中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 61-69.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.0999

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于PAR模型的城市地下空间施工事故人为致因分析

仰玉江1(), 王义保2,**(), 李冲1   

  1. 1 中国矿业大学 应急治理与国家安全研究院, 江苏 徐州 221116
    2 中国矿业大学 应急管理学院, 江苏 徐州 221116
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-20 修回日期:2025-06-17 出版日期:2025-08-28
  • 通信作者:
    **王义保(1974—),男,江苏丰县人,博士,教授,主要从事应急管理、公共管理与社会治理、安全生产与公共政策等方面的研究。E-mail:
  • 作者简介:

    仰玉江 (2001—),男,安徽安庆人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为应急管理、地下空间应急与安全。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目资助(23ZDA117); 国家社科基金重点项目资助(22AZD086); 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助(23YJC630173)

Analysis of human causative factors in urban underground space construction accidents based on PAR modeling

YANG Yujiang1(), WANG Yibao2,**(), LI Chong1   

  1. 1 Institute of Emergency Governance and National Security, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China
    2 School of Emergency Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China
  • Received:2025-03-20 Revised:2025-06-17 Published:2025-08-28

摘要: 为减少城市地下空间施工事故发生,采用内容分析与社会网络分析相结合的方法,解构事故人为致因。首先,基于感知-分析-应答(PAR)事故致因模型,构建城市地下空间施工事故人因“主体-因子-状态”分析框架;然后,根据城市地下空间施工事故案例,编码提取致因因子,并明确致因主体关系与致因状态;最后,通过网络共现、中心性分析和相关性分析绘制人为致因结构模型,以此解析城市地下空间施工事故人因结构。结果表明:坍塌、中毒和窒息事故是城市地下空间施工事故的主要类型;导致事故发生的高频人因共计24项,包含9项核心人为致因。人为致因结构模型显示,致因主体中决策管理层安全责任尤为重大;核心致因因子“安全技术交底不到位”扮演风险枢纽角色,深刻影响致因网络;致因状态间存在较强关联效应,尤以信息缺失状态与其他状态发生特征明显。

关键词: 感知-分析-应答(PAR)事故致因模型, 城市地下空间, 施工事故, 人为致因, 社会网络分析

Abstract:

In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents during construction in urban underground spaces, a combined methodology of content analysis and social network analysis was employed to deconstruct human factors in accidents during urban underground space construction for risk reduction. Firstly, based on PAR accident causation model, a tri-dimensional analytical framework of "Subject-Factor-State" was developed for human-induced accidents in urban underground construction. Secondly, authentic accident cases were utilized to encode and extract causal factors, while causal subjects and states were systematically identified. Finally, a structural model of human-induced causation was constructed through network co-occurrence, centrality analysis, and correlation analysis to reveal inherent causal mechanisms. Key findings reveal: Collapse, poisoning, and suffocation constitute the predominant accident types, with 24 high-frequency human factors identified, including 9 core contributing factors. The structural model demonstrates that decision-making managers bear critical safety responsibilities among causal subjects. The core factor "inadequate safety technical disclosure", functions as a pivotal risk hub significantly influencing the causal network. Causal states exhibit strong interdependencies, particularly highlighting the pronounced interaction between information deficiency and other states.

Key words: perceive-analyze-reply(PAR) accident causation model, urban underground space, construction accidents, human causative factors, social networking analysis

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