考虑降雨强度异质性的合流区可变限速动态控制

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.1016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为缓解不同降雨强度诱发的高速公路合流区交通拥堵问题,提出一种考虑降雨强度异质性的合流区可变限速动态控制(RVSL)方法。综合考虑通行能力下降及车辆换道概率对合流区交通流状态的影响,并探究降雨强度异质性与车辆自由流速度的动态关系;在此基础上,基于元胞传输模型(CTM)构建合流区交通流预测模型,兼顾总行程时间和总周转量,构建可变限速优化模型;考虑降雨强度异质性对可变限速值求解的影响,利用粒子群算法求解得到最优RVSL方法,仿真分析降雨强度异质性影响下实施不同限速控制方法时高速公路交通流的演化过程。结果表明:实施考虑降雨强度异质性影响下的RVSL,当降雨强度为小雨、中雨和大雨时,对比可变限速控制(VSL),其目标函数分别减少8.41%、40.57%和32.91%;对比固定限速控制(FSL),其目标函数分别减少17.48%、55.14%和44.69%,RVSL能够有效缓解拥堵并提高高速公路的通行效率。

关键词: 降雨强度异质性, 高速公路合流区, 可变限速动态控制(RVSL), 元胞传输模型(CTM), 模型预测控制(MPC)

Abstract:

In order to alleviate the traffic congestion induced by different rainfall intensities, a dynamic control method of variable speed limit in merging zones considering rainfall intensity heterogeneity was proposed. The impacts of capacity reduction and vehicle lane-changing probability on the traffic flow state were comprehensively considered, and the dynamic relationship between rainfall intensity heterogeneity and vehicle free-flow speed was explored. Then, a traffic flow prediction model was constructed based on the cell transmission model. Taking into account the total travel time and total turnover, the variable speed limit optimization model was constructed, considering the influence of rainfall intensity heterogeneity on the variable speed limit value solution, and the optimal variable speed limit dynamic control method was obtained by using the particle swarm algorithm. Simulation and analysis of the evolution of traffic flow under different speed limit control methods were conducted. The results show that when implementing the RVSL under light, moderate, and heavy rainfall, the objective function is reduced by 8.41%, 40.57%, and 32.91% compared with variable speed limit (VSL), and by 17.48%, 55.14% and 44.69% compared with fixed speed limit (FSL). The method can effectively reduce congestion and improve the efficiency of the highway.

Key words: rainfall intensity heterogeneity, freeway merging zone, variable speed limit considering effect of rain (RVSL), cell transmission model (CTM), model predictive control (MPC)

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

马飞, 郭雅茹, 杨治杰, 张玉洁, 马壮林, 徐玉凤. 考虑降雨强度异质性的合流区可变限速动态控制[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(7): 57-66.

MA Fei, GUO Yaru, YANG Zhijie, ZHANG Yujie, MA Zhuanglin, XU Yufeng. Dynamic control for variable speed limit in merging zones considering rainfall intensity heterogeneity[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(7): 57-66.

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拟合类型	拟合公式	拟合指数
线性	p=-0.003 7v+1.071 0	0.988 7
指数	p=1.089 5exp(-0.005v)	0.997 3
对数	p=-0.167ln(v)+1.471 5	0.940 0
多项式	p=10^-5v²-0.005 0v+1.090 7	0.997 2

降雨类型	R/(mm·min^-1)	q/m	v/(km^.h^-1)
小雨	0.59	399.62	96.07
中雨	0.87	284.69	79.45
大雨	1.57	170.03	59.03
暴雨	5.72	54.99	27.65

元胞	真实流量/ (pcu·h^-1)	仿真流量/ (pcu·h^-1)	真实速度/ (km·h^-1)	仿真速度/ (km·h^-1)
1	2 628	2 640	90.0	91.1
2	2 716	2 609	90.4	90.7
3	2 706	2 592	90.8	90.3
4	2 637	2 569	91.1	90.1
5	2 608	2 536	92.1	90.2
6	2 567	2 508	92.8	90.2
7	2 568	2 463	93.8	90.1
8	2 495	2 455	94.7	90.1
9	2 517	2 427	95.2	89.9
10	2 511	2 399	95.5	89.9

降雨强度	RVSL	VSL	FSL
小雨	53.48	58.39	64.81
中雨	141.65	238.36	315.75
大雨	193.99	289.14	350.72