general and poor construction safety, but has a negative impact on the provinces with excellent and good construction safety,and that provinces with better construction safety are more resistible to negative impacts.

Key words: construction safety, accidents analysis, trans-provincied contracting, statues evolution, regional spatial relationships, transferring probability

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