Research on evolution of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.022

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve the navigation safety level in Three Gorges dam area, the evolution process of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area were studied by means of field investigation and the structural equation model (SEM)among others. Factors influencing navigation safety risk were analyzed and classified. A measuring scale was compiled. The indicators were screened and an index system of navigation safety risk evolution was established. A theoretical relationship model of risk evolution was built. The paths were analyzed by statistics software AMOS based on SEM.The results show that the navigation safety risk in the Three Gorges dam area is formed by the evolution of five major risks, such as natural environment risk, risk of channel state, risk of management behavior, ship risk and crew risk, and that the evolution process of risk is divided into three stages of inducing, spreading and upgrading.

Key words: Three Gorges dam area, navigation safety risk, evolution model, path coefficient, risk evolution

CLC Number:

X951

QIN Pan, FENG Zhitao, ZHANG Jie, DU Chao. Research on evolution of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(12): 136-143.

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