中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 77-84.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.12.1893

• 安全工程技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

冲偏出跑道事件演化网络构建与分析

程明(), 梅傲然   

  1. 中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-13 修回日期:2023-09-15 出版日期:2023-12-28
  • 作者简介:

    程明 (1979—),男,重庆人,硕士,副教授,主要从事民航安全与运行、突发事件应急等方面的研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    民航安全能力建设项目(ASSA2022/13); 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(3122018F003); 中国民航大学研究生科研创新项目(2021YJS013)

Construction and analysis of evolution network of runway excursion events

CHENG Ming(), MEI Aoran   

  1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
  • Received:2023-06-13 Revised:2023-09-15 Published:2023-12-28

摘要:

为探究冲偏出跑道事件形成机制,降低事件发生概率,基于情景推演和复杂网络理论,分析冲偏出跑道事件演化机制,构建冲偏出跑道事件演化网络模型;计算带权有向网络的节点度、介数中心性、聚类系数、网络密度等静态特征;并基于级联失效理论,分析冲偏出跑道事件演化网络的危险传播路径。结果表明:冲偏出跑道事件演化网络的网络密度为0.13,平均聚类系数为0.404,平均路径长度为1.549,表现出网络的小世界特性;关键节点接地速度大、油门杆、发动机损坏的综合值分别为0.508 3、0.491 2、0.487 1;在危险传播关键路径中接地速度大、油门杆(操作失误)、复飞在各传播链中出现的频率较高,是危险传播中的重要节点。

关键词: 冲偏出跑道事件, 复杂网络, 演化网络, 风险因素, 级联失效

Abstract:

In order to study the formation mechanism of runway excursion events and reduce the probability of events, this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of runway excursion events based on scenario deduction and complex network theory, and constructed the evolution network model of out-of-runway events. The static characteristics of the weighted directed network were calculated, including the node degree, betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient and network density. Based on the cascading failure theory, the dangerous propagation path of the evolution network of the runway event was analyzed. The results show that the network density of the evolutionary network is 0.13, the average clustering coefficient is 0.404, and the average path length is 1.549, which shows the small-world characteristics of the network. The comprehensive values of large grounding speed of key nodes, throttle rod and engine damage are 0.508 3, 0.491 2 and 0.487 1, respectively. In the critical path of dangerous propagation, the frequency of grounding speed, throttle rod (operation error) and re-flight in each propagation chain is high, which is an important node in dangerous propagation.

Key words: runway excursion, complex network, evolutionary network, risk factors, cascading failure