洪灾下城市居民应急避险能力影响因素分析:以焦作市为例

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0771

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究居民洪灾应急避险能力现状,并识别其影响因素,提高居民应急避险能力,以河南焦作市为例,首先,采用综合指数法从应急避险知识、技能、意愿和行为4个维度构建居民洪灾应急避险能力指数;然后,基于文献分析与专家咨询识别并分析影响居民洪灾应急避险能力的10个关键因素;最后,根据结论提出居民洪灾应急避险能力提升的对策与建议。结果表明:焦作市城市居民洪灾应急避险能力整体处于中等偏下水平,其中应急避险意愿得分最高,避险技能得分最低,避险知识和行为居中;从影响因素看,男性、年轻人群、高学历、高收入、洪灾经历多、家庭规模大、家中有行动不便人员、12岁以下儿童数量多、住宅楼层为平房和居住在洪水易发区的居民应急避险能力更高。

关键词: 洪灾, 城市居民, 应急避险能力(EEC), 影响因素, 指标权重, 避险意愿

Abstract:

This paper aims to understand the current situation of residents' flood EEC in Jiaozuo city, identify its influencing factors, and to improve their flood EEC. Firstly, a comprehensive index method was adopted to construct an index of residents' flood EEC from four dimensions: knowledge, skills, willingness and behavior. Then, based on literature analysis, ten key factors influencing residents' flood EEC were identified and analyzed. Finally, according to the conclusion, countermeasures and suggestions for improving residents' flood EEC were proposed. The results show that the flood EEC of urban residents in Jiaozuo city is at a medium to low level. The evacuation willingness score is the highest, the evacuation skills score is the lowest, and the evacuation knowledge and behavior scores are in the middle. From the perspective of influencing factors, male respondents, young people, those with higher education, higher income, more flood experience, large family members, more mobility-impaired family members, more children under 12 years old, those living in bungalows, and those living in flood-prone areas have higher flood EEC.

Key words: flood disasters, urban residents, emergency evacuation capacity(EEC), influence factors, index weight, evacuation intention

中图分类号:

X915.5

刘德林, 常晓乐. 洪灾下城市居民应急避险能力影响因素分析:以焦作市为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(9): 212-219.

LIU Delin, CHANG Xiaole. Analysis of influencing factors on urban residents' emergency evacuation capacity during flood disasters: an example from Jiaozuo city[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 212-219.

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变量	问题设计	赋值	权重
避险知识	您对暴雨预警等级信息的了解程度	非常不了解→ 非常了解 1~5	0.061
	您对暴雨预警后采取的行动的了解程度		0.056
	您对离家最近的应急避难场所的了解程度		0.070
	您对救生衣/圈等救生设备如何使用的了解程度		0.049
避险技能	您能制定一个有效的洪灾家庭转移避险计划	非常不符合→ 非常符合 1~5	0.120
	您会心肺复苏术、止血包扎等急救技能		0.079
	您会使用救生衣/圈等救生设备		0.131
避险意愿	您愿意参加相关培训	非常不符合→ 非常符合 1~5	0.063
	您愿意参加防汛应急演练		0.054
	您会和亲人、朋友、邻居在汛期达成互助承诺		0.074
避险行为	您会准备相关应急物资	非常不符合→ 非常符合 1~5	0.083
	您会购买洪水灾害保险		0.074
	接到政府指令时,您会立即转移至安全区域		0.086

类别	因素	选项
个体特征	性别	男性;女性
	年龄/岁	<18;18~25;26~50;51~70;>70
	受教育程度	初中及以下;高中或中专;本科或大专;硕士及以上
	洪灾经历	0次;1次;2次;3次及以上
家庭特征	家庭人均年收入/万元	<1;1~3;3~8;>8
	家庭规模/人	≤3;4;5;>5
	行动不便人数	0;1;2;≥3
	≤12岁儿童人数	0;1;2;≥3
居住特征	住宅楼层	平房;1楼;2楼;3楼及以上
居住特征	是否居住在洪水易发区	是;否

指标			分类样本数	避险知识	避险技能	避险意愿	避险行为	避险能力
个体特征	性别	男	100	0.92	1.17	0.75	0.90	3.74
	性别	女	95	0.90	1.10	0.74	0.87	3.61
	年龄/岁	<18	23	0.93	1.15	0.78	0.91	3.77
		18~25	41	0.92	1.13	0.71	0.85	3.61
		26~50	67	0.92	1.19	0.78	0.91	3.80
		51~70	42	0.91	1.04	0.72	0.89	3.56
		>70	22	0.86	1.11	0.71	0.84	3.52
	教育程度	初中及以下	26	0.86	1.05	0.75	0.85	3.51
		高中或中专	88	0.91	1.13	0.74	0.88	3.66
		本科或大专	71	0.93	1.14	0.76	0.90	3.73
		硕士及以上	10	0.90	1.27	0.69	0.92	3.78
	洪灾经历/次	0	61	0.87	1.15	0.73	0.91	3.66
		1	95	0.94	1.08	0.74	0.84	3.60
		2	28	0.93	1.19	0.77	0.94	3.83
		3	7	0.87	1.25	0.79	0.94	3.85
		≥4	4	0.95	1.49	0.89	1.11	4.44

指标			分类样本数	避险知识	避险技能	避险意愿	避险行为	避险能力
家庭特征	家庭规模/人	≤3	48	0.93	1.15	0.74	0.93	3.75
		4	68	0.91	1.06	0.69	0.83	3.49
		5	54	0.89	1.12	0.79	0.86	3.66
		>5	25	0.91	1.32	0.79	1.01	4.03
	家庭人均年收入/ 万元	<1	48	0.91	1.15	0.74	0.93	3.73
		1~3	96	0.92	1.09	0.73	0.83	3.57
		3~8	44	0.90	1.16	0.78	0.92	3.76
		>8	7	0.78	1.46	0.83	1.07	4.14
	行动不便人数	0	153	0.93	1.11	0.73	0.87	3.64
		1	35	0.85	1.17	0.78	0.93	3.73
		2	5	0.93	1.44	0.79	1.10	4.26
		3及以上	2	0.85	1.49	0.93	1.01	4.28
	≤12岁儿童人数	0	111	0.92	1.10	0.71	0.87	3.60
		1	69	0.88	1.15	0.78	0.89	3.70
		2	15	1.02	1.30	0.83	1.01	4.16

指标			分类样本数	避险知识	避险技能	避险意愿	避险行为	避险能力
居住特征	住宅楼层	平房	32	0.95	1.15	0.77	0.94	3.81
		1楼	29	0.84	1.16	0.68	0.89	3.57
		2楼	26	0.86	0.96	0.69	0.76	3.27
		3楼及以上	108	0.93	1.16	0.77	0.90	3.76
	是否居住在洪水易发区	是	43	0.93	1.13	0.74	0.93	3.73
	是否居住在洪水易发区	否	152	0.90	1.13	0.75	0.87	3.65