面向暴雨灾害的县域适灾韧性演化模型构建及特征分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0754

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为增加基层应灾行为的系统性与灵活性,构建县域适灾韧性三角形模型,以2024年辽宁建昌暴雨为例,使用社会网络分析方法,建立暴雨灾害事件、县域承灾体、应急管理方案间的关联网络,引入时序维度,设计反映县域适灾韧性演化过程的系统动力学模型,以网络节点个体属性作为模型赋值依据。结果表明:县域适灾韧性呈先缓慢下降后平稳上升且增速逐渐加快的演化趋势;在灾前预警阶段,灾害事件、承灾体、应急管理方案分别具备突发性、暴露性、吸收特征,组织准备、通信准备、物料准备、宣传准备最具优化空间;在灾中应对阶段,灾害事件、承灾体、应急管理方案分别具备耦合性与不确定性、敏感性、适应特征,转移群众能力、通信保障机制、电力设施韧性尚存优化空间;在灾后恢复阶段,承灾体、应急管理方案分别具备适应性、调整特征,此时需优化农作物种植结构、提升道路抗洪能力。应急管理方案在灾害应对全周期始终具备学习特征。

关键词: 暴雨灾害, 县域适灾韧性, 动态演化, 社会网络分析, 系统动力学

Abstract:

In order to increase the systematicity and flexibility of disaster response behavior at the grassroots level, a triangle model of county disaster resilience was constructed. Taking the rainstorm in Jianchang, Liaoning Province in 2024 as an example, social network analysis method was used to establish an association network among rainstorm disaster events, county disaster bearing bodies and emergency management plans. The system dynamics model reflecting the evolution process of county disaster resilience was designed by introducing the time series dimension, and the individual attributes of network nodes were used as the basis for model evaluation. The results show that the county disaster resilience shows an evolutionary trend of slowly decreasing first and then steadily increasing, and the growth rate gradually accelerates. During the pre-disaster warning stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess the characteristics of suddenness, exposure, and absorption. Organizational preparations, communication preparations, material preparations, and publicity preparations have the greatest room for optimization. During the disaster response stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess coupling and uncertainty, sensitivity, and adaptability characteristics. There is still room for improvement in the capacity to evacuate the masses, communication guarantee mechanisms, and the resilience of power facilities. During the post-disaster recovery stage, disaster-bearing bodies and emergency management plans respectively possess adaptability and adjustment characteristics. At this time, it is necessary to optimize the planting structure of crops and enhance the flood resistance capacity of roads. Emergency management plans always have the characteristic of learning throughout the entire cycle of disaster response.

Key words: rainstorm disaster, county disaster resilience, dynamic evolution, social network analysis, system dynamics

中图分类号:

X915.5

雷婷, 回晓靖, 刘杰. 面向暴雨灾害的县域适灾韧性演化模型构建及特征分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(11): 164-171.

LEI Ting, HUI Xiaojing, LIU Jie. Construction and characteristic analysis of county disaster resilience evolution model for rainstorm disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(11): 164-171.

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阶段	灾害事件或承灾体破坏现象	提升倍数最高的应急管理方案	提升倍数
灾前预警	强降雨	组织准备	10.6
		通信准备	10.6
		物料准备	10.6
		宣传准备	10.6
灾中应对	洪涝	停工避险	4.31
	人员安全威胁	救灾物资保障	4.06
	人员安全威胁	医疗卫生保障	4.06
	通信中断	通信设施抢修	1.14
	供电中断	电力设施抢修	1.13
灾后恢复	疫情传播	医疗卫生保障	1.51
	农田毁损	农田恢复	1.13
	交通中断	道路清淤	1.21

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