Comprehensive evaluation of intelligent emergency capability of metal mines on Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on ANP-VIKOR

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1530

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to enhance the emergency management capabilities of metal mines on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a comprehensive intelligent emergency capability evaluation model was developed based on the application of intelligent technology. By analyzing the region's unique geographical conditions and complex mining operations, a five-dimensional evaluation index system was proposed, encompassing intelligent technology, behavioral safety, resource allocation, institutional mechanisms, and community relations. This study employed ANP method to determine indicator weights and applied the VIKOR multi-criteria decision-making method to systematically assess the intelligent emergency capabilities of three representative metal mines (Mines Y, V, and J) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The findings indicate that the comprehensive evaluation system of smart emergency capability based on ANP-VIKOR covers 5 dimensions, including "intelligent technology, behavior safety, resource allocation, mechanism, and community relationship", with a total of 20 evaluation indicators. It fully integrates the complex geographical environment, extreme climatic conditions, and mining operation characteristics of the region. It is helpful to make up for the lack of quantitative research on smart emergency capability in plateau areas. In the case, the mine J exhibits the strongest intelligent emergency management capabilities, particularly excelling in intelligent technology and emergency response. Mine Y demonstrates a moderate level of technological application with notable improvements in emergency management over time, while Mine V shows room for improvement in resource allocation and emergency response speed. The significant differences in emergency capabilities reflect the uneven development of intelligent emergency systems in plateau mining areas. The effectiveness and adaptability of the constructed model are verified.

Key words: analytic network process(ANP), vlsekriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje(VIKOR), Qinghai-Tibet plateau, metal mines, intelligent emergency capability

CLC Number:

X913.4安全系统工程

WANG Guodong, HU Jiayu. Comprehensive evaluation of intelligent emergency capability of metal mines on Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on ANP-VIKOR[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(8): 253-262.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Fig.2

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指标	B₁	B₂	B₃	B₄	B₅	B₆	B₇	B₈	B₉	B₁₀	B₁₁	B₁₂	B₁₃	B₁₄	B₁₅	B₁₆	B₁₇	B₁₈	B₁₉	B₂₀
B₁		1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
B₂	0		0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1
B₃	0	0		1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
B₄	0	0	0		1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
B₅	0	1	1	1		1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1
B₆	1	1	1	0	1		1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
B₇	1	0	1	1	1	0		0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1
B₈	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1
B₉	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0		1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
B₁₀	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
B₁₁	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
B₁₂	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
B₁₃	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	1	0	1	0	1	0
B₁₄	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0		1	1	1	1	1	1
B₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0		0	0	1	1	1
B₁₆	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	1		0	1	1	1
B₁₇	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0		1	1	1
B₁₈	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1		1	1
B₁₉	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0		0
B₂₀	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1

编号	所在地区	海拔/ m	资源特征	应急管理做法	主要问题或不足
矿山Y	西藏昌都市	>4 500	铜、钼,伴生多种有价金属,品位较高	建立智能监控系统、应急指挥中心及现场指挥机制,实现数据集成与实时监控	在资源配置方面相对薄弱,物流响应时间和库存周转效率有待提升
矿山V	西藏拉萨市	>4 000	铜为主,伴生钼、铅、锌等资源	引入应急监控系统和智能化应急指挥平台,建立数据驱动的安全管理模式	在资源配置与应急响应速度上仍有提升空间
矿山J	西藏拉萨市	>4 000	铜、金、银、铅、锌等金属资源	部署实时监控设备与数据集成平台,建立高效指挥机制,配置尾矿库监控系统	系统集成程度仍有提升空间,协同演练频次可加强

一级指标	权重/%	二级指标	数据类型	方向	量化方法	权重/%
智能技术	37.53	高原实时监测系统完善度	占比	正向	1-故障时间/运行时间	11.85
		极端环境数据分析和预测能力	占比	正向	正确预测次数/总预测次数	7.59
		智能预警系统响应速度	时间/min	逆向	响应总时间/预警总次数	11.68
		紧急避险系统可靠性	等级评分(1-5)	正向	根据系统表现评定	6.41
行为安全	26.67	高原矿区应急演练频度	占比	正向	实际演练次数/计划次数	7.30
		团队协作效率	占比	正向	成功任务数/任务总数	5.82
		安全教育覆盖率	占比	正向	参训总人次/计划人次	2.90
		安全检查频度	占比	正向	实际检查次数/计划次数	10.65
资源配置	13.85	物资储备充足性	占比	正向	可用物资数/物资需求数	2.46
		物流响应时间	时间/min	逆向	响应总时间/响应次数	2.65
		库存周转效率	比率	正向	实际使用库存/平均库存	2.20
		人员和应急需求匹配度	占比	正向	有资质人员数/人员总需求	4.68
		应急资金和预算匹配度	占比	适度	实际使用应急资金/预算	1.86
制度机制	9.33	高原矿区分级响应机制有效性	等级评分(1~5)	正向	根据响应案例评定	2.84
		分级救援机制有效性	等级评分(1~5)	正向	根据救援案例评定	1.64
		内控整改机制有效性	等级评分(1~5)	正向	根据整改案例评定	3.52
		事故恢复机制有效性	等级评分(1~5)	正向	根据恢复案例评定	1.33
社群关系	12.62	高原矿区社区应急参与度	占比	正向	参与人数/社区总人数	3.53
		信息共享效率	占比	正向	共享信息数/应共享信息数	5.41
		舆情监测和危机处理能力	占比	正向	成功处置事件次数/检测次数	3.68

评估数据	B₁	B₂	B₃	B₄	B₅	B₆	B₇	B₈	B₉	B₁₀
V₂₀₁₉	90.2	94.1	5.0	97.7	91.2	89.4	97.1	99.1	96.8	48.0
V₂₀₂₀	92.9	91.6	5.0	91.2	91.1	93.1	99.9	97.3	91.4	41.0
V₂₀₂₁	90.4	90.8	5.0	97.1	90.6	99.5	99.9	99.9	94.5	30.0
V₂₀₂₂	91.6	94.4	5.0	98.3	90.7	91.2	97.3	94.8	93.4	29.0
V₂₀₂₃	97.1	85.7	4.0	99.9	94.7	86.2	97.6	92.8	95.9	26.0
Y₂₀₁₉	98.8	96.9	5.0	96.2	92.4	93.8	96.6	97.5	99.9	20.0
Y₂₀₂₀	96.7	94.4	4.0	92.3	98.4	92.0	97.7	91.0	95.6	1.0
Y₂₀₂₁	99.7	86.5	5.0	90.9	91.2	94.4	98.5	95.9	99.5	48.0
Y₂₀₂₂	93.8	96.4	3.0	96.5	97.9	88.2	98.6	92.0	98.5	30.0
Y₂₀₂₃	99.7	87.6	2.0	92.0	97.1	87.4	96.1	92.4	90.2	2.0
J₂₀₁₉	92.2	93.6	1.0	90.6	98.1	99.4	97.9	96.9	98.4	32.0
J₂₀₂₀	93.4	93.7	2.0	93.5	93.8	88.4	99.8	99.5	90.6	8.0
J₂₀₂₁	97.3	89.4	3.0	98.3	93.3	89.7	96.6	95.0	96.3	23.0
J₂₀₂₂	95.4	98.2	3.0	97.7	96.0	92.7	97.6	95.1	91.2	9.0
J₂₀₂₃	95.7	97.7	2.0	93.7	95.8	94.4	99.1	98.4	96.7	15.0
评估数据	B₁₁	B₁₂	B₁₃	B₁₄	B₁₅	B₁₆	B₁₇	B₁₈	B₁₉	B₂₀
V₂₀₁₉	85.1	92.4	95.7	5.0	3.0	4.0	5.0	81.0	97.6	95.2
V₂₀₂₀	95.7	92.0	96.7	3.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	76.2	90.2	89.1
V₂₀₂₁	89.5	97.0	98.1	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	91.7	91.3	96.1
V₂₀₂₂	97.9	96.8	97.3	5.0	4.0	5.0	4.0	94.9	94.3	92.8
V₂₀₂₃	94.1	92.7	95.2	4.0	3.0	5.0	4.0	86.1	90.2	97.0
Y₂₀₁₉	99.8	94.1	97.3	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.0	91.3	91.9	95.7
Y₂₀₂₀	96.7	98.2	95.4	3.0	5.0	4.0	5.0	86.4	94.6	92.0
Y₂₀₂₁	95.5	98.7	96.6	5.0	3.0	3.0	5.0	88.9	99.9	97.6
Y₂₀₂₂	87.0	95.7	99.8	3.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	91.5	94.0	93.8
Y₂₀₂₃	86.5	99.7	99.3	4.0	4.0	3.0	5.0	77.4	98.1	93.6
J₂₀₁₉	96.8	97.7	97.2	3.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	82.1	91.9	95.2
J₂₀₂₀	94.3	93.5	95.3	5.0	3.0	3.0	5.0	88.1	92.4	91.2
J₂₀₂₁	98.5	97.5	95.2	5.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	81.3	91.2	93.1
J₂₀₂₂	98.5	98.4	97.7	3.0	4.0	3.0	5.0	93.5	90.9	99.7
J₂₀₂₃	97.6	96.0	96.3	5.0	4.0	3.0	4.0	94.2	92.6	88.0

数据组合	群体效用值	个体遗憾值	折中值	排序
V_{201 9}	0.689 8	0.116 8	0.987 6	15
V_{202 0}	0.622 4	0.118 5	0.891 1	14
V_{202 1}	0.571 8	0.116 8	0.796 9	13
V_{202 2}	0.601 6	0.087 6	0.632 3	9
V_{202 3}	0.498 8	0.089 7	0.481 8	6
Y_{201 9}	0.550 8	0.116 8	0.762 9	12
Y_{202 0}	0.520 6	0.116 8	0.714 2	11
Y_{202 1}	0.515 2	0.094 5	0.543 2	7
Y_{202 2}	0.430 7	0.093 6	0.399 4	4
Y_{202 3}	0.508 5	0.058 6	0.270 8	3
J_{201 9}	0.501 9	0.116 8	0.684	10
J_{202 0}	0.514 9	0.106 5	0.629 8	8
J_{202 1}	0.501	0.078 6	0.404	5
J_{202 2}	0.424	0.058 4	0.132 4	2
J_{202 3}	0.380 4	0.049 9	0	1