基于SD-BPNN法的矿工安全生产责任压力演化建模与仿真

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1537

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高煤矿企业安全生产管理的科学性和有效性,以矿工安全生产责任压力为主题进行建模与仿真研究。根据矿工安全生产责任压力量表构建系统动力学(SD)因果反馈图,并收集问卷数据;基于Matlab 2023b软件的神经网络拟合工具,构建反映自变量与因变量关系的反向传播神经网络(BPNN);通过Simulink平台构建系统流图,进而进行动态仿真与情景模拟。研究结果表明:矿工安全生产责任压力及其各维度压力随时间呈现不断扩大趋势;压力源独立作用时,惩罚担忧发挥主导作用,压力源同步作用时,认知压力维度呈现非线性抑制;在压力管理过程中,应注重多维度压力源的综合考量与平衡调整,从而提升煤矿企业安全生产管理体系的效能。

关键词: 系统动力学(SD), 反向传播神经网络(BPNN), 矿工, 安全生产责任压力, 情景模拟

Abstract:

To enhance the scientificity and effectiveness of work safety management in mining enterprises, modeling and simulation studies were conducted focusing on the miners' safety responsibility pressure. A SD causal feedback diagram was constructed based on miners' work safety responsibility pressure scale, and questionnaire data was collected. The BPNN reflecting the relationship between independent and dependent variables was built by using the Neural Network Fitting tool in Matlab 2023b. Furthermore, a system flowchart was established through the Simulink platform to conduct dynamic simulation and scenario simulation. The results show that miners' work safety responsibility pressure and the pressure dimensions tend to increase over time. When pressure sources act independently, the punishment apprehension plays a dominant role, whereas when pressure sources act synchronously, the cognitive pressure dimension demonstrates nonlinear inhibition. In the process of pressure management, comprehensive consideration and balanced adjustment of multidimensional stressors should be emphasized to enhance the effectiveness of work safety management system in coal mining enterprises.

Key words: system dynamics(SD), backpropagation neural networks (BPNN), miner, work safety responsibility pressure, scenario simulation

中图分类号:

X921安全管理(劳动保护)方针、政策及其阐述

陈铁华, 刘瑞康, 李红霞. 基于SD-BPNN法的矿工安全生产责任压力演化建模与仿真[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(9): 70-77.

CHEN Tiehua, LIU Ruikang, LI Hongxia. Modeling and simulation research of miners' work safety responsibility pressure evolution based on SD-BPNN method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 70-77.

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因子	题项
规制压力	安全生产责任制度会带来心理约束感
	安全培训和安全教育增加了我的工作负担
	规制下的安全程序让我觉得复杂
	惩罚机制给我带来压力
	督查和绩效考核让我感到焦虑
责任风险压力	我害怕承担事故责任
	对强制的法律责任感到本能的畏惧
	岗位角色的问责和追究让我倍感压力
	责任追究的代价我不能承受
安全生产要求	安全生产的硬性指标让我焦虑
	严格的安全管理要求让我感到压力
	倒班、加班等工作时间区间让我产生压力
	安全环境、劳动条件艰苦,我担心不能按进度完成任务
职业素养	自身经验和技能不足让我感到压力
	在作业中,时刻谨慎和规范操作让我感到疲累
	事故应急能力和规避意识的不足让我感到压力
	年龄和身体状况让我产生心理压力
认知压力	在安全培训中,由于自身条件限制,我并不能完全了解安全生产责任制
	制度环境复杂性和不确定性让我产生心理压力
	面对制度规范,我会产生心理约束
	因为了解的不全面,使我心理安全感不足

变量类别	变量名称
水平变量L	安全生产责任压力L₁、规制压力L₂、责任风险压力L₃、职业素养压力L₄、安全生产要求压力L₅、认知压力L₆
速率变量R	安全生产责任压力变化量R₁、规制压力变化量R₂、责任风险压力变化量R₃、职业素养压力变化量R₄、安全生产要求压力变化量R₅、认知压力变化量R₆
辅助变量A	应急能力不足A₁、制度约束感A₂、培训负担A₃、责任追究代价A₄、制度规范A₅、安全感缺失A₆、操作疲劳A₇、安全培训成效A₈、管理严格度A₉
常量K	程序复杂性K₁、惩罚担忧K₂、考核紧张K₃、事故责任K₄、法律畏惧K₅、岗位问责K₆、硬性指标焦虑K₇、工作时间负担K₈、环境条件K₉、经验技能匮乏K₁₀、制度复杂性K₁₁、年龄身体负担K₁₂

数据集	L₁	L₂	L₃	L₄	L₅	L₆
训练集	932.67	242.54	205.03	164.08	183.56	137.46
验证集	945.84	237.01	224.85	171.54	170.77	141.66
误差/%	1.39	2.33	8.82	4.35	7.49	2.97

压力	单因素变化率代数和∑δ	全因素变化率δ	偏差 (δ-∑δ)
L₁	10.723	10.717	-0.006
L₂	6.174	6.186	0.012
L₃	20.932	20.945	0.013
L₄	8.655	8.631	-0.024
L₅	10.016	9.993	-0.023
L₆	40.473	6.915	-33.558