China Safety Science Journal

Research on theory and application of pan-scene data for behavioral safety

TONG Ruipeng, CHEN Ce, LIU Silu, LU Heng, MA Jianhua

2017, 27(2): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.001

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In order to further excavate the safety rules in the statistical data,the theoretical connotations of pan-scene data were analyzed on the basis of scene research.The pan-scene data on unsafe behavior were described by 7 dimensions namely time, position, behavioral individual, unsafe action, behavioral nature, behavior trace and risk level.The pan-scene data can be collected from real scenes and abstract scenes.Then,the application of the pan-scene data was implemented through the single dimensional statistical analysis and multi-dimensional association rules mining.871 pan-scene data on unsafe behaviors in 225 gas explosion accidents were collected.Then,a statistical analysis and association rules mining were carried out for the data.The results show that the theory of the pan-scene data can be used for mining and releasing data value effectively and analyzing the intrinsic characteristics of unsafe behavior from multi dimensions deeply.

A study on fundamental issues concerning safety design

LI Xiaoyan , WU Chao

2017, 27(2): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.002

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For the sake of improving principles of safety design and defining safety design rules fundamental issues concerning safety design were explored by means of a method integrating theory with practice. Based on the principles of safety science, system science and design science, the safety design was difined. Its main features were analyzed from theoretical perspectives. A systematic research on the basic issues and process of safety design was conducted by using literature analysis and inductive method. Three guidelines were generalized, which contain six basic ideas, six basic concepts, and seven basic principles. General constructional steps of safety design with the safety task-actual operation-safety effect as mainline were proposed. A methodology-technology structure diagram was plotted. The design patterns were classified according to the specific standard. The research results make the direction and category of the safety design more definite.

Study on rumor propagation and intervention considering rumor refutation of public and feedback mechanism

SONG Qinghua, CHEN Jianhong

2017, 27(2): 13-17. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.003

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For the sake of reducing the negative effect brought by rumor propagation in the absence of official rumor refutation information, a rumor propagation model was built and mean-field equations were established after considering rumor refutation of public and feedback mechanism. The equations were analyzed and then solved with the four-order Runge-Kutta method.The threshold for rumor propagation was determined. Parameters in the system were used to represent influencing factors including public's critical consciousness, public's rumor refutation ability, strength of rumor refutation information feedback mechanism and importance of identifying rumors. Rumor propagation results were interpreted by rumor propagation fierceness and negative influence scope. Influence of changing one influencing factor on rumor propagation results was analyzed. Results show that improving public's critical consciousness and rumor refutation ability, facilitating rumor refutation information feedback mechanism, and priority management of rumors based on importance of rumor identification are effective rumor management measures.

A study on dynamic quantitative evaluation of train driver's fatigue risk

LI Xiang , XU Yuping , ZHANG Hailiang

2017, 27(2): 18-23. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.004

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In view of the diversity and variabilityof driver fatigue causes, a multi index dynamic evaluation method of train driver's fatigue risk was developed. With fully considering the dynamic effects of various time-varying factors on the train driver's fatigue, a more reasonable evaluation indexes system was established. And the objective quantification methods of correlative time-varying factors were studied to improve assigning values to the indexes. In order to reduce the influences of subjective factors on multi index weighting, the indexses were weighted and a comprehensive evaluation model was built based on IAHP for dynamic quantitative evaluation of the train driver's fatigue risk in different working periods.Example analysis results show that the the fatigue risk dynamic curve obtained by this method is consistent with the actual working condition and the fatigue self assessment scale score of the train driver.

A study on intergenerational impact of destructive leadership on miners' safety performance

WANG Dan , GONG Jingjing , CUI Limiao

2017, 27(2): 24-29. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.005

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In order to improve the mine managers' safety leadership and miners' safety performance level,a path model was built and verified for the effects of destructive leadership on miners' safety performance after considering regulatory focus theory and generational difference.The state-owned coal mining enterprises' 316 miners were surveyed by means of copies of a questionnaire.The methods of SEM and hierarchy regression analysis were employed to test the model.The results show that destructive leadership is correlated positively with safety participation and negatively with safety compliance,that promotion regulatory focus plays a partial mediation role in the relationship between destructive leadership and safety performance,and defensive regulatory focus plays a partial mediation role in the relationship between destructive leadership behavior and safety compliance behavior,and that the generational moderating effect is significant. In brief,the destructive leadership has a positive effect on safety performance, and the managers should pay close attention to ages of the miners and the trends in the regulatory focus and adopt a proper style of management in practice.

Couplinganalysis model for habitual violation behavior

SUN Jinguang , LIU Lu , NIU Lixia

2017, 27(2): 30-35. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.006

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In order to explore the relational characteristics between and within the attributes of HVB, a coupling association analysis model of HVB should be built. Firstly, distribution characteristics and association relationships of the violation attribute values were analyzed. The correlation coefficients of the corresponding attributes under various violations were obtained by using the ARM and coupling relation theory. A set of coupling correlation degree vectors, meanwhile, was obtained,and the vectors were ranked from large to small. And then, according to the sorted coupling correlation degree vector set, the coupling association analysis model of HVB was mapped. In the end, 3 indicators, recall rate, precision rate and mean absolute error (MAE) were introduced to solve the indicators results of the data set and the model. A comparison was made between the model and ARM analysis results.The result shows that the model performs well in accuracy and comprehensiveness for habitual violation behavior's association relationship analysis.

Development and application of required delivered density test system

YU Dongxing, LI Yi, LIU Xin, WANG Jianqiang, TIAN Liwei, HAN Guang

2017, 27(2): 36-40. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.007

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For the sake of determining RDD for extinguishing the fires in typical places, an RDD test system was established. With dismountable structure and integrated design, the system was made up of a water distributing system,a frame and a control system. It was applied to determining RDD of the minimum unit of fire-test model of medium risk II industrial building. The result shows that under the specified experimental condition, the RDD value of the test model is about 10.0 mm/min.

Study on establishing personnel safety criteria in performance-based fire design

ZHANG Bosi , ZHANG Jiaqing , MENG Yanhua

2017, 27(2): 41-46. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.008

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The personal safety criteria in most of existing performance-based fire design codes and guidelines were investigated for considering their rationality. The criteria for critical smoke layer height, heat, visibility and concentration of toxic gas were included. Results show that the criterion for critical smoke layer height is affected by the building height, therefore compartments such as atrium and warehouse should be considered,that the tolerance of human to convection heat is affected by the humidity, so the increasing in humidity due to water-based fire extinguishment needs to be considered, that the criterion for critical visibility should be established according to the compartment size, as well as the effect of irritant gas in smoke on people, and that before the criterion for toxic gas is established,the acceptable personal safety level should be defined.

Experimental study of several inorganic salts-type inhibitor of oxygen consumption rate

WANG Hongfei , WANG Jiren , HAO Chaoyu , HE Fei

2017, 27(2): 47-52. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.009

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The paper was aimed at studying problems relating to application of iron-containing inorganic salt type fire inhibitors in coal mine fire protection.Laboratory-scale experiments were performed to observe effects of factors,composation of inhibitor,oxygen volume fraction in the atmosphere,temperature among others,on the oxygen consuming rate. The results show that the faster the oxygen volume fraction in the atmosphere, the higher the rate of oxygen consumption,that the oxygen consumption rate of the oxygen consuming fire inhibitor is increased by the increase in the temperature,that the amount of diatomite in the inhibitor has a significant effect on the oxygen consumption rate,that MgCl₂,NaCl,KCl and CaCl₂ differ from each other in the effect on the rate,and that there is a negative correlation between the oxygen consumption rate and the amounts of inorganic salts. When using the same amount of inorganic salts, the rate of oxygen consumption is v(MgCl₂)>v(NaCl)>v(KCl)>v(CaCl₂). With the increase of inorganic salt, the oxygen consumption rate was slowed down, and the oxygen consumption rate was the fastest using 0.15 g MgCl₂ deoxidizing agent.

Experimental study on effect of length of branch on intensity of gasoline-air mixture explosion in pipeline

JIANG Xinsheng, WEI Shuwang, XU Jiannan, LI Guoqing, YUAN Guangqiang, LI Yangchao

2017, 27(2): 53-57. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.010

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In order to study the effect of length of branch pipe on gasoline-air mixture explosion, experiments were carried out by using an experimental platform established by the authors. The volume fraction of the gasoline in the mixture was 1.75%. The changes of overpressure, rate of pressure rise, flame propagation velocity and flame intensity were analyzed. The results indicate that overpressure, rate of pressure rise, flame propagation velocity, flame intensity and flame duration are strengthened with the existence of branch pipe, and the longer the branch pipe is, the greater the effect will be, and that the pressure relief effect of area sudden expansion in the shorter branch and the dissipation effect of wall play an important role in the declining of flame propagation velocity in the part of the pipeline beyond the branch.

Research on application of HHT and SVM in safety assessment and prediction for mechanical equipment

XUAN Jinquan, WANG Xiaohong, LU Dawei, WANG Lizhi

2017, 27(2): 58-63. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.011

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In this paper, the vibration condition monitoring technique is adopted for mechanical equipment, based on which the HHT method is utilized to processvibration signals; the vibration frequency-domain energy value obtained is taken as the characteristic quantity to represent the performance degradation of mechanical equipment. Then the Grid Search(GS) and Cross Validation(CV) methods are used to optimize the parameters of SVM, so as to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation characteristic quantity. Therefore, a state space division method is developed to assess and predict the safety status of mechanical equipment. Finally, the method developed by the authors was used for assessing and predicting the vibration state and the corresponding safety status of brushless direct current motors.The results show that the prediction error is only 1.17%.

Modeling for prediction of maximum endurance time in a static pallet truck pulling task with single arm

YI Cannan , LI Kaiway , SHI Shiliang , TANG Fan , HU Hong , CHEN Chengfeng

2017, 27(2): 64-69. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.012

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A simulated static pallet truck pulling task was designed and performed to investigate the development of muscular fatigue in a truck pulling task with single arm. The MVC of single arm before and after pulling, and MET, were measured, and the RPE data on muscular fatigue after pulling were collected using the Borg CR-10 to explore the influences of both load and body mass index(BMI) on MET, pulling strength and its variation before and after pulling, and RPE. Also, MET models were built based on the data for predicting the development of muscular fatigue in single arm pulling task. The results show that only load affects the MET significantly, that MET models of exponential function and power function are consistent with the existing MET prediction models ,and that prediction by the models built by the authors is more accurate than that by each of the existing models .

A risk matrix analysis method considering cognitive uncertainty

DUAN Yongsheng , ZHAO Jiguang , CHEN Peng , ZHAO Beilei

2017, 27(2): 70-74. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.013

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In order to deal with the inconsistency of element level allocation in CRM, a new risk matrix analysis method, considering the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers, was proposed. Firstly, the risk indexes were calculated by adopting the “multiplication principle” of level numbers. The risk indexes were used as the basis for level allocation of risk matrix. Secondly, the decision maker's attention coefficients were incorporated to describe the influences of potential risks. The traditional risk index calculation model was modified by the attention coefficients. Then, the modified continuous probability consequence diagram (CPCD) was mapped to the CRM. The risk matrix element levels were allocated based on the principle of maximum risk index. The risk level quantification process of a certain type of cryogenic liquid hydrogen filling system on a certain space launching site was analyzed by this method. The results show that risk level allocation schemes of different filling procedures can be obtained with the modified risk index model,and that the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers has an influence on risk level allocation of the cryogenic liquid hydrogen filling system.

Solid-gas coupling model for gas drainage from boreholes and its application

WEI Guoying , LOU Zhen , TAO Dongdong , JIA Tianrang , YAN Jiangwei , QIN Binbin

2017, 27(2): 75-80. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.014

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To study gas(methane) transport mechanism during the drilling drainage process from coal seams, the deformation of coal in different areas around drilling boreholes and the dynamic change in the permeability were discussed, and coal gas flow coupling equations were deduced for both relief zone and non-distressed zone around drilling boreholes.A geometric model was established according to the coal seam's physical parameters of 15-31010 working face of a mine, then the equations were solved by using COMSOL Multiphysics finite element analysis software. The coupling relations between coal deformation, the dynamic penetration and gas pressure around drilling were analyzed on the basis of the simulation results. The simulation results were verified for the related parameters by drainage effects in field. The results show that during the gas drainage process, coal gas pressure gradually decreases over time,that the gas pressure in relief zone increases significantly along the center of a drilling borehole and the growth rate of gas pressure in non-distressed zone gradually slowes down and eventually tends to be stabilized,that the permeability follows is a“V”-shape pattern of variation around drilling boreholes,that the coal deformation in relief zone is larger than that in non-distressed and there is a negative correlation between the deformation of coal and the distance of the measuring point from the borehole.The simulation results conform basically with the reality.

Magnetic memory detection method for early damage based on Shewhart control chart

LENG Jiancheng , ZHANG Jingwei , GAO Yatian

2017, 27(2): 81-85. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.015

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In order to perfect the qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating metal early damage using magnetic memory technique, torsion tests of circular specimens made of Q235 steel were conducted.The tangential component H_x and normal component H_y of magnetic memory signals under different torques were recorded by a stress concentration indicator. An early damage diagnosis approach via magnetic memory signals based on Shewhart control chart was developed. The results show that the magnetic signal produces an sharp change when the specimen is yielding, corresponding to the maximum synthetic magnetic field gradient value, and that having the aid of the Shewhart control chart the interference of fluctuating gradients in the judgement can be eliminated abnormal warning ranges can be indicated accurately when yielding, and quick and accurate identification of early damage.

Study on soil corrosion behavior of urban gas buried pipeline of ductile iron

LIU Aihua, ZHANG Yalan, LIANG Fengting, CHEN Shiqiang, XU Wenbin

2017, 27(2): 86-91. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.016

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In order to solve the frequent failure problem of urban gas buried pipelines under the action of soil corrosion, soil corrosion simulation tests were carried out. Firstly, the main soil corrosion factors were identified by the combination method of the system dynamics flow diagram and the grey correlation. Then standard corrosion test slices of ductile iron were taken as the experimental material.Importance degrees of soil corrosion factors in the test area were obtained by orthogonal simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the water content is the main factor affecting the corrosion macroscopic feature of the specimen, and it is followed by the porosity ,salt content,sulphate radical cotent,chloridion content,and PH value,that except pH value, influences of the factors on ductile iron are similar to those on carbon steel,and that the influence of pH on ductile iron is not obvious, and ductile iron has better acid corrosion resistance than carbon steel.

Model-based study on collapse of tailing sreservoir dam under earthquake action and reinforcement scheme

JIN Jiaxu , CUI Hongzhi , LIANG Bing , ZHOU Kelin , JI Wenming

2017, 27(2): 92-97. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.017

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In order to study the dynamic characteristics and failure law of general tailings reserviors under earthquake action, and explore the method of dam reinforcement, model-based experiments were carried out by using a shaking table. Data on crest acceleration, displacement and deformation were collected by accelerometers, laser displacement sensors,a dynamic data acquisition system and a high speed camera. The results show that there is a “throwing” phenomenon in the two-thirds of dam slope under seismic load,that the acceleration amplification coefficient is not affected significantly by the elevation of the dam, and decreases with the increase of the peak acceleration, that when the input peak acceleration reaches 0.4 g, the tailing reservoir undergoes liquefaction, slipping and cracking, which eventually leads to dam-break,that after the breaking, the mud continuously evolves along the downstream until stagnation, and the accumulation is triangular,and that the tailings reserviors dams' stability can be improved obviously by driving anti-slide piles into the earth at the dam bottoms.

Analyzing traffic crash under iced and snow weather condition based on Adaptive Lasso and RF

ZHAO Wei , XU Liangjie , RAN Bin , WANG Jizhou , ZHANG Xuan

2017, 27(2): 98-103. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.018

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In order to analyze the factors affecting traffic crashes under ice and snow weather conditions and make clear of the specific impact factors by driving environment, driver and vehicle conditions. This study analyzes risk factors which are differently relative to crash severity based on hybrid algorithm of Adaptive Lasso and RF which was trained with ten-year three hundred thousand crash data. The results show that the hybrid algorithm is superior to the support vector machine(SVM), the classification and regression trees(CART) and RF in both the accuracy and the fitting degree,that there is the most significant correlation between environmental factors and crashes,that accidents on slopes,curved roads,and at intersections are caused by the decrease in the road surface skid resistance,that there is a negative correlation between fatal crashes and use of safety belts,that woman is liable to make mistakes in driving,and that local drivers usually overestimate their driving skills, which leading to crashes.

Process and mechanism of fine grained tailings dam's failure due to overtopping

DU Yanqiang , WANG Xinwu , ZHANG Kun , WANG Xiaoqiang , YANG Chunhe

2017, 27(2): 104-108. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.019

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The study was aimed at learning about the mechanism and process of dam failure induced by overtopping in fine grained tailings ponds. The failure mechanism of overtopping was analyzed theoretically and the results show that dam-break results from three processes, namely, the breach forming process facilited by traction force of the water flow, the process in which the released flow is deepening the breach, and the broadening process of the breach by landslide. Referring to research findings of analogous earth-filled dam, tailings dam's failure process due to overtopping was analyzed. It was discovered that for fine grained tailings dams, collapse is a process in which the dam is disintegrated layer-by-layer from downstream to upstream in lateral direction, and that washing the slope causes landslide intermittently in longitudinal direction, and both the effects lead to dam failure.

Study on relationship between rock burst and microquake influence factor

YIN Wanlei , PAN Yishan , LI Zhonghua , YAN Haipeng , LI Guozhen

2017, 27(2): 109-114. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.020

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The occurrence of mine earthquake is controlled by many factors. In order to study the effect of mine earthquake distribution on rock burst under different conditions of incentives, the travel time formula and the critical distance formula were got by means of inversion calculation,and rock burst mechanism and distribution were analyzed from aspects of key stratum movement and the stability of the mining speed on the basis of data collected during seismic detection. Research results show that, the occurrence of mine earthquake can be divided into a number of activity periods,that the microseismic signals first gather in the main roof, then spread to the key strata, finally appeare in the main roof, that changes in mining speed can cause sudden roof caving,and speeding up mining makes a high stress concentration area appear in front of working face, and the distance between the two becomes shorter and shorter as the working face advances,and that a sudden increase in daily footage has s singnificant effect on both the earthquake magnitude and the frequency.

Distribution characteristics and calculation methods of impact force brought by landslide surge on pile structure

BAI Wei , CHENG Yongzhou , HUANG Xiaoyun

2017, 27(2): 115-120. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.021

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The pile is a kind of structure widely used in aquatic buildings such as bridge and dock. The impact force on the pile brought by landslide surge is crucial to the stability and safety of the whole aquatic building. On the basis of physical model experiments, characteristics of impact force brought by landslide surge on the pile were studied. Based on relevant data, a formula was worked out for calculating the extreme value of dynamic hydraulic pressure on the pile. The experimental results show that the maximum hydrodynamic pressure emerges when the volume surge spreads to pile, and there is a roughly negative correlation between its extreme value and the depth of the measuring point, which is similar to the solitary wave,and that the impact surge produces the second hydrodynamic pressure, and it decreases with the increase of water depth, which is similar to the regular wave.

Experimental study on ground detection of gas well down-hole tubing leak based on acoustic method

LIU Di , FAN Jianchun , LIANG Zhengwei , ZHANG Ximing , LYU Ningyi , WEN Min

2017, 27(2): 121-126. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.022

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In order to research the method of leak detection for down-hole tubing based on acoustic method, experiments were conducted after designing and setting up the full-size tubing leak system. On the basis of analyzing leak acoustic waves generating mechanism of tubing strings, a ground detection mechanism and an implementation way were presented. The signals measured in the experiments were analyzed in time and frequency domain. The results indicates that the time domain characteristics AMV and RMS of leaking acoustic wave signals are increasing with the increase in both orifice diameter and pressure difference,that the frequency domain distribution of leak acoustic waves is widely and mainly centralized in 1-130 Hz,that the main peak value of auto-correlation coefficients as well as the ASL and RMS characteristics and the frequency domain distribution of detecting signals can be used to judge the occurrence of leakage,and that using auto-correlation analysis the detection and localization of down-hole tubing leakage can be achieved with a high accuracy.

Simulation of dust diffusion in fully mechanized excavation face having large cross-section under FPNA ventilation condition

XIAO Junfeng, XU Feng, FAN Shixing, LU Ping, SHEN Xue, CHEN Zhongwei

2017, 27(2): 127-132. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.023

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In order to improve the effect of dust removal by ventilation in fully mechanized excavation face of large cross-section, a steady discrete phase model (DPM) was built in Fluent software for a vice inclined shaft, having an effective sectional area of 24.9 m² and an air rate of 1 500 m³/min,of Longwanggou Mine under far-pressing-near-absorption ventilation. It was used to research the effects of both the forced and exhaust ventilation opening positions and the pressure extraction ratio on the diffusion. The results show when the distance from the forced-ventilation opening to mechanized excavation face and the distance from the exhaust-ventilation opening to mechanized excavation face are respectively 27.5 m and 5.0 m, and the ratio of pressure air volume to extraction air volume is 1.2, the effect of dust extraction by combined ventilation is optimal. And moreover, results from the numerical simulation conform with the measured results on the spot.

Research on health and safety risk assessment of operational tunnels based on cloud reasoning

WU Xianguo, QIN Yawei, SHEN Meifang, ZHANG Limao, ZHANG Wei

2017, 27(2): 133-138. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.024

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In order to promote safety risk assessment of the operational tunnel structure health, the cloud model was adopted to discuss the randomness and fuzziness in the uncertainty information. And a level of safety risk evaluation method was worked out based on two-dimensional and multidimensional cloud reasoning. On the basis of establishing the evaluation index system, cloud digital features were used to describe the safety risk level, probability and loss degree, and to implement the two-dimensional cloud reasoning of the third layer evaluation index safety level. And the multidimensional cloud reasoning of the second and the first evaluation index safety levels was realized by ideology of fuzzy reasoning after establishing a reasoning rules base. The results show that the safety evaluation method based on cloud reasoning is helpful in realizing expression of the uncertainty problem,and that the final result of the safety risk hierarchy is in accordance with the actual situation.

G-INFNs-MCGDM method for evaluating safety input in coal enterprises and its application

ZHAO Baofu , ZHANG Chao , JIA Baoshan , ZHAI Cuixia , REN Haizhi , GUO Jianwei

2017, 27(2): 139-144. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.025

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For the sake of improving utilization efficiency of resources and ensuring the safety in production, G-INFNs-MCGDM method was established for determining the reasonable structure of safety inputs by combining the G theory,INFNs and MCGDM. Firstly, the grey incidence weights, auxiliary weights and multi-dimensional compound weights were calculated by using the Relational INFNs Bonferroni Hybrid Geometric (R-INFNBHG) operator. Secondly,the multi-dimensional compound weights and average weights of expert evaluation were used to calculate the optimal multi-dimensional compound weights.The weights of factors in overall evaluation were calculated by optimal multi-dimensional evaluation weights of each hierarchy, and the safety inputs were sorted and analyzed by using weights of factors in overall evaluation. The method was applied to a certain coal enterprise in China.The results show that the coal enterprise should pay attention to safety inputs efficiency,that both industrial hygiene input and education input have an important effect on the overall safety input,and that the G-INFNs-MCGDM can orchestrate grey incidence weights and auxiliary weights and coordinate the multi-dimensional compound weights and average weights of expert evaluation, so it helps to optimize the structure of safety inputs.

FMEA based assessment of risk that metro train stops abnormally

ZHU Jianghong , LI Guofang , WANG Rui , LI Yanlai

2017, 27(2): 145-150. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.026

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There are presently two problems in the safety risk assessment of subway trains operation systems, which are less consideration of the expert behavior preference and understanding partially the weights of risk factors.Secondly a method of risk assessment based on both PT and FMEA was worked out,consisting of four steps.The ranges of risk factor weights were determined by the expert team based on experience and historical data. A model was built by using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution for the risk factors weight optimization. Thirdly, the evaluation matrix was transformed into the prospect value matrix by the prospect theory. Lastly, the PROMETHEE was used to sort the failure mode risks. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method were verified by the case of assessment of risk that a metro train stops abnormally in a certain city. The results show that the top three of the non normal stopping modes of the metro train are the emergency, foreign body intrusion, people's interference, which conforms with the reality.

Research on risk acceptance criteria for construction of HLW geological disposal URL

TONG Yue , HUANG Hongwei , ZHANG Dongming , CHEN Liang , LI Yanjie , ZHANG Kairui

2017, 27(2): 151-156. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.027

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Risk acceptance criteria is the basis of risk management and decision making. However, the existing risk specifications and standards of China can't satisfy the construction of URL. The paper was aimed at establishing acceptance criteria for the construction phase of URL.Firstly, the experience and method of the existing risk acceptance criteria were considered. Then a guestionnaire survey was carried out into experts,belonging to the owners,universities, design, consulting and insurance units on the feature values of acceptance criteria. To improve the reliability, the quartile method was used to check the abnormal value of the survey data. At the same time, the confidence index, which reflects the confidence of judgment, was applied to calculating the weights of experts with the basic information on experts. Lastly, based on ALARP principle, the risk acceptance criteria were established. The tolerable and acceptable standards of the individual risk and social impact risk were given . The criteria can be quantized continuously and can satify the risk management during the construction phase of URL.

Research on vertical data format based method for enterprise hidden trouble early warning

WANG Xinhao , QIN Xuhua , LUO Yun

2017, 27(2): 157-162. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.028

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A large number of accidents data have been accumulated as a result of the daily safety checks and hidden troubles investigation. In order to exploit the potential value of the data,achieve the early warning task,vertical data format mining algorithm was applied to mining association rules in the data on high dimensional hidden troubles ,and Kulczynski metric and Imbalance Ratio(IR)were used to reduce the effects of frequency difference of hidden danger on the rules. On this basis, an association rules based model was designed for hidden troubles early warning assessment, and the early warning information was visulized. Finally, a complete enterprise hidden troubles warning process was formed. 53 029 pieces of data on hidden troubles in 130 mechanical manufacturing enterprises in 2013 were taken as an example to verify the feasibility.The results show that the accuracy of the method is 80.62%.

Programming of contingency route based on air traffic flow time series and hierarchical clustering

YANG Yue , HU Bin , ZHAO Lu

2017, 27(2): 163-168. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.029

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Contingency route is an important means of ensuring a certain amount of aircraft keep flying in the airspace of air traffic control zeros where the ground control units totally lose their service competence. A programming method of contingency route was developed in this paper on the basis of similar traffic flow pattern by analyzing the characteristic of traffic flow time series in busy waypoints. Furthermore, a hierarchical clustering method based on similarity measurement of Euclidean distance was used to analyze time series of different points in generalized airway networks according to the actual flight operating data in Beijing Area Control Center. Contingency routes were programmed for a certain controlled airspace in Beijing by selecting different distance threshold values combined with some composite factors such as route connection type and conflict points. With this method, a minority of aircraft can keep flying safety in the airspace of air traffic control zeros, and the working pressure of the ground control units can be reduced.

Research on location model of emergency supplies repository under demand uncertainty

ZHANG Xin , GAO Shuchun

2017, 27(2): 169-175. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.030

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The paper was aimed at solving the problem about locating emergency supplies repositories under uncertain demand condition. The uncertain demands were predicted by using the interval grey number method based on connection number. Then an emergency supplies repository locating model was built, in which multi-objective optimization was considered for the shortest response time, maximum coverage, and minimum cost.The model was solved by the improved NSGA-II method to find the Pareto optimal solutions. The result shows that by using the model, an optimal solution set can be selected from many candidate inventories.

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