中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 233-240.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.0327

• 防灾减灾技术与工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发事件应急管理审计演化博弈研究

李志强 教授1(), 范研佳1, 孙羽2   

  1. 1 河南大学 商学院,河南 开封 475000
    2 中国工商银行 三门峡分行,河南 三门峡 472000
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-12 修回日期:2025-02-20 出版日期:2025-04-28
  • 作者简介:

    李志强 (1972—),男,河南淅川人,博士,教授,从事审计与控制、博弈论、应急管理研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金资助(19BJY006); 河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2021-ZDJH-058); 河南省科技厅软科学研究重点项目(202400410048)

Research on evolutionary game of emergency management audit

LI Zhiqiang1(), FAN Yanjia1, SUN Yu2   

  1. 1 School of Business, Henan University, Kaifeng Henan 475000, China
    2 Sanmenxia Branch, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Sanmenxia Henan 472000, China
  • Received:2024-12-12 Revised:2025-02-20 Published:2025-04-28

摘要:

为提高地方政府突发事件应急管理能力和效果,推进应急管理体系和能力现代化,运用博弈理论构建博弈模型,探讨审计机关、当地政府及周边政府三方之间演化博弈关系,通过模型稳定性分析及数值模拟探究影响三者履责积极性的根源,并根据分析结果提出相应的对策建议。结果表明:应急管理的效益大小是影响当地政府与周边政府行为向何种方向演化的关键;另外,审计机关积极监督的概率与审计成本的大小对双方政府的行为选择都有影响,双方政府的应急管理参与意愿对彼此也有影响;对于审计机关,审计成本与受到的问责大小是影响其行为选择的关键。

关键词: 突发事件, 应急管理审计, 当地政府, 审计机关, 演化博弈

Abstract:

In order to improve the emergency management ability and effect of local governments and promote the modernization of emergency management systems and capacity, the game theory was used to construct a game model. The evolutionary game relationship between audit institutions, local governments and surrounding governments was discussed. The root causes of the three were explored through model stability analysis and numerical simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward according to the analysis results. The results show that the benefit of emergency management is the key to the evolution of the behavior of local governments and surrounding governments. In addition, the probability of active supervision by audit institutions and the size of audit costs have an impact on the behavior choices of the two governments, and the willingness of the two governments to participate in emergency management also has an impact on each other. For audit institutions, the cost of auditing and the degree of accountability are key factors that influence their behavioral choices.

Key words: emergencies, emergency management audit, local government, audit institutions, evolutionary game

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