Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.001

Abstract

Abstract: In order to study occurrence characteristics of system faults in SFEP, a method to determine target event state and probability was established based on SFN and quantum game theory. Game hypothesis was established based on safe and unsafe behaviors of managers and operators, hybrid strategy probability was represented by quantum mechanics. Then, probability of single event hybrid strategy, quantum game representation of event logic relationship, form of target event state and occurrence probability were studied. The results show that by using static game between manager and operator to determine expected benefits, by derivation can obtain probability of safe and unsafe behaviors of all parties, and obtain probability of all states of target event. However, because benefits of manager and operator determine probability of safe and unsafe behaviors, so probability of all states of target event is not accurate.

Key words: system fault evolution process (SFEP), target event state, occurrence probability, quantum game, space fault network (SFN)

CLC Number:

X913

CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(8): 1-7.

References

[1] VITOR H F, RAINER Z, MÁRCIO Z F, et al. Probabilistic transmission line fault diagnosis using autonomous neural models[J]. Electric Power Systems Research,2020,185: 1-10.
[2] 陈志煌,刘国恒,王莹莹,等.基于动态贝叶斯网络的水下连接器故障诊断[J].中国安全科学学报,2020,30(5): 81-87.
CHEN Zhihuang, LIU Guoheng, WANG Yingying,et al. Fault diagnosis of subsea collet connector based on dynamic Bayesian network[J].China Safety Science Journal,2020, 30(5): 81-87.
[3] 王文和,董传富,刘林精,等. 基于FTA-BN模型的页岩气井口装置失效概率分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2019,29(4): 89-95.
WANG Wenhe, DONG Chuanfu, LIU Linjing, et al. Failure probability analysis of shale gas wellhead devices based on FTA-BN model[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2019,29(4): 89-95.
[4] 张信哲,张治国,丁晓彬,等.部分可观时间Petri网故障的贝叶斯诊断[J].应用科技,2020,47(1): 61-67.
ZHANG Xinzhe, ZHANG Zhiguo, DING Xiaobin, et al. Bayesian estimation of fault diagnosis based on POTPN[J].Applied Science and Technology,2020,47(1): 61-67.
[5] 李雪,孙霆锴,侯恺,等.极端天气下电力系统大范围随机设备故障的N-k安全分析及筛选方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2020,40(16): 5 113-5 126.
LI Xue,SUN Tingkai,HOU Kai,et al. N-k security assessment and screening for large-scale random equipment faults in bulk power grid under extreme weather[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2020,40(16): 5 113-5 126.
[6] 柳杨,杜预,王志武,等.基于状态的核电厂大型电力变压器故障概率分析[J].电力设备管理,2020(1): 75-77.
LIU Yang, DU Yu, WANG Zhiwu, et al. Failure probability analysis of large-scale power transformers in nuclear power plants[J].Electric Power Equipment Management,2020(1): 75-77.
[7] NAGENDRA V P K, YIGANG H, MURAD A.Fault diagnosis of open circuit multiple IGBT's using PPCA-SVM in single phase five-level voltage controlled H-Bridge MLI[J].The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan,2020,9(1): 61-72.
[8] 张国辉,冯俊栋,徐丙立,等.基于故障特征信息量的诊断策略优化仿真研究[J].计算机仿真,2019,36(11): 317-321.
ZHANG Guohui, FENG Jundong, XU Bingli, et al. Research on DMFT test method based on hybrid diagnostic model[J].Computer Simulation,2019,36(11): 317-321.
[9] PAOLA C, ANDREA D G, GABRIELE M, et al. Data-driven fault diagnosis in SOFC-based power plants under off-design operating conditions[J]. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2019,44(54): 29 002-29 006.
[10] 崔铁军, 马云东. 多维空间故障树构建及应用研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013,23(4): 32-37.
CUI Tiejun, MA Yundong. Research on multi-dimensional space fault tree construction and application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2013, 23(4): 32-37.
[11] 崔铁军,马云东. 基于多维空间事故树的维持系统可靠性方法研究[J]. 系统科学与数学,2014,34(6): 682-692.
CUI Tiejun, MA Yundong. Research on the maintenance method of system reliability based on multi-dimensional space fault tree[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2014,34(6): 682-692.
[12] 崔铁军,李莎莎.人工智能系统故障分析原理研究[J/OL].智能系统学报.[2020-08-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20200720.1629.004.html.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Research on system fault analysis principle based on artificial intelligence system[J/OL]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems.[2020-08-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20200720.1629.004.html.
[13] 崔铁军,李莎莎.基于因素空间的人工智能样本选择策略研究[J/OL].智能系统学报.[2020-08-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20200720.1730.006.html.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Research on sample selection strategy of artificial intelligence based on factor space[J/OL]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems.[2020-08-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20200720.1730.006.html.
[14] 崔铁军. 空间故障网络理论与系统故障演化过程研究[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2020,20(4): 1 254-1 262.
CUI Tiejun. Profound trace and exploration into the space fault network theory and the system fault evolution process[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2020,20(4): 1 254-1 262.
[15] 崔铁军,李莎莎.少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生概率分布确定方法[J].智能系统学报,2020,15(1): 136-143.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2020,15(1): 136-143.
[16] 崔铁军,李莎莎.空间故障网络中边缘事件结构重要度研究[J].安全与环境学报,2020,20(5): 1 705-1 710.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Probe into the structure importance of the edge events in the space fault network[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2020,20(5): 1 705-1 710.
[17] 崔铁军,李莎莎.系统可靠-失效模型的哲学意义与智能实现[J/OL].智能系统学报.[2020-12-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20201119.1118.004.html.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Philosophical significance of system reliability-failure model and intelligent implementation[J/OL].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent systems.[2020-12-19].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20201119.1118.004.html.
[18] 崔铁军,李莎莎.系统运动空间与系统映射论的初步探讨[J].智能系统学报,2020,15(3): 445-451.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Preliminary study of system movement space and system mapping theory[J]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2020,15(3): 445-451.
[19] 张永德. 量子力学(第2版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2008: 35-55.
[20] 马天祥,贾伯岩,卢志刚,等.基于主从博弈理论的能源互联配电网多能互补协调故障恢复方法[J].电力自动化设备,2020,40(5): 38-47.
MA Tianxiang, JIA Boyan, LU Zhigang, at el. Multi-energy complement and coordinated post-contingency recovery method of distribution energy networks based on master-slave game theory[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2020,40(5): 38-47.
[21] 陈艳,吕云翔,谢运慧.基于PT-MA理论的PPP项目风险管理行为演化博弈分析[J].系统科学学报, 2020,28(4): 65-70.
CHEN Yan, LYU Yunxiang, XIE Yunhui. Evolutionary game analysis of risk management behaviors of PPP projects based on PT-MA theory.[J].Chinese Journal of Systems Science, 2020,28(4): 65-70.
[22] 兰立山,刘永谋,潘平.量子博弈技术化及其困境[J].科学技术哲学研究,2019,36(4): 70-74.
LAN Lishan, LIU Yongmou, PAN Ping. Quantum game theory: an example of science technicalization[J].Studies in Philosophy of Science and Technology,2019,36(4): 70-74.
[23] 崔铁军,李莎莎,朱宝岩.含有单向环的多向环网络结构及其故障概率计算[J].中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(7): 19-24.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha, ZHU Baoyan. Multidirectional ring network structure with one-way ring and its fault probability calculation[J].China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(7): 19-24.
[24] 崔铁军,李莎莎.少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生概率分布确定方法[J].智能系统学报,2020,15(1): 136-143.
CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems, 2020,15(1): 136-143.
[25] 何华兵,谢松云,许家栋,等.基于因子分解法的目标三维散射中心重构[J].空间电子技术,2014,11(2): 1-6.
HE Huabing, XIE Songyun, XU Jiadong, et al. Factorization method-based three-dimensional scattering centers reconstruction[J].Space Electronic Technology,2014,11(2): 1-6.
[26] 龙桂鲁.量子力学中的密度矩阵与具有相同密度矩阵的系综的可区分性[J].原子核物理评论,2005(4): 354-357.
LONG Guilu. Density Matrix in quantum mechanics and the distinction of ensembles having the same density matrix[J].Nuclear Physics Review,2005(4): 354-357.
[27] 何华灿. 泛逻辑学理论:机制主义人工智能理论的逻辑基础[J].智能系统学报,2018,13(1):19-36.
HE Huacan. Universal logic theory: logical foundation of mechanism-based artificial intelligence theory[J].CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems,2018,13(1):19-36.
[28] 吴茜.基于两种不同量子方案下斗鸡博弈模型的纳什均衡分析[D]. 大连:辽宁师范大学,2019.
WU Qian. Nash equilibrium analysis of the chicken game model based on two different quantum schemes[D]. Dalian: Liaoning Normal University,2019.