应急演练“情景-响应”模型的结构相似度构建方法*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.025

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 182-188.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.025

应急演练“情景-响应”模型的结构相似度构建方法^*

鲁金涛工程师

应急管理部研究中心,北京 100013

收稿日期:2021-07-20 修回日期:2021-09-15 出版日期:2021-10-28 发布日期:2022-04-28
作者简介:鲁金涛 (1988—),男,湖南常德人,硕士,工程师,主要从事城市公共安全、城市风险评估和安全生产政策等方面的研究。E-mail:lujintao1415@163.com。

Structural similarity construction method of "scenario-response" model for emergency drills

LU Jintao

Research Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100013,China

Received:2021-07-20 Revised:2021-09-15 Online:2021-10-28 Published:2022-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更好地将“情景-响应”模型应用于应急管理领域,采用结构相似法模拟应急演练情景。首先,构建层次结构情景模型,即事件-环境-场景状态-任务-应急行动-资源主体模块;然后,提出各模块情景相似度的计算方法和应急演练情景相似度评价矩阵;最后,将结构相似性分析方法和“情景-响应”模型结合应用于油气爆燃事故和油品泄漏事故中。结果表明:采用结构相似度方法设计并计算得到目前已有应急演练方案与建议应急预案的相似度,能够获取当前形势下突发事件的建议应急预案。

关键词: 应急演练, “情景-响应”模型, 相似度, 突发事件, 油气爆燃事故, 油品泄漏事故

Abstract: In order to better apply "scenario-response" model to the field of emergency management, emergency drill scenarios were established by using structural similarity method. Firstly, a hierarchical scenario model was constructed, i.e. "event-environment-scenario state-task-emergency action-resource subject" module. Secondly, calculation methods of each module's scenario similarity and its evaluation matrix were proposed. Finally, structural similarity analysis method was adopted to verify application of the model in oil and gas explosion accident,oil spill accidents. The results show that the structural similarity method is used to design and calculate the similarity between the currently available emergency exercise plans and the proposed emergency plan to obtain the proposed emergency plan in the current situation.

Key words: emergency drills, "scenario-response"model, structural similarity, emergencies, oil and gas explosion accident, oil spill accidents

中图分类号:

X928.04

鲁金涛. 应急演练“情景-响应”模型的结构相似度构建方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(10): 182-188.

LU Jintao. Structural similarity construction method of "scenario-response" model for emergency drills[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(10): 182-188.

参考文献

[1] 佟瑞鹏,王露露,李虹玮,等.安全管理、风险管理与应急管理的关系探讨:基于大安全理念视角[J].中国安全科学学报,2021,31(5):36-44.
TONG Ruipeng,WANG Lulu,LI Hongwei, et al. Discussion on relationship between safety management, risk management and emergency management based on Macro-security view[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2021,31(5):36-44.
[2] 王云才,牛聚粉.基于知识图谱的应急管理研究态势分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(4):171-176.
WANG Yuncai, NIU Jufen. Emergency management researching situation analysis based on knowledge map[J]. China Safety Science Journal ,2012,22(4):171-176.
[3] 徐淑华,陈建新,祁慧.基层网格化应急治理:主要问题及改进路径[J].中国安全科学学报,2021,31(1):8-17.
XU Shuhua,CHEN Kinsun,QI Hui. Grassroots grid emergency governance:main challenges and improvement paths[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2021,31(1):8-17.
[4] 钟永光,毛中根,翁文国,等.非常规突发事件应急管理研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):911-918.
ZHONG Yongguang, MAO Zhonggen, WENG Wenguo, et al. Progress of "study on unconventional emergencies management[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice ,2012,32(5):911-918.
[5] MANOJ M C, SRIVASTAVA J, RAJ P, et al. A 2000 year multi-proxy evidence of natural/anthropogenicinfluence on climate from the Southwest Coast of India[J].Journal of Earth Science,2020,31(5):1 029-1 044.
[6] 刘喜平,万常选.有效的XML检索结果的相似性度量[J].南京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(5):629-637.
LIU Xiping, WAN Changxuan. Effective similarity measure for XML retrieval results[J]. Journal of Nanjing University:Natural Science, 2009,45(5):629-637.
[7] 黄悦莹. 面向火灾的室内三维应急疏散寻径研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2019.
HUANG Yueying. Fire-oriented indoor 3D emergency evacuation pathfinding study[D]. Chengdu: University of Electronic Science and Technology, 2019.
[8] 陈震,宋绍成.基于我国突发事件应急管理文献挖掘的重大疫情防控策略研究[J].情报科学,2020,38(8):103-111.
CHEN Zhen, SONG Shaocheng. The prevention and control strategies of major epidemic based on the literatures mining of emergency management in China[J].Information Science, 2020,38(8):103-111.
[9] 任常兴,李晋,张网,等.涉冬奥会场馆外工业场所火灾风险预警指标[J].消防科学与技术,2020,39(2):270-274.
REN Changxing LI Jin ZHANG Wang, et al. Fire risk alarming index of industrial buildings outside of winter Olympic venu[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2020,39(2):270-274.
[10] 罗文婷,王艳辉,贾利民,等.改进层次分析法在铁路应急预案评价中的应用研究[J].铁道学报,2008,30(6):24-28.
LUO Wenting, WANG Yanhui, JIA Limin, et al. Application of improved AHP in evaluation of railway emergency plans[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2008,30(6):24-28.
[11] SONG Bo ,YAN Wei ,ZHANG Tianjiao . Cross-border e-commerce commodity risk assessment using text mining and fuzzy rule-based reasoning[J]. Advanced Engineering Informatics,2019,40:69-80.
[12] 朱权洁,张震,曹雷,等.矿山井巷模型快速构建与突水避灾三维动态仿真[J].中国安全科学学报,2021,31(2):149-157.
ZHU Quanjie,ZHANG Zhen,CAO Lei, et al. Research on 3D mine shaft model construction and dynamic simulation of water inrush disaster avoiding[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021,31(2):149-157.
[13] 张聆晔,吕靖.风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址[J].中国安全科学学报,2019,29(9):173-180.
ZHANG Lingye,LYU Jing. Location of maritime emergency supplies repertories considering risk uncertainty[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019,29(9):173-180.
[14] 王起全,刘志刚,杨鑫刚,等.化工园区重大危险源风险情景构建分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2020,30(8):63-69.
WANG Qiquan,LIU Zhigang,YANG Xingang, et al.Scenario construction analysis of major hazard sources in chemical industry parks [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020,30(8):63-69.
[15] 冯杰,张鉴燮,于振,等.基于任务特征的电网企业应急预案体系重构[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(10):146-151.
FENG Jie,ZHANG Jianxie,YU Zhen, et al. Reconstruction of emergency plan system in power grid enterprises based on task characteristics[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2020,16(10):146-151.
[16] 邓青,施成浩,王辰阳,等.基于E-LVC技术的重大综合灾害耦合情景推演方法[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2021,61(6):487-493.
DENG Qing,SHI Chenghao,WANG Chenyang,et al. Coupled disaster scenario evaluation and response method based on the E-LVC technology[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology, 2021,61(6):487-493.

应急演练“情景-响应”模型的结构相似度构建方法^*

Structural similarity construction method of "scenario-response" model for emergency drills

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	赵楚凡, 米传民, 周志鹏, 方晶. 基于组合关联分析模型的电力人身事故关键致因链筛选[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 99-106.
[2]	陈莉婷, 郑晶, 高建清, 梁娟. 基于FastDTW案例检索的台风灾害应急方案生成[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 171-176.
[3]	宋英华, 白明轩, 马亚萍, 吕伟, 霍非舟. 考虑区域灾情分级的应急物资公平调度优化模型^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(1): 172-179.
[4]	朱伟, 王亚飞, 张鹏, 林天埜. 突发事件下多路径行人通行行为模型^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(7): 151-156.
[5]	戢晓峰, 杨春丽, 郝京京, 覃文文. 国内外应急物流研究热点对比与展望^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(12): 144-152.
[6]	徐淑华, 陈建新, 祁慧. 基层网格化应急治理:主要问题及改进路径[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(1): 8-17.
[7]	张自欣, 王亮, 王应明. 基于语言集信息的突发事件预警方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(8): 93-100.
[8]	兰国辉, 陈亚树, 荀守奎. 基于RS-IPA的煤矿突发事件应急救援能力评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(5): 169-176.
[9]	闫旭, 彭其渊, 殷勇, 李文新. 区域铁路运输安全态势表征与评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(4): 33-40.
[10]	牟能冶, 康秋萍, 贾程方. 突发事件影响下的城市快递网络脆弱性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 125-132.
[11]	郑登锋, 付明福, 龚晓凤, 朱晓曼, 谭波. 基于情景构建的多地多场景应急演练[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(6): 171-176.
[12]	杨雪, 康红霞, 张延铭. 基于PSR与AT的海上突发事件应急信息需求分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(4): 140-145.
[13]	夏陈红, 王威, 马东辉. 城市综合灾害风险等级组合评价的SD模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(4): 164-170.
[14]	周平, 裴瑞江, 陈滋顶. 基于3D应急演练的铁路职工安全素质提升研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(S2): 138-142.
[15]	尹冰艳刘卫红. 我国高速铁路应急救援机制的完善^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(S2): 180-184.