Abstract: To reasonably formulate the rules of assignment of crowed flow at the road intersection, an evacuation crowd diversion model was built, considering the characteristics of crowd aggregation and dispersion at the intersection. Based on the crowd evacuation process, a crowed evacuation network with capacity limitation was constructed. Coupled with the posterior road real-time congestion degree and the shortest residual evacuation path length, the probability of crowed flow distribution at the intersection node was calculated, and the flow transmission in the evacuation section was analyzed to reveal the rules of crowd movement in the evacuation network. The real-time congestion degree of the road section was considered, the crowed flow evacuation speed of the road section was corrected, and the evacuation time of the evacuation network was calculated to characterize the evacuation efficiency of the crowd diversion. The emergency evacuation of people from a certain a middle school in Shanghai was taken as an example, to which the evacuation crowd diversion model and the traditional crowd evacuation model models were applied. The results show that when the evacuated crowd is diverted at the road intersection, the evacuation time decreases by 13.34%, the evacuation efficiency is higher, the spatial distribution and temporal distribution of the crowd are more balanced, and the evacuation ability of the evacuation road network is fully utilized.

Key words: crowd evacuation, road intersection, road real-time congestion degree, shortest residual evacuation path length, distribution probability