Forest fire risk assessment and zoning application based on game-theoretic coordinated weighting

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.07.1520

Abstract

Abstract:

To scientifically identify and assess forest fire risk, a multi-dimensional evaluation system and model was established based on"Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability" framework. Taking Zhengzhou City as the study area, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and RF algorithm were combined to obtain subjective and objective weights, followed by consistency testing and game-theoretic coordination using the Kendall coefficient to derive combined weights. Forest fire risk assessment and zoning were conducted in Geographic Information System(ArcGIS) software, and model accuracy was validated through spatial overlay analysis with nearly a decade of historical fire point data. Results indicate that stable combined weights are obtained after game-theoretic coordination of subjective and objective weights. The areas with high and relatively high forest fire risk in Zhengzhou City account for 5.2% and 24.2% of the total area, respectively. Furthermore, 83.3% of the Sentinel-2 historical fire points are concentrated in high and relatively high-risk zones, demonstrating the good applicability of the proposed model.

Key words: forest fire, risk assessment, game-theoretic coordinated, combined weighting, risk zoning, random forest (RF) algorithm

CLC Number:

X915.5

Guo Xinyao, Li Liangru, Zeng Zhu, Lyu Wei, Zhang Ying. Forest fire risk assessment and zoning application based on game-theoretic coordinated weighting[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(7): 70-76.

Figures/Tables 7

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一级指标	二级指标	属性	数据来源
危险性	年降水量/mm	负向	国家地球系统科学数据中心
	平均气温/℃	正向
	平均风速/(m/s)	正向
	相对湿度/%	负向
	植被易燃性(分类变量)	正向	中科院资源环境科学与数据中心
	归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)	正向
暴露性	人口密度/(人/km²)	正向
	道路密度/(km/km²)	正向
	地均国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)/(万元/km²)	正向
脆弱性	消防设施密度/(个/km²)	负向	高德地图
	防火宣传教育/次	负向	郑州市应急管理局
	与河流的距离/m	正向	国家基础地理信息中心

指标因子	s_k	w_k	d(s_k, w_k)
年降水量	0.080	0.089	0.086
平均气温	0.096	0.149	0.130
平均风速	0.049	0.036	0.041
相对湿度	0.101	0.080	0.087
植被易燃性	0.085	0.105	0.098
指标因子	s_k	w_k	d(s_k, w_k)
NDVI	0.114	0.104	0.108
人口密度	0.108	0.109	0.109
道路密度	0.062	0.058	0.059
地均GDP	0.045	0.074	0.064
消防设施密度	0.109	0.020	0.051
防火宣传教育	0.075	0.101	0.092
与河流的距离	0.076	0.075	0.075

评估方法	准确率/%
RF	78.8
AHP	71.4
组合赋权	83.3