基于改进灰色群决策的城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1608

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 220-227.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1608

基于改进灰色群决策的城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价

孙慧芳¹(), 陈杨², 毛文鑫³^,^**()

¹ 河南大学建筑工程学院,河南开封 475004
² 中国中元国际工程有限公司,北京 100089
³ 河南大学商学院,河南开封 475004

收稿日期:2025-03-19 修回日期:2025-06-11 出版日期:2025-09-28
通信作者:
**毛文鑫(1991—),男,河南许昌人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市韧性方面的研究。E-mail: maowenxin@henu.edu.cn。
作者简介:
孙慧芳 (1990—),女,河南叶县人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市韧性、灾害应急管理方面的研究。E-mail: sunhuifang@henu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(72304087); 国家社会科学基金资助(25CJY009); 教育部人文社科青年项目(24YJC630184); 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023CSH028)

Evaluation of emergency management efficiency for urban flood disaster based on improved grey group decision making

SUN Huifang¹(), CHEN Yang², MAO Wenxin³^,^**()

¹ School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Henan University, Kaifeng Henan 475004, China
² China IPPR International Engineering CO., Ltd., Beijing 100089, China
³ Business School, Henan University, Kaifeng Henan 475004, China

Received:2025-03-19 Revised:2025-06-11 Published:2025-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价中决策者在风险条件下的偏好依赖与损失规避问题,构建融合决策者风险偏好的改进灰色群决策模型,首先,提出一种基于群体意见一致性和差异性的决策者权重确定方法,弥补传统方法在集成个体信息时忽略决策者专业背景、经验和个人偏好的差异问题;然后,提出改进的交互式多准则决策(TODIM)方法,降低在计算优势度时决策者面对风险的损失夸大问题;最后,将模型应用于城市洪涝灾害应急管理方案效能评价,验证所提方法的有效性。结果表明:在综合考虑应急救援效率、防灾减灾效果、资源利用效率和应急管理成本的情况下,应急响应和救援体系完善方案优于早期预警与监测系统建设方案和信息化技术支持方案,且这一最优应急方案在81.82%的情景中维持稳健。

关键词: 城市洪涝灾害, 应急管理效能, 灰色群决策, 风险偏好, 交互式多准则决策(TODIM)

Abstract:

To address the issues of preference dependence and loss aversion of decision makers under risk conditions in the evaluation of urban flood disaster emergency management efficiency, an improved grey group decision-making model integrating the risk preference of decision-makers was constructed. Firstly, a decision-maker weight determination method based on group consensus and difference was proposed, which overcame the limitation of traditional method that ignored differences of decision-maker's professional background, experience and personal preference when integrating individual information. Then, the TODIM method was proposed to reduce the problem of loss overestimation faced by decision makers under risk when calculating dominance. Finally, the model was applied to the efficiency evaluation of urban flood disaster emergency management schemes, which verified its effectiveness. The results show that the scheme of improving the emergency response and rescue system is superior to both the early warning and monitoring system construction scheme and information technology support scheme, when comprehensively considering emergency rescue efficiency, disaster prevention and mitigation effect, resource utilization efficiency and emergency management cost. Moreover, this optimal emergency scheme remains robust in 81.82% of the scenarios.

Key words: urban flood disaster, emergency management efficiency, grey group decision-making, risk preference, improved interactive multi-criteria decision-making (TODIM)

中图分类号:

X915.5

孙慧芳, 陈杨, 毛文鑫. 基于改进灰色群决策的城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(9): 220-227.

SUN Huifang, CHEN Yang, MAO Wenxin. Evaluation of emergency management efficiency for urban flood disaster based on improved grey group decision making[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 220-227.

图/表 6

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

表4

对比分析结果

决策方法	决策结果
文中所提方法	$A 2 A 3 A 1$
经典TODIM	$A 2 A 1 A 3$
文献[17]灰关联决策方法	$A 2 A 3 A 1$
文献[12]群体信息集结方法	$A 2 A 1 A 3$

表4

参考文献 19

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备选方案	方案描述
A₁:早期预警和监测系统建设方案	侧重于建设城市F洪涝灾害早期预警和监测系统,提高对洪涝灾害的感知和应对能力,包括洪水监测设备、气象预警系统、水位水质监测设施等
A₂:应急响应和救援体系完善方案	着重于加强城市F应急响应和救援体系的建设,包括完善灾害应急预案、提升救援队伍能力、强化应急物资储备等
A₃:信息化技术支持方案	采用信息技术支持城市F洪涝灾害的应急管理,包括建设应急管理信息系统、利用大数据和人工智能技术进行灾害预测和应急指挥,提升灾害应对智能化水平

评价指标	对应指标的含义解释
C₁:应急救援效率	指救援行动的速度、有效性和覆盖范围,反映救援队伍和物资的调动和应用效果。主要包括救援队伍到达灾区的时间、救援执行效果、救援物资供应的及时性等
C₂:防灾减灾效果	指应急管理措施对灾害发生和发展的抑制和减轻程度。主要包括防洪设施的稳定性和效果、排水系统的通畅性、应急预案的实施效果等
C₃:资源利用效率	指应急管理中各类资源(人力、物资、设备等)的调配和利用效果,以及衡量资源调配的合理性和利用效果,包括物资储备和调配的时效性、人力资源的优化配置等
C₄:应急管理成本	指实施应急管理方案所需的经济投入和资源消耗。主要包括方案的实施成本、维护成本以及灾后恢复和修复的经济投入等

专家		C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄
e₁	A₁	[82, 85, 88]	[84, 86, 90]	[87, 89, 94]	[390, 420, 460]
	A₂	[86, 89, 94]	[81, 85, 89]	[88, 90, 93]	[320, 360, 410]
	A₃	[84, 87, 91]	[85, 88, 92]	[82, 85, 89]	[370, 410, 470]
e₂	A₁	[85, 88, 90]	[81, 85, 89]	[84, 87, 90]	[350, 370, 420]
	A₂	[84, 86, 91]	[83, 89, 94]	[86, 91, 95]	[280, 330, 380]
	A₃	[86, 89, 93]	[80, 82, 86]	[83, 87, 91]	[260, 300, 350]
e₃	A₁	[80, 83, 87]	[82, 87, 93]	[79, 84, 87]	[360, 400, 470]
	A₂	[87, 90, 94]	[81, 85, 88]	[82, 86, 89]	[300, 340, 370]
	A₃	[82, 86, 89]	[78, 83, 86]	[85, 88, 93]	[330, 380, 440]

基于改进灰色群决策的城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价

Evaluation of emergency management efficiency for urban flood disaster based on improved grey group decision making

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