A distortion analysis of probability importance formed by equal power law

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.007

Abstract

Abstract: For the sake of improving accurancy of probability importance of repeated events, it was demonstrated that the use of equal power law would eliminate the influence of repeated events probability on the top event probability. Firstly, the equal power law of Boolean algebra, the probability function of the top event, the definition of probability importance and its mathematical essence were introduced in detail. Then a general formula for probability importance of basic events was derived by using the partial derivative formula of compound multivariate function. Finally, three kinds of deviation laws caused by distortion were demonstrated through examples. The results show that for non-repetitive events, the formula can be degraded to the existing probability importance formula, and that for repeated events, the application of equal power law to the solution of probability importance will lead to distortion of results.

Key words: probability importance, compound multivariate function, equal power law, distortion, deviation

CLC Number:

X913

YIN Xiaobei, HUA Chengjie, WANG Haoze, ZHAO Rui. A distortion analysis of probability importance formed by equal power law[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(10): 38-42.

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