Research on theory and method of landslide early warning in open-pit mine

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.029

Abstract

Abstract: For the sake of exploring the landslide warning method which can achieve early warning for the time and area, a new landslide warning criterion was established, and a weighted Markov chain theory based model was built for landslide warning ,and an evaluation criterion was established for early warning.The model was applied to the 4.17 landslide on top slope of Pingzhuang west open-pit mine as the engineering background. The landslide warning effects of 28 monitoring points near the landslide area were analyzed with sample size n was 20 and standard deviation ratio k was 0.4. The results show that the landslide warning model has a good effect in both time early warning and region early warning . The average warning intensity of 7 days is 77% for the landslide area and 6% in outside of the area, the average error warning rate is 0 and the average rate of consistency in predicting is 61% for all monitoring points.

Key words: landslide early warning, Markov chain, warning intensity, error warning rate, rate of uniform

CLC Number:

X928.03

CAO Lanzhu, WANG Zhen, WANG Dong, WANG Qianling. Research on theory and method of landslide early warning in open-pit mine[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(3): 163-168.

References

[1] 王东,王珍,曹兰柱,等.断层位置对露天矿顺倾层状边坡稳定性的影响研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(12):83-89.
WANG Dong,WANG Zhen,CAO Lanzhu,et al. Influence of fault's position on stability of dip bedded slope in surface mines[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2014,24(12):83-89.
[2] 王东,张晓敏,曹兰柱,等.凹边坡稳定性三维极限平衡法研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(7):91-95.
WANG Dong,ZHANG Xiaomin,CAO Lanzhu,et al.3D limit-equilibrium method for concave slope and its application[J].China Safety Science Journal, 2016, 26(7):91-95.
[3] SAITO M. Forecasting the time of occurrence of a slope failure[C].Proceedings of the 6^th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,1965:537-541.
[4] 许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等. 滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.
XU Qiang,TANG Minggao,XU Kaixiang,et al. Research on space-time evolution laws and early warning-prediction of landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.
[5] 许强,黄润秋,李秀珍.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(3):478-483.
XU Qiang,HUANG Runqiu, LI Xiuzhen.Research progress in time forecastand prediction of landslides[J].Advance in Earth Science,2004,19(3):478-483.
[6] 殷坤龙,晏同珍.滑坡预测及相关模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1996,15(1):1-8.
YIN Kunlong,YAN Tongzhen.Landslide prediction and relevant models[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1996,15(1):1-8.
[7] 李聪.边坡变形与稳定性演化预测预警方法研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2011.
LI Cong.Research on prediction and early warning of deformation and stability evolution of slopes[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University,2011.
[8] 文海家,张永兴,柳源.滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(1):4-7.
WEN Haijia,ZHANG Yongxing,LIU Yuan.A home and abroad investigative-tendency of landslide forecast[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2004,15(1):4-7.
[9] 许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.
XU Qiang,ZENG Yuping.Research on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.
[10] 张波,张景肖.应用随机过程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004:40-55.
ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Jingxiao.Appliedstochastic processes[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2004: 40-55.