DBN model of external corrosion accident in gas network system

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.2314

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to understand the occurrence regularity and characteristics of external corrosion accidents in the middle and later period of pipeline operation and prevent external corrosion leakage accidents of gas pipeline network, an aggregation network of external corrosion accidents was organized and constructed by combining CN and DBN. The key factors of the accident were screened by degree analysis. On this basis, the parameter learning and Leaky Noisy-or gate correction model were combined to construct the DBN of external corrosion accidents of gas pipeline network. Finally, according to different failure scenarios, the influence characteristics of different dynamic elements on external corrosion accidents and the influence of maintenance measures on pipeline failure probability were obtained. The results show that the impacts of different disaster-causing elements on pipeline network failure are different and staged. Among them, aging, accident accumulation and chemical corrosion have significant impacts on the corrosion perforation and pipeline rupture in the middle and late service stages, while the pressure cycling dominates the pipeline rupture accident in the middle service stage. Through CN topology analysis, the importance of accident elements can be identified from the overall point of view. Through the construction analysis of DBN, the dynamic influence of accident factors on accident consequences can be obtained.

Key words: gas pipeline network, external corrosion accident, dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), complex networks (CN), pipe rupture, corrosion perforation

LI Cong, XU Zixuan, ZHUANG Yufeng, YANG Rui, XU Yabo, CHEN Chen. DBN model of external corrosion accident in gas network system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(9): 227-236.

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要素类型	要素名称及编号
基本要素	违章建设(1);老化(2);事故积累(3);临近排污管线(4);土壤湿度(5);不明明火(6);箱变压迫(7);不明应力(8);箱变元件放电(9);火花(10);排水暗渠交叉(11);土壤盐碱(12);化学腐蚀(13);海水倒灌(14);干湿循环(15);道路(16);震动(17);液压破碎锤修理(18);盖板暗渠(19);制造缺陷(20);临近饭店(21);临近排烟管(22);河道(23);接触铜水管(24);传感器失灵(25);周期性疲劳(26);压力监测异常(27);压力循环(28);延迟关闭(29);防腐层材料含水(30);纵向闪电焊(31);拉伸过载(32);操作压力过大(32);极化电位过低(33);细菌培养环境(34);临近集油管(35)
中间要素	相对密闭环境(36);燃气聚集(37);持续泄漏(38);应力集中(39);防腐层失效(40);阴极保护失效(41);腐蚀扩大(42);纵向焊缝失效(43);细菌腐蚀(44);冲蚀现象(45);电化学腐蚀(46);凹痕(47)
结果要素	管道腐蚀(48);腐蚀穿孔(49);爆炸(50);破坏附近店铺(51);管道点蚀(52);爆燃(53);管道破裂(54);二次燃烧(55);道路炸开(56);破坏厂区(57);破坏临时工棚(58);伤害行人(59);破坏居民楼(60);焊缝腐蚀(61);管道减薄(62)

编号	基本节点	节点状态	先验概率/%
X₁	极化电位过低	T	7.05
X₂	电磁干扰	T	11.60
X₃	老化	T	4.35
X₄	化学腐蚀	T	8.60
X₅	事故积累	T	4.23
X₆	土壤盐碱	T	7.05
X₇	土壤湿度	H	14.40
		M	53.94
		L	31.66
X₈	细菌培养环境	T	11.60
X₉	拉伸过载	T	7.05
X₁₀	压力循环	T	20.57
X₁₁	不明应力	T	0.68

土壤湿度	X₇=H		X₇=M		X₇=L
土壤盐碱	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P
P(Y₃=T)/%	81	32	79	21	73	5

土壤湿度	X₇=H		X₇=M		X₇=L
土壤盐碱	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P	X₆=T	X₆=P
P(Y₃=T)/%	82	35	79	25	73	5
P(Y₃=P)/%	18	65	21	75	27	95

序号	基本节点	节点状态	后验概率/%
1	土壤湿度X₇	H	28
2	事故积累X₅	T	20
3	化学腐蚀X₄	T	14
5	电磁干扰X₂	T	13