恶劣天气下民用机场运输服务韧性双层评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1617

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高民用机场应对恶劣天气的能力,从整体和要素2个层面提出机场运输服务韧性双层评估模型,第1层模型:基于云模型的机场整体韧性评估,在明确机场运输服务韧性定义和内涵基础上,从机场的吸收-适应-恢复-优化4个核心韧性能力出发,建立包含28个评价要素的韧性指标体系,并基于云模型确定评价标准云,逐层计算各层指标云数字特征值,评估机场整体韧性水平;第2层模型:基于“重要度+障碍度”的民用机场关键韧性要素识别,考虑对机场整体韧性的贡献和阻碍程度,提出机场要素的重要度和障碍度表征方法,进而综合识别机场韧性的关键要素,并以A机场为例开展验证分析。结果表明:文中构建的指标体系和评估模型能够准确评估机场运输服务韧性水平、识别关键韧性要素;A机场的运输服务韧性总体得分为0.284 7,处于高韧性水平,与实际情况相符,证明文中所提模型具有一定的科学性和有效性;员工应急救援水平、员工心理素质水平、员工的工作年限等为影响机场韧性水平的关键要素,需重点关注和提升。

关键词: 恶劣天气, 民用机场, 运输服务韧性, 双层评估模型, 云模型, 关键韧性要素

Abstract:

In order to enhance the ability of civil airports to cope with adverse weather conditions, a two-layer assessment model for airport transportation service resilience was proposed, addressing both the overall level and specific elements. The first-layer model—a cloud-based assessment of airport overall resilience—was based on a clear definition and understanding of airport transportation service resilience. Starting from the four core resilience capabilities of absorption, adaptation, recovery, and optimization, a resilience indicator system comprising 28 evaluation elements was established. Based on the cloud model, evaluation standard clouds were determined, and the numerical characteristics of each layer of indicator clouds were calculated layer by layer to assess the overall resilience level of the airport. The second-layer model-identification of key resilience elements of civil airports was based on "importance + obstacle degree" of airport elements considering the contribution and obstruction degree to the overall resilience of the airport, proposed methods to characterize the importance and obstacle degree of airport elements, and comprehensively identified the key elements of airport resilience. Subsequently, a case study was conducted using Airport A as an example. The results indicate that the indicator system and evaluation model constructed in this paper can accurately assess the resilience level of airport transportation services and identify key resilience factors. Airport A's overall transportation service resilience score was 0.284 7, which is at a high resilience level and consistent with the actual situation. Among these, employee emergency rescue capabilities, employee psychological qualities, and employee years of service are key factors affecting airport resilience levels and require special attention and improvement.

Key words: severe weather, civil airport, transportation service resilience, two-layer assessment model, cloud model, key resilience factors

中图分类号:

X949

李航, 刘新月, 胡小兵. 恶劣天气下民用机场运输服务韧性双层评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(9): 78-86.

LI Hang, LIU Xinyue, HU Xiaobing. A two-layer assessment model for resilience of civil airport transport services in severe weather[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 78-86.

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评价等级	评价区间	云数字特征值
低韧性	(0,20]	(0,10.300 0,0.130 9)
较低韧性	(20,40]	(30.900 0,6.366 7,0.080 9)
中韧性	(40,60]	(50,3.934 6,0.050 0)
较高韧性	(60,80]	(69.100 0,6.366 7,0.080 9)
高韧性	(80,100]	(100,10.300 0,0.130 9)

一级指标	一级指标权重	二级指标	二级指标权重	三级评估要素	三级评估要素权重
A	0.240 1	A₁	0.06 16	A₁₁	0.023 6
		A₁	0.06 16	A₁₂	0.038 0
		A₂	0.103 0	A₂₁	0.025 9
				A₂₂	0.029 8
				A₂₃	0.047 3
		A₃	0.075 6	A₃₁	0.035 5
				A₃₂	0.020 2
				A₃₃	0.019 9
B	0.316 6	B₁	0.115 3	B₁₁	0.069 7
		B₁	0.115 3	B₁₂	0.045 6
		B₂	0.087 8	B₂₁	0.056 8
		B₂	0.087 8	B₂₂	0.031 0
		B₃	0.113 5	B₃₁	0.032 6
				B₃₂	0.028 5
				B₃₃	0.029 1
				B₃₄	0.023 3
C	0.242 4	C₁	0.076 6	C₁₁	0.041 8
		C₁	0.076 6	C₁₂	0.034 8
		C₂	0.099 0	C₂₁	0.060 4
		C₂	0.099 0	C₂₂	0.038 6
		C₃	0.067 0	C₃₁	0.045 5
		C₃	0.067 0	C₃₂	0.021 5
D	0.200 8	D₁	0.051 0	D₁₁	0.051 0
		D₂	0.072 6	D₂₁	0.029 5
		D₂	0.072 6	D₂₂	0.043 1
		D3	0.077 3	D₃₁	0.024 7
				D₃₂	0.027 0
				D₃₃	0.025 7

一级指标	一级指标云数字特征
吸收能力A	(82.372 8,18.472 2,7.809 6)
适应能力B	(84.419 3,16.955 2,6.008 5)
恢复能力C	(84.079 6,16.178 1,4.537 9)
优化能力D	(83.600 4,18.913 1,4.205 3)

指标排序	指标	重要度	指标	障碍度
1	员工应急救援水平B₁₁	3.114 0	员工应急救援水平B₁₁	7.471 7
2	受损设备的可恢复性C₂₁	2.792 0	受损设备的可恢复性C₂₁	6.474 8
3	智能化应急系统的建设B₂₁	2.483 3	专业员工的气象分析与防控能力A₁₂	6.110 3
4	员工培训制度与实施D₁₁	2.338 2	员工心理素质水平B₁₂	6.110 3
5	员工心理素质水平B₁₂	2.338 1	智能化应急系统的建设B₂₁	6.088 9
6	应急广播系统的建设水平A₂₃	2.277 0	员工培训制度与实施D₁₁	5.922 7
7	员工开展恢复工作的经验C₁₁	2.237 6	应急抢修方案的制定C₃₁	4.877 5
8	应急抢修方案的制定C₃₁	2.158 5	员工开展恢复工作的经验C₁₁	4.854 3
9	设备设施升级计划与实施D₂₂	1.976 7	应急预案的演练B₃₂	4.073 5
10	沟通渠道的建设水平A₃₁	1.968 4	专业员工的工作年限A₁₁	4.005 6