Timing decision of highway reconstruction and expansion in coordination of safety and efficiency

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.01.0388

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to overcome the limitation that the timing of reconstruction and expansion cannot fully reflect the operation status of highway by saturation degree, a reconstruction and expansion timing decision method based on traffic safety and efficiency state change points was proposed. The safety indicator was the serious traffic conflict rate, and the efficiency indicator was the speed loss rate and relative traffic efficiency, so as to build an evaluation index system for the timing of expansion. Simulation and example analysis were conducted with the Nantou-Nanping section of Guangshen expressway, and the results showed that: using saturation as the comparison index for trend analysis, the selected indexes in this paper change by more than 300% before and after the change point, while the saturation change by only 18% before and after the change point. By comparing the best re-expansion timing of 2020 determined by the method in this paper and 2025 determined by the service level method, the serious traffic conflict rates of the two halves are reduced by 41.11% and 43.52%, the speed loss rates are reduced by 33.95% and 29.26%, the relative traffic efficiency of the Nantou to Nantou section is increased by 9.46%, and the reduction of relative traffic efficiency in the Nantou to Nantou section is avoided.

Key words: highways, timing of renovation and expansion, safety and efficiency, threshold determination, variable point theory

WANG Fupeng, WANG Hong, WU Jing'an, ZHU Shunying, JIANG Ruoxi, ZHAO Long. Timing decision of highway reconstruction and expansion in coordination of safety and efficiency[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(1): 152-160.

Figures/Tables 13

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Tab.3

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Fig.5

Tab.4

Tab.5

Calculation results of renovation time for Nantou-Nanping section of Guangshen Expressway

年份	南头-南坪方向				南坪-南头方向
年份	$R' S$	$R' V$	$E'$	Z	$R' S$	$R' V$	$E'$	Z
理想时机	0.162 2	0.330 5	1.000 0	—	0.194 9	0.234 6	1.000 0	—
2016	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.506 3	0.615 9	0.000 0	0.009 9	0.000 0	1.043 3
2017	0.082 9	0.077 8	0.717 1	0.387 5	0.062 0	0.000 0	0.327 3	0.724 7
2018	0.144 1	0.110 0	0.815 1	0.288 3	0.093 2	0.076 2	0.477 9	0.555 0
2019	0.095 0	0.095 6	0.851 4	0.286 0	0.084 1	0.092 0	0.578 9	0.458 2
2020	0.141 2	0.161 1	0.877 3	0.210 2	0.136 5	0.096 8	0.639 8	0.390 1
2021	0.295 5	0.254 8	0.837 6	0.223 3	0.204 4	0.276 5	0.741 0	0.262 5
2022	0.447 1	0.347 9	0.814 1	0.340 6	0.338 7	0.371 2	0.737 7	0.328 8
2023	0.527 3	0.471 6	0.657 0	0.520 4	0.581 4	0.506 6	0.935 1	0.477 1
2024	0.758 4	0.711 8	0.432 1	0.907 4	0.723 1	0.613 7	0.875 5	0.662 0
2025	1.000 0	1.000 0	0.000 0	1.466 3	1.000 0	1.000 0	0.647 5	1.165 5

Tab.5

Fig.6

Tab.6

Tab.7

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检验数据	交通量/(pcu·h^-1)						车速/(km·h^-1)
检验数据	主线 (南头-南坪)	南头南 (入)	南坪南 (入)	主线 (南头-南坪)	南坪北 (出)	南头北 (出)	南头-南坪	南坪-南头
真实值	2 028	1 433	976	4 438	897	1 288	92.47	96.50
仿真值	2 028	1 401	1 010	4 354	892	1 247	94.71	96.87
相对误差/%	0.0	2.2	3.5	1.9	0.6	3.2	2.4	0.4
均值误差/%	1.9						1.4

年份	AADT/ (pcu·d^-1)	PHF	D	PHV₁/ (pcu·h^-1)	小客车占比/%	中型车占比/%	大型车占比/%	汽车列车占比/%
2016	96 219	0.071 5	0.5	3 440	78.29	12.15	6.00	3.56
2017	101 011	0.071 5	0.5	3 611	78.91	11.74	5.96	3.40
2018	103 261	0.071 5	0.5	3 692	79.85	11.46	5.64	3.06
2019	103 001	0.071 5	0.5	3 682	80.23	10.98	5.70	3.09
2020	103 922	0.071 5	0.5	3 715	80.70	10.69	5.58	3.03
2021	106 900	0.071 5	0.5	3 822	81.02	10.38	5.53	3.06
2022	108 481	0.071 5	0.5	3 878	81.26	10.10	5.50	3.14
2023	110 690	0.071 5	0.5	3 957	81.44	9.84	5.48	3.24
2024	113 688	0.071 5	0.5	4 064	81.58	9.61	5.45	3.36
2025	116 499	0.071 5	0.5	4 165	81.69	9.41	5.43	3.48

年份	南头-南坪方向			南坪-南头方向
年份	R_S/ (次·pcu^-1·km^-1)	R_V/%	E	R_S/ (次·pcu^-1·km^-1)	R_V/%	E
2016	0.021 7	19.79	0.571 0	0.017 2	18.55	0.587 3
2017	0.023 4	20.84	0.583 3	0.018 3	18.46	0.598 3
2018	0.024 5	21.27	0.589 0	0.018 8	19.14	0.603 4
2019	0.023 6	21.08	0.591 1	0.018 7	19.28	0.606 8
2020	0.024 5	21.96	0.592 6	0.019 6	19.32	0.608 9
2021	0.027 5	23.22	0.590 3	0.020 8	20.91	0.612 3
2022	0.030 5	24.47	0.588 9	0.023 1	21.75	0.612 2
2023	0.032 0	26.14	0.579 8	0.027 4	22.95	0.618 8
2024	0.036 6	29.37	0.566 6	0.029 8	23.89	0.616 8
2025	0.041 6	33.25	0.541 4	0.034 7	27.31	0.609 1

路幅	回归系数β	变点前后各指标回归系数
路幅	回归系数β	R_S	R_V	E	V/C
南头 - 南坪	β'₁	0.000 5	0.696 1	0.005 1	0.011 0
	β'₂	0.003 4	3.554 7	-0.012 0	0.013 0
	R_C/%	580	411	335	18
南坪 - 南头	β'₁	0.000 6	0.414 6	0.003 8	0.011 0
	β'₂	0.003 7	1.763 9	-0.007 7	0.013 0
	R_C/%	517	325	303	18

方法	南头-南坪			南坪-南头
方法	R_S/(次·pcu^-1·km^-1)	R_V/%	E/%	R_S/(次·pcu^-1·km^-1)	R_V/%	E/%
本文方法	0.024 5	21.96	0.592 6	0.019 6	19.32	0.608 9
服务水平法	0.041 6	33.25	0.541 4	0.034 7	27.31	0.609 1
减幅/%	41.11	33.95	-9.46	43.52	29.26	0.03