Cause analysis of chemical accidents based on improved cusp catastrophe model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.07.004

China Safety Science Journal ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 20-25.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.07.004

• Safety Systematology • Previous Articles Next Articles

Cause analysis of chemical accidents based on improved cusp catastrophe model

PEI Jiakun^1,2, WANG Feiyue¹, GUO Huanhuan¹, YANG Chenyu¹, PEI Chongwei¹

1 Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology, Central South University, Changsha Hunan 410075, China;
2 Jining Work Safety Technology Service Center, Jining Shandong 272000, China

Received:2019-03-24 Revised:2019-05-26 Online:2019-07-28 Published:2020-10-21

Abstract

Abstract: In order to better reflect the sudden change of system safety state caused by the continuous changes of accident-causing factors in the process of chemical accidents, analysis was made on the cause mechanism of chemical accidents with inherent hazards of the production system and the unsafe factors in the production process being taken as internal and external causes; then the traditional accident-causing cusp catastrophe model was improved with system safety being the state variable and inherent hazards and unsafe factors as the control variable to evaluate the influence of people-machine-administration-environment-material-energy on the system safety comprehensively; finally, the process and conditions of chemical accident causes were studied based on the improved model and its feasibility was verified through relevant accident cases. The results show that chemical accidents were caused by a combination of inherent hazards and unsafe factors and the system state would change from safe to accident when the risks of these two factors reach a certain level.

Key words: chemical accidents, inherent hazards, unsafe factors, accident-cause mechanism, cusp catastrophe theory

CLC Number:

X928.5

PEI Jiakun, WANG Feiyue, GUO Huanhuan, YANG Chenyu, PEI Chongwei. Cause analysis of chemical accidents based on improved cusp catastrophe model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(7): 20-25.

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Cause analysis of chemical accidents based on improved cusp catastrophe model

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