Prediction of availability and remaining life of train control center based on Markov

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.008

Abstract

Abstract: In order to prevent occurrence of equipment failure in the TCC, according to failure mechanism of TCC equipment, DFT was established, and reliability analysis was carried out by Markov theory, availability and remaining useful life prediction model of TCC based on Markov chain was proposed. State transition diagram was obtained from state transition relationship of each system, and then state equation was written out. Availability distribution functionand,reliability distribution functionand and formula of remaining service life were obtained. The research shows that weak link of TCC equipment was port input/output(PIO)>dian yuan(DY)> CI-TC>secure centre unit(SCU)>other communication interfaces. Considering CCF, steady-state availability of TCC reaches design standard, and average remaining life of TCC equipment is 186.256 months.

Key words: Markov chain, train control center(TCC), availability, remaining life prediction, common cause failure, dynamic fault tree(DFT)

CLC Number:

X928.03

QI Jinping, WANG Kang, ZHOU Yahui, LI Shaoxiong, ZHAO Ruihu, GUO Hao. Prediction of availability and remaining life of train control center based on Markov[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(10): 54-61.

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