China Safety Science Journal

Application of resilience theory in field of safety science

HUANG Lang, WU Chao, YANG Mian, WANG Bing

2017, 27(3): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.001

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In order to promote the research and practice of resilience theory in the field of safety science, the research value of system safety resilience was argued, then, the definition of system safety resilience was refined, and its concept frame was constructed. The research status of system safety resilience assessment was analyzed from qualitative and quantitative aspects,the qualitative assessment includes conceptual framework and semi-quantitative indicators, quantitative assessment includes methods which are based on area or system safety state. What' more, the research status of system safety resilience enhancement was analyzed. Finally, some of the problems existing in the researches on system safety resilience were discussed, and prospects were examined. The results show that system safety resilience research has a great theory and practice value, but there are some problems or erroneous tendencies in the current study, e.g., only limited to a single technical and physical system, and it is necessary to carry out in-depth study in the aspects of psychological safety resilience, urban life line safety resilience, etc.

Exploring factors influencing students water high-risk practices based on grounded theory

ZHANG Hui, WANG Bin, LUO Shi, XIA Wen

2017, 27(3): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.002

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The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing students' water high-risk practices. 24 participants (18 students, 3 lifeguards, 3 swimming teachers) were interviewed by means of semi-structured interview method based on the grounded theory. The interview materials were analysed through open coding, axial coding, and selective coding in turn. The results show that there are two main categories of influential factors, personal factors and environmental factors. Personal factors contain six subcategories, water safety knowledge, water safety skills, risk perception, drowning experiences, overconfidence, and sensation seeking. Environmental factors contain four subcategories, behaviors control of parent, affiliation with deviant peers, safety education of school, water environment. As a result, a theoretical model was built for the factors influencing students' water high-risk practices.

Research on correlations between human errors of raw controllers and characteristics of their nervous system

LI Jingqiang, LI Hao, WANG Yong, ZHAO Ning

2017, 27(3): 13-18. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.003

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In order to reveal the correlations between human error of raw controllers and nervous system characteristics, 60 controller students were selected to take a 20-minute performance test, which was designed to collect the data on the probability and the reaction time of mistake reaction, false reaction and miss reaction, and a PTS test, which was used to collect the data on nervous system characteristics, including strength, balance and mobility. The correlations between strength, balance and mobility and human error in time and space were explored by using the correlation and regression analysis methods. The results show that the probability of mistake reaction decreases first and then increases with the increasing of the strength and the probability of false reaction and miss reaction are negatively correlated with balance and mobility,that the reaction time of mistake reaction, false reaction and miss reaction are negatively correlated with strength, balance, and mobility, and that the indicators of characteristics of nerous system can be used to predict the probability and reaction time of human error.

Effect of noise level on unsafe behavior of humans

LI Min, JIA Huiqiao, LI Kaiway, NIU Yuwen, YAO Daifeng, JING Wenxia

2017, 27(3): 19-24. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.004

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In order to explore the effect of noise level on unsafe behavior of humans,15 subjects were exposed to four different noise environments when performing a disc tracking task. Their heart rate and skin potential were monitored by an acquisition system of Captive physiological indexes . The number of failures to do the tracking tasks was also recorded.The data were analyzed by using the software of SPSS19. 0.It was found that a high noise level resulted in high values of skin potential, heart rate, and skin temperature,and that it also resulted in a large numbers of failures to do the tracking task. ANOVO analysis shows that gender has significant effects on physiological parameters and attention,and that noise exposure for a short period of time does not significantly affect the person's physiological parameters, but can significantly affect the person's attention focus ability.The Duncan's multiple range test results show that the number of the failures under the medium or high noise level condition is significantly larger than that for the low noise or quiet condition, while the difference between that for low noise level and that for quiet state is not great.Regression analysis shows that the power function model can well reflect the effects of noise level on the people' attention.

Study on theory and characteristics of system safety structure

ZHANG Yudong, LYU Shujin, LYU Shuran, WANG Chunxue, LIU Fangming

2017, 27(3): 25-30. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.005

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In order to further perfect the discipline of system safety, and deeply explore the characteristics and rules of the system safety structure, based on knowledge of the safety system engineering, the system theory and safety principles, a theory of system safety structure were proposed and furmalated in this paper. Through cause analysis and study on evolution rule of safety structure for the system safety issues, concepts were defined for normal structure, strain structure and failure structure. The evolution rules of the three were analyzed. Then, a three evolutionary track structure model was built for reflecting the relationships between evolution of accident and disaster and change of system safety structure. The results show that the theory of system safety structure is a supplement to the safety analysis theory for complex system,and that this theory remedies the deficiency in the safety system science's theory concerning the relationship between system structure and system safety, and puts forward new ideas and methods for solving the safety issues of complex system.

Research on models for traffic conflicts involving non-motor vehicles at city intersection and their severity

GAO Zhijun, MA Lu, YAN Xuedong

2017, 27(3): 31-36. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.006

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For the sake of studying the characteristics of traffic conflicts involving non-motor vehicles at city road intersections, univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted between the numbers of straight-go non-motor vehicles, right-turn motor vehicles, equivalent cars after converting and the number of conflicts of motors with non-motor vehicles per unit time in the observation time according to actual operation characteristics of non-motor vehicles at a typical intersection in Hohhot. In order to reflect the severity of conflicts involving non-motor vehicles comprehensively and accurately, severity models considering and normalizing the influences of distance, angle and speed of conflict on the severity were built. Results show that the quadratic polynomial fitted with the number of straight-go non-motor vehicles and the number of conflicts has the best predictive performance among the 9 univariate regression models and its forecast accuracy of conflicts number is 85.3%,that the function fitted with the number of straight-go non-motor vehicles, the number of equivalent cars and the number of conflicts has the best predictive performance among the 4 multivariate regression models and its forecast accuracy is 92.4%, so it is the best forecast function of conflicts number,and that the established severity models for non-motor vehicle conflicts can be used to measure the severity of traffic conflict in practice.

Experimental study on flame strengthening with water mist in tunnel fires

LI Tao, XIE Wei, ZHANG Yuchun, XIAO Han

2017, 27(3): 37-41. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.007

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To discuss flame strengthening effect caused by water-mist in diesel pool fire, a 1∶10 water-mist fire fighting experiment platform was established based on Froude rule. By means of small scale model effects of, quantitatively factors,like nozzle pressure and pre-combustion time, on the flame strengthening caused by water-mist were studied. The results show that the main reason for flame strengthening phenomenon is boiling of both the water-mist and the fuel, only when nozzle pressure surpasses a critical value, there will arise the flame strengthening phenomenon,that the flame width and area increase obviously after strengthening effect, while the flame height has a slight decrease,and that the water-mist has three different strengthening effects on flame, which are divided into fast-weak strengthening, discontinuous-moderate strengthening and continuous-intense strengthening, and increasing pre-combustion time promotes, the flame strengthening degree gradually , and makes the fire hazard greater.

Numerical simulation of reasonable oxygen content in flue gas for preventing residual coal spontaneous combustion

HUANG Ge, WANG Jiren, DENG Cunbao, HAO Chaoyu, WANG Xinyang

2017, 27(3): 42-47. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.008

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In order to determine the reasonable oxygen content in flue gas for preventing spontaneous combustion of residual coal in gob, a 3D numerical model, based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and theory of coal-oxygen reaction, was built to simulate the residual coal's spontaneous combustion in top coal caving gob area in panel 8105 of Tashan Coal Mine. The migration of flue gas in gob, distribution of “three zones” of spontaneous combustion and temperature field with 3%-9% of O₂ content in flue gas were analyzed by numerical simulation. The results show that the injected flue gas can inert spontaneous combustion of the residual coal effectively. Along with decrease of oxygen content in the flue gas injected, the maximum width of the oxidation zone will decrease accordingly which is agreed with the curve of Boltzmann function and the maximum temperature of the residual coal will decrease exponentially. Lowering oxygen content in flue gas will improve the inerting effect of the residual coal. Based on the field measured data of the width of oxidation zone after nitrogen was injected, oxygen content is determined to be 7.08% as the reasonable upper limit in the flue gas for preventing spontaneous combustion of residual coal in gob.

Structural reliability rating of industrial building after fire considering fire resistance

PEI Xingwang, LI Huimin, MENG Hai, XU Chenxi

2017, 27(3): 48-53. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.009

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In order to more fully reflect the influence of fire on industrial workshop reliability, and ensure the accuracy of rating of structure safety after fire ,the existing reliability rating practice was examined ,and the fire resistance was introduced as a new rating indicator, including the refractory grade, fire crack and deformation .Fire resistance rating classification standard was established. A structural reliability comprehensive rating model was bulit for industrial buildings after fire,which considers the fire resistance and is based on Vague set similarity measurement theory. The model was applied to five engineering examples. The results show that the rating results obtained by using the model agree with the results obtained by using the standard rating methods,and that using the model can avoid errors resulted in by human factors.

Research on effect of posture on injury to driver in frontal collision

TANG Can, LI Pingfei, HUANG Haibo, LIU Na, ZHOU Ming

2017, 27(3): 54-58. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.010

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In order to study the effect of the posture on the injury risk of driver in frontal collision, based on test data of car crash, a simulation model was built for “vehicle cockpit-driver-constraint system” by using MADYMO software, and was verified. 100% frontal collisions at speed of 50 km/h were simulated. The injury to driver having 8 kinds of different posture was studied and analyzed after frontal collisions. The results show that the posture of driver has a great influence on the risk of injury to driver in frontal collision,and that the longitudinal position of driver has the greatest effect on the risk.

Damage analysis of urban gas PE pipeline under excavation load

ZHOU Liguo, YAO Anlin, XU Taolong, ZHOU Xue, SHANG Mao

2017, 27(3): 59-64. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.011

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In order to analyze the damage caused by third-party excavating construction to the PE pipeline, the dynamic response of the gas PE pipeline under excavation load was studied by using the ABAQUS finite element software. First,models were built respectively for the pipe, soil and pipe-soil contact, and the model for pipeline was simulated by Prony series. Then, strength, strain and deformation failure criteria of PE pipeline were established. Finally, the numerical simulation was carried out for two scenarios: the excavation load directly acting and not directly acting on the pipe. The simulation results show that PE pipeline is easiest to reach the strength failure limit under the excavation load,that the load acting directly on the pipeline causes remarkable stress concentration, and load which is not directly acting on the pipeline mainly affects the deformation of the pipeline, and that an external load directly acting on the pipeline is a major threat to its safe operation,and the covering soil layer can reduce the threat.

A method for analyzing risk in transportation dangerous goods based on QFD

YANG Qiang, LI Yanlai

2017, 27(3): 65-70. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.012

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In order to determine the values of relative importance of factors influencing risk in dangerous goods transportation, and facilitate dangerous goods transportation company to allocate limited resources,the paper was aimed at developing a method for analyzing the importance of factors influencing risk in dangerous goods' transportation based on the quality function deployment method. Firstly, QFD method was used to fully identify the risk factors in the service designs stage. Secondly, on the basic of both AHP and entropy value method,a model was built for assigning values to weights of experts, which can minimize the difference between the subjective weight and the objective weight. Finally, an evaluation model was built for risk factors importance in the fuzzy environment based on the fuzzy linguistic variables and triangular fuzzy numbers. Then values of relative importance of factors influencing risk in the transport process were obtained by using the model. The example's results show that transport equipment, traffic conditions, professional skills of practitioners, emergency equipment and emergency plans have a greater impact on the risk in dangerous goods' transportation.

Activity characteristics and transmission characteristics of high-position hard strata movement induced mine earthquake and its response

CHEN Xuehua, LYU Pengfei, SONG Weihua

2017, 27(3): 71-76. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.013

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For making study on the high-position hard strata mevement caused mine earthquake occurrence, transmission, its response, and induced rock burst more systematic, Dongtan coal mine 43_up13 working face was taken as an example,of which theoretical analysis, field monitoring and numerical simulation were carried out.A method,taking into account the hypocenter size,was worked out for describing mine earthquake transmission characteristics. The results show that the high-position hard strata movement is the main power source of high energy mine earthquake,that the hypocenters distributed along with the faults,that the amplitude of supporting resistance and frequency become higher before or after mine earthquake,that the cycle characteristic of high energy mine earthquake is manifested by a small cycle of 50 m in a big cycle of 100 m,that four high energy mine earthquakes occur in a big cycle,that the mine earthquake's dynamic response can be picked by multi parameter monitoring, and that the mechanism,by which a rock burst disasters is induced by mine earthquake,is that the different between the energy gathered and consumption in burst zone is increased by mine earthquake,and the rock burst will occur when the stiffness conditions are satisfied.

Experimental study on effect of pore pressure on permeability of coal

LI Bobo, YANG Kang , YUAN Mei, XU Jiang

2017, 27(3): 77-82. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.014

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In order to study influence of pore pressure on permeability of coal and gas migration law, pore characteristics of samples of two kinds of coal taken from Liupanshui mining area were studied by using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) and a specific surface area and micropore analyzer,and seepage experiments were carried out on the samples by using an independently developed traixial seepage device. The results show that the pore characteristics of coal and the amount of nitrogen adsorption are positively correlated with the pore fissure development degree, and also related to the pore connectivity,that when the pressure difference is constant, the permeability of coal decreases exponentially with the pore pressure, and when the pressure difference is small, the decrease rate of permeability decreases with the increase of pore pressure,and that the permeability of coal decreases exponentially with the increase of pressure difference between the two ends of the specimen.

Strong strata behavior mechanism under long distance overlapping coal pillar: taking multiple coal seams mining of Datong mining area as an example

ZHU Zhijie, ZHANG Hongwei, CHEN Ying, HUO Bingjie, TANG Guoshui

2017, 27(3): 83-88. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.015

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The paper was aimed at studying the strong strata behavior mechanism for the Datong mining area by numerical simulation and field measurement. Mining stress was analyzed by means of Universal Distinct Element Code (UDEC) numerical simulation software for the mining face under the effect of overlapping pillars. Using high-precision microseismic monitoring methods, the relationship between overburden strata movement and strata behavior was studied . The results show that mining face abutment pressure in the region Jurassic pillars correspond is higher, than that in non-coal pillar region by 25%-33%,that in the Jurassic coal pillar overlap area, the strata behavior under the coupling effect of coal pillar-overburden linkage and coal pillar-mining stress is more intense,that under the combined action of mined-out area and Jurassic overlying strata, the ground pressure of gob-side entry is strong, and that the strong strata behavior of carboniferous mechanized mining caving face is induced by coupling action of mining disturbance, abutment pressure from mined-out area and Jurassic overlapping coal pillar. A technology was developed for controlling strong strata behavior.

Study on micro-mechanism of rockburst tendency of rock mass in underground engineering

LI Moxiao, SONG Yinghua, LYU Wei, WANG Zhe, FANG Danhui

2017, 27(3): 89-94. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.016

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At present, there are more and more underground engineering projects facing more serious threat of rockburst. This thesis focuses on the study of micro-mechanism of rockburst based on the rock lithology. Four kinds of rock were chosen to and the data on the rockburs proneness mechanical tests and micro-structure tests. Based on both the data on the mineral composition and the data on the rockburs proneness of the samples, a quantitative criterion was established for the rockburst proneness .Two models were built respectively for series connection and parallel connection Mohs hardness-weighted to calculate the rockburst proneness. When the series connection Mohs hardness-weighted is bigger than 6.0 or the parallel connection Mohs hardness-weighted is bigger than 0.5, the rock shows strong rockburst proneness. When the series connection Mohs hardness-weighted is smaller than 4.0 or the parallel connection Mohs hardness-weighted of is smaller than 0.3, the rock shows weak rockburst proneness. The results show that the rock with hard and strong energy storage ability mineral shows strong rockburst proneness.

A study on multiple factors affecting pedestrian injury in pedestrian-car collision accident

JIANG Yang, HUANG Haibo

2017, 27(3): 95-99. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.017

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In order to reduce damage to the pedestrians in the pedestrian-car collision process and discuss the mechanism by which the multiple factors influence pedestrian injury, a platform of vehicle crash simulation was established and a model was built. The effectiveness of the model was checked through real accident case information. The simulation platform was used to calculate pedestrian kinematics response and damage degree after collision under multivariate factor conditions. The research shows that injury caused by collision between the pedestrian head and the earth is the main cause of the pedestrian death, that there is a positive correlations between the shin acceleration or the bending angle of knee joint and closeness of height of the bumper to height of the shin, and that reducing the bumper incline angle can decrease the risk of pedestrian leg injuries.

Prediction of height of water flowing fractured zone based on PCA-BP neural networks model

XIE Xiaofeng, LI Xibing, SHANG Xueyi, WENG Lei, DENG Qinglin

2017, 27(3): 100-105. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.018

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The prediction of the height of water flowing fractured zone is of great importance for coal mining safety. However, traditional regression methods haven't considered the influence of correlation coefficients between factors on prediction performance. In this paper, the mining depth, coal seam inclination angle, coal seam thickness, coal seam hardness, rock structure, the uniaxial compressive strength of rock, mining thickness and goaf plagioclase were identified as the influencing factors for height forecast of water flowing fractured zone. Then a PCA-BP neutral network was developed to forecast the height of water flowing fractured zone. Results show that the coal seam thickness has the greatest influence on the height forecast of water flowing fractured zone, while the mining depth and mining thickness have a smaller influence, and the others have a middle influence,and that the speed of convergence and prediction accuracy of the PCA-BP neutral network are both better than that of the BP neutral network with the highest prediction error of 5.58%.

Structural equation model for effects of edge line markings on risk of rear-end collision

DING Naikan, ZHU Shunying, WANG Hong, JIAO Nisha

2017, 27(3): 106-110. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.019

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To study the effect of driver's risk perception of rear-end collisions on car-following safety, the direct perception and indirect perception of the risk of rear-end collisions were preliminarily defined, and then the corresponding risk sources were also excavated in depth. Data on vehicle flows under practical conditions were collected by on-road field observation, and then the interactive causal relationships between various factors and the risk of rear-end collisions were explored with a SEM. The results show that the edge line markings with gap and/or offset give a "discontinuity effect", which leads to an increase in time headways,that the "discontinuity effect", the perception of edge rate and the collision estimation can synergistically increase the intensity of braking and then increase the time headways,and that the direct perception of risk of rear-end collisions can perform better in increasing time headways than the indirect one.

Reasonable coal amount of hydraulic flushing borehole considering creep displacement

LIU Wei, ZHANG Jingjun, KANG Fangchao, WEI Guoying, YAN Jiangwei, JIA Tianrang

2017, 27(3): 111-116. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.020

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Oversized hydraulic flushing penetration boreholes can easily led to the gas accumulation in the holes,which has became one disaster factor at the heading face in the process of tunneling.To work out a reasonable size for the borhores at the Xuehu coal mine,a numerical simulation by using the model of Cvisc in the FLAC^3D and a field monitoring activity were undertaken. One comparative analysis was conducted between the numerical simulation results and the field monitoring results.The result shows that influenced by the stress of coal steam ,the coal surrounding the borehole turns plastic and has creep characteristics quickly, and moves radially toward the center of the borehole after completion of the hydraulic flushing measures, and that the reasonable coal amount of the hydraulic flushing boreholes in Xuehu coal mining districts is 1.15 t/m.

Study on splitting deformation and energy absorbing safety characteristics of metal circular tubes

DAI Lianpeng, PAN Yishan, WANG Aiwen

2017, 27(3): 117-122. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.021

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For the sake of developig a new kind of energy absorbing component used in the anchor bolt tail, the deformation and energy-absorption properties of axial splitting and curling of metal circular tubes were studied with the tubes, which were 26 mm in diameter and 3 mm or 4 mm in thickness.The energy absorption principle was analyzed by the energy method. The results show that there are two typical load stages in load-displacement curves, peak load and constant load, and constant axial load reaches up to 59.34-116.60 kN and the energy absorption value with constant load reaches up to 4.92-11.47 kJ. The axial splitting specimens deform stably, producing radially spiralstrips,and axial splitting behavior dissipates energy by plastic deformation of diameter expansion, splitting of the tube wall and strip friction. The theoretical values of constant axial load and energy absorption are close to the experimental values.

Research on method for analyzing and assessing coupling risk in deepwater oil and gas transportation system

WAN Fangxing, HU Jinqiu, ZHANG Laibin

2017, 27(3): 123-128. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.022

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In order to study the coupling form of risk in deepwater oil and gas transport systems, evaluate them and ensure the safety of oil and gas transportation, three types in risk groups of deepwater transport system were considered,and a risk flow diagram of deepwater oil and gas transportation system was build by SD theory. Coupling relationships between the risk factors were examined, and their weights were determined by using the entropy method on the basis of the relationships, then, a nonlinear coupling model was bulit for the risks in the system . The model was used to calculate coupling degrees and the values of the risk groups. A certain deepwater oil and gas field in China was taken as an example. The results show that for the internal non-conventional flow risk system, the external environmental risk system, and the pipelines risk system,the internal non-conventional flow risk system has the highest integrated risk value,and the pipelines risk system gets the largest volatility of two-factor coupling, the risk of coupling between the pipeline risk system and internal non-conventional flow risk system is the greatest.

Experimental study on coupling relation between effervescent atomization droplet size and particle size of dust in confined space

ZHAO Xiaoliang, QI Qingjie, GE Shaocheng, HAN Fangwei, LYU Xue, BI Wenyi

2017, 27(3): 129-134. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.023

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A coupling experiment system was constructed with air and water as working fluid in confined space in order to reveal size coupling rule between droplet and fine particle. The airflow disturbance was simulated by using an Spraytec grain-size analyzer and an effervescent atomizing nozzle( the type of inner gas and external liquid ) under different conditions, which the relationships between dust removal efficiency and both dust particle size and droplet size were studied. Gompertz and Parabola functions were respectively established between ALR (ratio of air to liquid), droplet size (X_NS)and total dust removal efficiency(η) by numerical fitting.Gompertz functions were respectively established between ALR, X_NS, and η,η_{2 μm},η_{2-5 μm},η_{5-10 μm},η_{＞10 μm}. The best ALR range (0.4～0.6) for trapping respirable dust (Stokes diameter, d≤5 μm) and best ALR range(0.4～0.5) trapping inhalable dust (5 μm≤d≤10 μm) were proposed. The best X_NS range (15～25 μm) for trapping respirable dust and best X_NS range (25～30 μm) for trapping inhalable dust were proposed.

Uncertainty measurement model for evaluating reliability of mine dust-proofing water supply network

DENG Quanlong, JIANG Zhongan, WANG Pei

2017, 27(3): 135-140. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.024

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In order to study the safety reliability of mine dustproof water supply networks, factors affecting operation of the pipe networks were examined, thirteen evaluation indicators were identified, an evaluation indicator system was established, and the evaluation classification criteria were established. Based on the unascertainty measurement theory, an evaluation was built for mine dustproof water supply networks. Taking Fangezhuang coal mine as the object of application, the indicators were quantified and the measurement functions were constructed. The information entropy was used to determine the weights of the indicators. According to the identification criterion of confidence, the evaluation grade is Ⅱ, which shows that the network is safe and reliable. The model was applied to five typical coal mines taken as samples to evaluate, the safety reliability levels of their mine water supply networks. The evaluation results conform with the actual situation.

Characteristics and causes of accident in confined spaces

LIU Yan, YANG Chunli

2017, 27(3): 141-146. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.025

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In order to study characteristics and causes of accidents in confined space,the statistics method was used to examine the data on the accidents happened in confined space during 2006-2015 in Beijing. Type, time, region and cause of the accidents were analyzed.The social network analysis method was used to identify the key factors influencing management of work safety in confined space. The result shows that main types of accidents are poisoning and suffocating, and the accidents occur commonly in summer. Regional distribution of accidents is related to the regional distribution of permanent resident population,that there is a positive correlation between the number of accident in a district and the population in it,that unsafe acts are the direct reason of the accidents, and no detection and ventilation before entering confined space and no wearing protective equipment are the main unsafe acts,that defects in management of work safety are the indirect cause of the accident,and that key factors affecting confined space safety management are leadership safety consciousness, safety input, and training in work safety.

Research on safety supervision mechanism of maritime dangerous goods based on 6W model

ZHANG Xiangshang

2017, 27(3): 147-151. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.026

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For the sake of increasing capacity for prevention of maritime dangerous goods accidents, based on the characteristics of safety supervision risk assessment, the 6W analysis method was optimized from aspects of human, object, time, location, link and measure among others. A universal 6W safety supervision model was built. A safety sub-target selection, assessment procedure and principles for assessment results coupling were described. A safety supervision mechanism was provided for maritime dangerous goods. It is demonstrated that the 6W model can be used to identify supervision weak links from the aspects of human, circumstance and object as well as emergency response, and work out effective safety supervision measures.

Comparative analysis of vulnerability of urban metro network

DENG Xudong, WANG Xue, XU Wenping, FAN Youju

2017, 27(3): 152-156. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.027

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For the sake of ensuring safe operation of a metro network and reducing the severity of consequences of emergency events, a model was built for evaluating the vulnerability of metro networks according to the accessibility between different stations after the events and the effects of failure stations on the whole link. Responses of 5 types of metro networks to both random attack and premeditative attack were simulated by means of Matlab.The results show that the failure of a station has an impact on the line, which in turn affects the vulnerability of the entire subway network, that the metro network shows greater vulnerability to the intentional attack, and that there is difference in valnerahility to attack between the five subway network structure types .

Research on method for assessing risk in ground approach under point merging procedure

ZHAO Xiangling, LEI Biyu

2017, 27(3): 157-162. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.028

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Point merging approach flight procedure requires assessing approach risk in order to ensure the safety of continuous descent operation . Based the fan-shaped area characteristic of point merging system,a method was worked out for designing the protected area. A workflow was designed for searching key obstacles and a mothed of ground approach risk assessment of key obstacles was provided. A test of risk assessment was conducted for the point merge approach flight procedure of Changsha Huanghua International Airport 36 runway, with 10 obstacles, several flight altitude standard deviations for each obstacle and 30 altitudes for each deviation. The result show that when the flight deviation is less than 50 meters, the aircraft can satisfy the requirement of flight procedure safety standard of International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO). Otherwise, a collision risk exists in the ground approach process.

Research on theory and method of landslide early warning in open-pit mine

CAO Lanzhu, WANG Zhen, WANG Dong, WANG Qianling

2017, 27(3): 163-168. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.029

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For the sake of exploring the landslide warning method which can achieve early warning for the time and area, a new landslide warning criterion was established, and a weighted Markov chain theory based model was built for landslide warning ,and an evaluation criterion was established for early warning.The model was applied to the 4.17 landslide on top slope of Pingzhuang west open-pit mine as the engineering background. The landslide warning effects of 28 monitoring points near the landslide area were analyzed with sample size n was 20 and standard deviation ratio k was 0.4. The results show that the landslide warning model has a good effect in both time early warning and region early warning . The average warning intensity of 7 days is 77% for the landslide area and 6% in outside of the area, the average error warning rate is 0 and the average rate of consistency in predicting is 61% for all monitoring points.

Route selection method for emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory

WANG Weiqiang, ZHANG Chunmin, ZHU Changfeng, FANG Gang

2017, 27(3): 169-175. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.030

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In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of emergency supply transportation, a CPT based model was built after careful consideration of the subjective factors and attitudes of decision makers to risk,for path selection for emergency logistics. Firstly, multiple reference points in the CPT model were expanded according to the features of emergency logistics. Then, travel time and transport volume were selected as two heterogeneous reference points of the model. Two models were built for assuming values to the reference point based on the travel time reliability and the path reconfigurability. Finally, to compare the effects decision makers' risk attitude have on the result of decision making, the decision makers were classified into a risk seeking group and a risk avoiding group in a case study. The results of the case study show that the method accords with the actual decision-making mechanism, by which the rescue efficiency will be effectively enhanced. Moreover, parameter setting has a vital impact on the prospect value of the path.

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