机动车驾驶人避险动作对骑行者损伤影响的因果推断

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0530

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为验证驾驶人避险动作对两轮车骑行者损伤的影响,识别出避险失效乃至加重损伤的条件。首先,在中国交通事故深度调查(CIDAS)数据的基础上,采用非支配排序遗传算法II(NSGA-II)仿真优化重建事故场景,提取碰撞时刻机动车速度、两轮车速度数据,构建由自变量、因变量和11项协变量构成的数据集,将仿真获取的字段与调查所得的数据字段融合作为建模的基础数据;其次,采用2种因果推断方法,即考虑正性假设与协变量调整的倾向性评分(PS)加权-回归分析结合方法(逆概率权重(IPW)和重叠概率权重(OW)),推断避险动作与损伤程度之间的因果性,并比较IPW、OW及无加权回归方法处理后的组间均衡性;最后,定量分析不同条件下驾驶人避险动作与两轮车骑行者损伤程度的因果效应。结果表明:总体上看,驾驶人目前采用的避险动作不能有效地减轻骑行者的损伤程度;当车辆类型为商用车、机动车并以中高速行驶时,采取避险驾驶动作会加剧骑行者损伤,其中,打方向盘更容易造成骑行者损伤加剧。

关键词: 避险动作, 两轮车, 骑行者, 损伤程度, 因果推断

Abstract:

To verify the impact of drivers' evasive actions on injuries of two-wheeler riders and to identify the conditions under which evasive maneuvers fail or even exacerbate the injuries, based on data from China In-Depth Accident Study (CIDAS), NSGA-II was first used to simulate and optimize the reconstruction of accident scenes. Vehicle speed and two-wheeler speed data at the moment of collision were extracted. A research dataset consisting of independent variables, dependent variables, and 11 covariates was constructed. Simulation-derived variables and investigation-based data fields were integrated to serve as the foundational data for modeling. Secondly, two causal inference methods were adopted, namely the propensity score (PS) weighting - regression analysis combination method considering positive hypotheses and covariate adjustment (inverse probability weighting (IPW) and overlap probability weighting (OW)), to infer the causality between evasive actions and injury severity, and to compare the inter-group balance after processing by IPW, OW and unweighted regression methods. Finally, the causal effect of drivers' evasive actions on the injury severity of two-wheeler riders under different conditions was quantitatively analyzed. The results show that, in general, the evasive actions currently adopted by drivers cannot effectively reduce the injury severity of riders. When the vehicle types are commercial vehicles and the motor vehicle traveling at medium to high speeds, taking evasive driving actions tends to aggravates the injuries of riders. Among these actions, steering maneuvers is more likely to increase the severity of rider injuries.

Key words: hedging action, two-wheeler, riders, injury degree, causal inference

中图分类号:

X910安全人体学

朱彤, 李微, 赵云飞, 李晓虎, 王鹏. 机动车驾驶人避险动作对骑行者损伤影响的因果推断[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(6): 27-36.

ZHU Tong, LI Wei, ZHAO Yunfei, LI Xiaohu, WANG Peng. Causal inference of effect of motor-vehicle driver's avoidance action on cyclists' injury[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 27-36.

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变量		占比/%
因变量	损伤严重程度:无伤或者轻伤、重伤或致命伤	72.5、27.5
自变量	避险驾驶动作:无避险动作、刹车和转向、仅刹车、仅转向	64.3、16.22、16.29、3.19
协变量	机动车驾驶人性别:男、女	86.8、13.2
	骑行者性别:男、女	72.1、27.8
	机动车驾驶人年龄:≤30岁、31~40岁、41~50岁、51~60岁、>60岁	33.7、33.5、23.0、8.1、1.6
	骑行者年龄:≤30岁、31~40岁、41~50岁、51~60岁、>60岁	20.2、15.5、27.6、21.6、15.1
	机动车驾驶人驾龄:0~1年、2~5年、6~10年、>10年	7.9、28.5、26.2、37.3
	骑行者佩戴头盔:是、否	18.9、81.1
	机动车车辆类型:商用车、乘用车	83.0、17.0
	两轮车车辆类型:电动自行车、自行车、摩托车	48.6、8.3、43.1
	机动车车速:≤10、11~20、21~30、31~40、41~50、51~60、>60 km/h	10.5、20.7、23.3、17.2、11.8、7.8、8.6
	两轮车车速:≤10、11~20、21~30、31~40、>40 km/h	10.8、25.9、35.3、17.1、10.9
	事故发生地点:市区、非市区	51.1、48.9
	路面干燥程度:干燥、潮湿	88.0、12.0
	道路类型:平直路段、弯曲路段、交叉口、其他(停车场等)	23.1、4.7、68.9、3.3
	天气条件:晴天、阴天、雨雪大雾天气	75.1、21.7、3.2
	路面材料:沥青、水泥、砂石	68.5、30.5、1.0
	交通密度:自由流、稳定流、不稳定流	73.6、24.3、2.1

分组	加权方法	避险动作	OR	差异占比/%	P值	ASMD 平均值	ASMD 最大值
总体	未加权	刹车和转向^*	2.355	—	< 0.01^*	0.11	0.46
		仅刹车	0.979	—	0.862
		仅转向^*	1.999	—	<0.01^*
总体	IPW	刹车和转向	1.053	-55.29	0.070	0.01	0.03
		仅刹车	0.993	1.43	0.758
		仅转向^*	1.134	-43.27	0.027^*
总体	OW	刹车和转向	1.046	-55.58	0.150	0	0
		仅刹车	0.998	1.94	0.940
		仅转向^*	1.128	-43.57	0.020^*

分组		避险动作	OR	差异占比/%	P值
机动车车辆类型	乘用车	刹车和转向	1.026	-55.795	0.479
		仅刹车	0.980	-1.110	0.586
		仅转向	1.061	-43.892	0.350
	商用车	刹车和转向^*	2.124	-9.809	< 0.01^*
		仅刹车	1.341	44.504	0.077
		仅转向^*	2.054	-79.166	<0.01^*
道路类型	交叉口	刹车和转向	1.135	-54.709	0.070
		仅刹车	1.118	-22.199	0.124
		仅转向	1.177	-27.301	0.068
	非交叉口	刹车和转向	1.019	-55.463	0.625
		仅刹车	0.948	18.057	0.171
		仅转向^*	1.140	-48.323	0.028^*
机动车车速/ (km·h^-1)	0~30	刹车和转向	1.028	-18.927	0.626
		仅刹车	0.975	24.046	0.581
		仅转向	1.100	-34.988	0.250
	31~60	刹车和转向^*	1.220	-38.693	< 0.01^*
		仅刹车	1.090	34.071	0.110
		仅转向^*	1.206	-28.129	< 0.01^*
	>60	刹车和转向	1.054	4.460	0.661
		仅刹车	1.247	2.381	0.095
		仅转向	1.123	11.741	0.448