煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险耦合演化路径研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.04.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险在事故发展中的演化过程,首先,分析289起瓦斯爆炸事故调查报告,基于“5W”分析法提取风险因素,并结合解释结构模型,实现风险因素分类与分级;然后,引入Pearson算法,界定风险耦合强度概念,应用SPSS21.0分析风险耦合;最后,依据风险因素间的时序关系和逻辑顺序,构建风险演化路径。结果表明:在以往瓦斯爆炸事故案例中,产生火花与违规放炮耦合强度最大;瓦斯爆炸强耦合风险演化路径有9条,其中最短风险演化路径3条;管控瓦斯探头不足、瓦斯漏检、放炮火焰是预防事故的3个关键措施。

关键词: 瓦斯爆炸, 风险耦合强度, 风险传递, 演化路径, Pearson算法

Abstract:

In order to reveal evolution process of gas explosion risks in coal mines during accident development, firstly, risk factors were extracted through 5W analysis method by analyzing 289 gas explosion accident investigation reports, and then, they were classified based on interpretation structure model. Secondly, concept of risk coupling strength was defined by adopting Pearson algorithm, and risk coupling was analyzed by SPSS21.0. Finally, risk evolution paths were constructed according to temporal relationship and logical sequence among risk factors.The results show that the coupling intensity of spark generation and illegal firing is the largest for all the past gas explosion accidents. There are 9 strong coupling risk evolution paths, of which 3 are the shortest ones. The three key measures to prevent accidents are to control gas probe shortage, gas leakage detection and blasting flame.

Key words: gas explosion, risk coupling strength, risk transmission, evolution path, Pearson algorithm

成连华, 郭阿娟, 郭慧敏, 曹东强. 煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险耦合演化路径研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 59-64.

CHENG Lianhua, GUO A'juan, GUO Huimin, CAO Dongqiang. Research on coupling evolution path of gas explosion risks in coal mines[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(4): 59-64.

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变量	相关变量	耦合强度	变量	相关变量	耦合强度
违章指挥	电气火花	0.182	产生火源	违规放炮	-0.782^**
违章指挥	以包代管	-0.671^*		操作失误	0.278
违规作业	作业现场堆积物料	0.385		安全管理标识制度不健全	0.221
	安全培训不到位	0.560^*	安全检查制度不完善	隔爆设施使用不正确	-0.115
	安全意识淡薄	0.362		随意指挥强迫矿工执行	0.304
	作业现场照明不足	0.218		违法组织生产	0.231
	安全检查制度不完善	0.389^*		设备装置失爆	0.416^*
	无证上岗	0.421^*	设计生产不合理	风机故障	-0.113
通风不足	串联通风	0.131	设计生产不合理	采煤方法不正确	0.167
	作业空间狭小	0.128	未按图纸要求设计施工		0.336^*
	超能力生产	0.211	采空区空顶		0.271
	瓦斯含量超标	-0.332^*	静电火花		0.182
	风机未按规定检修和维护	0.113	文化建设不完善	未正确佩戴防护设备	-0.115
	地表塌陷区与井下连通	0.211		工作时间脱岗	-0.431^*
设备失爆	压力变化	0.098		误接放炮母线	0.261
	未制定设备维修制度	0.123	使用无资质人员		-0.386^*
	违规多布置采掘工作面	0.345^*	安全投入不足	安全管理人员配备不合理	0.213
瓦斯积聚	抽放管路未按规定设计、安装	0.331^*	安全投入不足	未佩戴安全防护用品	-0.552^**
	指挥者未持证上岗	-0.228	安全检查不到位	未对违规行为及时的制止	0.343^*
	事故隐患排查制度不完善	-0.116		放炮方式不合理	0.105
	安全教育不明显	0.225		放炮母线用其他线代替	0.116
	瓦斯漏检	0.303^*		风路堵塞	0.226
	煤层自身构造变化	0.152		随意开关风门	0.418^*
	瓦斯探头不足	0.441^*		防爆外壳有裂纹	-0.109
	违章爆破	0.104		煤炭自燃	-0.218
	风筒破损	-0.237		煤层掩埋深度发生改变	0.302^*