Research on'status and trends' scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0575

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to address the challenges associated with characterizing the scenarios of stampede accidents and facilitating comprehension of these scenarios among decision-makers, a method for constructing and combining scenarios of large-scale event stampede accidents was proposed. Firstly, the scene elements of stampede accidents were extracted in large-scale events from the four factors that affect the formation of large-scale activities: people, venue, management, and environment, and a formal expression method for "state" and "trends" of large-scale activities research was established. Secondly, based on Markov model, a deduction description and calculation method for the transformation of situational "state-trends" was provided. Finally, an example analysis was conducted using Shanghai Bund accident. The findings of empirical analyses indicate that deductive results are largely aligned with the actual development process of the 2014 Shanghai stampede. This evidence substantiates the scientific rigour and efficacy of methodology proposed in the paper.

Key words: large-scale activities, stampede accident, 'status and trends', scenario construction, combination deduction

CLC Number:

X928.03事故预防与预测

LIU Yi, LI Maoyuan, WANG Xinzhi, ZHANG Hui. Research on'status and trends' scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(9): 183-190.

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序号	ρ	B	M	E	有无风险
1	略拥挤	推搡	结构损坏	无警示	有
2	拥挤	推搡	出口狭窄	无引导	有
3	拥挤	人流对冲	空间堵塞	无引导	有
4	负载	人流对冲	空间堵塞	无引导	有
5	负载	哄抢	空间堵塞	分流引导	有
6	略拥挤	哄抢	结构损坏	无引导	有
7	略拥挤	哄抢	出口狭窄	无引导	有
8	拥挤	人流对冲	空间堵塞	无引导	有
9	拥挤	推搡	空间堵塞	无引导	有
10	拥挤	推搡	障碍物阻挡	无引导	有
11	略拥挤	推搡	结构损坏	警示牌	无
12	拥挤	推搡	出口狭窄	及时引导	无
13	拥挤	推搡	空间堵塞	分流引导	无
14	负载	推搡	空间堵塞	分流引导	无
15	略拥挤	哄抢	出口狭窄	及时引导	无
16	略拥挤	推搡	出口狭窄	无引导	无
17	略拥挤	人流对冲	出口狭窄	无引导	无
18	拥挤	有序排队	障碍物阻挡	及时引导	无
19	拥挤	有序排队	障碍物阻挡	警示牌	无

观测参数	中风险概率	高风险概率
V₁	0.14	0.36
V₂	0.14	0.09
V₃	0.14	0.09
V₄	0	0.46

隐含状态序列	概率
P(O₁=V₁, O₂=V₃\|λ)	0.027 2
P(O₁=V₁, O₂=V₄\|λ)	0.130 8
P(O₁=V₂, O₂=V₁\|λ)	0.027 2
P(O₁=V₂, O₂=V₃\|λ)	0.010 0
P(O₁=V₂, O₂=V₄\|λ)	0.042 7
P(O₁=V₃, O₂=V₂\|λ)	0.010 0
P(O₁=V₃, O₂=V₄\|λ)	0.042 7
P(O₁=V₄, O₂=V₁\|λ)	0.117 6
P(O₁=V₄, O₂=V₂\|λ)	0.029 3
P(O₁=V₄, O₂=V₃\|λ)	0.029 3