Linking landslide deformation to triggering factors via isotonic constraints of displacement measurements

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209

Abstract

Abstract:

To accurately identify landslide deformation characteristics and triggering factors from monitoring data containing excessive noise, this study proposed a noise-reduction method for displacement monitoring data based on isotonic regression. It further established correlation rules linking deformation in different subzones to multi-level hydrometeorological conditions, incorporating time-lag effects. Using the Zhakoushi landslide in Fengjie County, Chongqing as a case study, displacement monitoring data before and after isotonic regression processing were comparatively analyzed to preliminarily investigate deformation patterns at different locations. The time delays between displacement at each monitoring station and rainfall and elevation of reservoir water level were calculated, enabling the extraction of association rules between deformation in these subzones and hydrometeorological factors, thus clarifying long-term deformation characteristics and its triggering mechanism of the landslide. The results demonstrate that the isotonic regression algorithm effectively removes non-physical noise while preserving intrinsic deformation information, considerably enhancing data quality. The landslide movements exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with the front part experiencing the most extensive deformation controlled jointly by reservoir drawdown and rainfall, followed by the rear part influenced by topography-enhanced rainfall recharge. The synergistic effect of rapid drawdown of reservoir water (>0.5 m/d) and intense rainfall (>30 mm/d), which generate an outward-directed seepage force and reduce matrix suction, is the primary triggering mechanism for the landslide.

Key words: global navigation satellite system (GNSS) displacement, isotonic regression, landslide deformation, triggering factor, association analysis

CLC Number:

X935

YE Xiao, SHEN Linxuan, YU Yiqiang, ZHAN Wei, ZHU Honghu. Linking landslide deformation to triggering factors via isotonic constraints of displacement measurements[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(3): 121-129.

Figures/Tables 9

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序号	T_R/d	PCC_R	NMI_R	T_RWL/d	PCC_RWL	NMI_RWL
G1	4	0.21	0.20	33	-0.33	-0.33
G2	12	0.35	0.34	49	-0.20	-0.20
G3	13	0.32	0.32	40	-0.21	-0.28
G4	18	0.33	0.22	64	-0.21	-0.17
G5	11	0.32	0.32	47	-0.22	-0.21
G6	2	0.30	0.30	26	-0.28	-0.28

规则	前项	后项	支持度	置信度
1	活跃态	大雨、慢速下降	0.01	1.00
2	活跃态	高库水位、慢速下降	0.01	1.00
3	活跃态	大雨、高库水位	0.01	1.00
4	活跃态	慢速下降	0.01	1.00
5	缓动态	高库水位、小幅波动	0.01	0.71
6	稳定态	小幅波动	0.80	0.80
7	稳定态	小雨	0.91	0.92

规则	前项	后项	支持度	置信度
1	缓动态	大雨	0.01	0.73
2	波动态	小雨	0.01	0.80
3	波动态	小雨、小幅波动	0.01	0.60
4	稳定态	小雨	0.90	0.91
5	稳定态	小幅波动、小雨	0.73	0.74

规则	前项	后项	支持度	置信度
1	活跃态	小幅波动	0.01	1.00
2	活跃态	大雨、高库水位	0.01	0.5
3	活跃态	暴雨	0.01	0.5
4	活跃态	高库水位	0.01	1.00
5	缓动态	小幅波动	0.02	0.82
6	稳定态	小幅波动	0.79	0.80
7	稳定态	小雨	0.90	0.92