中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 241-246.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1107

• 防灾减灾技术与工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于社会网络的县域洪灾应急指挥能力成熟度评估模型及实证

钱洪伟 教授1(), 李欣垚2   

  1. 1 河南理工大学 应急管理学院,河南 焦作 454000
    2 辽宁工程技术大学 安全科学与工程学院,辽宁 葫芦岛 125000
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-12 修回日期:2025-02-15 出版日期:2025-04-28
  • 作者简介:

    钱洪伟 (1979—),男,河北沧州人,博士,教授,主要从事应急指挥与决策数字化等方面的研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(23YJAZH110); 河南省地方标准编制项目(H24-062); 河南理工大学“双一流”创建工程培育项目(AQ20230774)

Evaluation model and empirical study on maturity of county-level flood emergency command capability based on social networks

QIAN Hongwei1(), LI Xinyao2   

  1. 1 School of Emergency Management, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo Henan 454000, China
    2 School of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125000, China
  • Received:2024-11-12 Revised:2025-02-15 Published:2025-04-28

摘要:

为深入了解并评估县域应对洪涝灾害时的指挥能力和现状,通过文献分析法,确定12个主要影响因素;利用Ucinet软件进行社会网络分析,利用Netdraw软件进行可视化处理,绘制出影响因素之间的社会网络关系图;通过计算影响因素的出入度、中心度,做指标分级处理,并借鉴指挥控制能力成熟度模型,构建出基于社会网络的县域洪灾应急指挥能力成熟度评估模型;选择濮阳县作为实证研究对象,通过问卷调查法和访谈法,收集来自濮阳县24个乡镇共342条数据,评估濮阳县洪灾应急指挥能力。结果表明:用社会网络进行指标分级具有可行性,该指标体系能科学准确反映县域洪灾应急指挥综合水平,该评估模型可有效评价县域洪灾应急指挥能力成熟度等级。

关键词: 社会网络, 县域洪灾, 应急指挥能力, 成熟度, 评估模型

Abstract:

To gain a deep understanding and evaluate the command capability and current status of counties in response to flood disasters, this paper identified 12 major influencing factors through literature analysis. Social network analysis was conducted using Ucinet software, and Netdraw software was utilized for visualization to depict the social network relationship diagram among these influencing factors. By calculating the in-degree and out-degree, as well as centrality of the influencing factors, indicator classification was performed. Drawing on the maturity model of command and control capability, an assessment model based on social networks for the maturity of county-level flood disaster emergency command capability was developed. Puyang county was selected as the empirical research object. Through questionnaires and interviews, a total of 342 data entries from 24 townships in Puyang County were collected to evaluate the county's flood disaster emergency command capability. The results indicate that it is feasible to classify indicators hierarchically through social network analysis. The established indicator system is scientifically and accurately reflected in the comprehensive operational level of county-level flood disaster emergency command. The assessment model can effectively evaluate the maturity levels of emergency command capability.

Key words: social network, county-level flood disaster, emergency command capability, maturity, evaluation model

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