Characteristics of urban public safety risk and its enlightenment for risk management

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.0627

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to establish a scientific, accurate and normative urban safety risk management system, this paper makes some proposals based on the characteristics of urban safety risk. First, the urban safety risk was classified into four types according to the causal chain model which was established based on the definition and connotation of risk. Then, the characteristics of these four types of risk were analyzed considering the relevant static and dynamic urban characteristics. Last, the general and specific urban safety risk management proposals were made considering the current practice. This research shows that the characteristics of urban safety risk include accumulation of conventional risk, emergency of emerging risk, intensification of complex risk, and frequent occurrence of extreme risk. Some measures should be implemented to enhance the urban safety risk management system. The general framework of urban safety risk management should be established, and the specific risk assessment process and risk treatment measures should be implemented. Further, they should be integrated into the regular emergency management system of a city.

Key words: urban safety risk, risk management, conventional risk, emerging risk, complex risk, extreme risk

CLC Number:

X915.2安全社会学

ZHANG Chao, WENG Wenguo, CHEN Yong, DAI Baoqian, QIN Tingxin. Characteristics of urban public safety risk and its enlightenment for risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(1): 223-230.

Figures/Tables 2

References 49

[1]	国务院办公厅. 突发事件应急预案管理办法[L]. 2013-10-25.
[2]	国务院. “十四五”国家应急体系规划[EB/OL]. (2021-12-30). http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-02/14/content_5673424.htm.
[3]	国务院安全生产委员会. 国家安全发展示范城市评价与管理办法[EB/OL]. (2019-11-08). http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2020/content_5488929.htm.
[4]	国务院安委会办公室. 国务院安委会办公室关于实施遏制重特大事故工作指南构建双重预防机制的意见[EB/OL]. (2016-10-09). http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/11/content_5117487.htm.
[5]	国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2022年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL]. (2023-02-28). http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-02/28/content_5743623.html.
[6]	成德宁. 大城市安全风险的性质、特征及治理思路[J]. 国家治理, 2021(18): 34-39.
[7]	吴晓根, 冯凌杰, 叶方琪, 等. 城市安全风险评估实践[J]. 科技创新与应用, 2019(21): 50-53.
[8]	张超, 徐凤娇, 王皖, 等. 城市安全风险评估标准中的关键问题研究[J]. 标准科学, 2021(7): 54-60.
	ZHANG Chao, XU Fengjiao, WANG Wan, et al. Research on the key problems in the standard for risk assessment of city public safety[J]. Standard Science, 2021(7): 54-60.
[9]	RENN O, GRAHAM P G. White paper on risk governance: towards and integrative approach[EB/OL]. [2023-08-01] International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-1-4020-6799-0_1.pdf.
[10]	朱志萍. 基于IRGC框架分析的城市安全风险一体化治理思路[J]. 中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版, 2019, 33(5): 142-148.
[11]	孙建平, 尹小贝, 李欢, 等. 超大城市风险治理[M]. 上海: 上海人民出版社, 2021:74-87.
[12]	孙建平, 李敏, 刘坚, 等. 城市风险管理学:城市运行安全的中国实践[M]. 上海: 同济大学出版社, 2021:46-51.
[13]	朱伟, 刘梦婷. 城市公共安全风险综合治理路径探析[J]. 社会治理, 2017(2): 53-60.
[14]	WANG Jiajun, HE Zhichao, WENG Wenguo. A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis[J]. Natural Hazards, 2020, 104(3): 2003-2026. doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04259-3
[15]	袁宏永, 苏国锋, 陈建国, 等. 突发事件及其链式效应理论研究与应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2016:67-148.
[16]	蔡玫, 王秋寒. Natech风险管理中的承灾体脆弱性评估方法综述[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 9-17. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.002
	CAI Mei, WANG Qiuhan. Review of hazard bearing bodies' vulnerability assessment methods in Natech risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(11): 9-17. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.002
[17]	巴锐, 张宇栋, 刘奕, 等. 城市复杂灾害“三层四域”情景分析方法及应用[J]. 清华大学学报:自然科学, 2022, 62(10): 1579-1590.
	BA Rui, ZHANG Yudong, LIU Yi, et al. "Three-layer and four-domain" scenario analysis method and its application to urban complex disasters[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology, 2022, 62(10): 1579-1590.
[18]	ZHANG Chao, WU Jiansong, HU Xiaofeng, et al. A probabilistic analysis model of oil pipeline accidents based on an integrated event-evolution-Bayesian (EEB) model[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2018, 117: 694-703. doi: 10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.017
[19]	ISO 31073-2022, Risk management: vocabulary[S].
[20]	丁辉. 新兴风险社会治理的思考[J]. 劳动保护, 2020(4): 13-15.
[21]	ISO/TS 31050-2023,Risk management:guidelines for managing emerging risk to enhance resilience[S].
[22]	2025年底前, 基本完成城市燃气管道等老化更新改造任务[EB/OL]. (2022-06-30). http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-06/30/content_5698493.htm.
[23]	国务院新闻办公室. 应急管理部举行1月例行新闻发布会[EB/OL]. (2022-01-20). http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gbwxwfbh/xwfbh/aqjgzj/Document/1719320/1719320.htm.
[24]	王轶宏, 翟越, 李艳, 等. 城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(2): 194-201. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.02.0285
	WANG Yihong, ZHAI Yue, LI Yan, et al. Risk assessment of vapor cloud explosion accident of urban gas pipe network under leakage condition[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(2): 194-201. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.02.0285
[25]	国务院新闻办就加快推进应急管理体系和能力现代化有关情况举行发布会[EB/OL]. (2021-11-09). http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-11/09/content_5649960.html.
[26]	提醒车主要注意了, 电动车这类行为,安徽、广东等多地已明确禁止[EB/OL]. [2022-08-06]. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HE33J7KM0534I21O.html.
[27]	CUTTER S L. Compound, cascading, or complex disasters: what's in a name?[J]. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 2018, 60(6): 16-25.
[28]	史培军, 吕丽莉, 汪明, 等. 灾害系统: 灾害群、灾害链、灾害遭遇[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(6): 1-12.
	SHI Peijun, LYU Lili, WANG Ming, et al. Disaster system: disaster cluster, disaster chain and disaster compound[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014, 23(6): 1-12.
[29]	SWUSTE P, VAN NUNEN K, RENIERS G, et al. Domino effects in chemical factories and clusters: an historical perspective and discussion[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2019, 124: 18-30. doi: 10.1016/j.psep.2019.01.015
[30]	WANG Jiajun, HE Zhichao, WENG Wenguo. A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis[J]. Natural Hazards, 2020, 104(3): 2003-2026. doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04259-3
[31]	国务院事故调查组. 山东省青岛市“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸特别重大事故调查报告[EB/OL]. [2014-01-10]. https://www.mem.gov.cn/gk/sgcc/tbzdsgdcbg/2013/201401/t20140110_245228.shtml.
[32]	HAIMES Y Y, LAMBERT J H. Introduction to the special issue on the risk of extreme and catastrophic events[J]. Risk Analysis, 2012, 32(11): 1821-1822. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01929.x pmid: 23163722
[33]	外滩陈毅广场拥挤踩踏事件调查报告全文公布[EB/OL]. [2015-01-21]. http://edu.people.com.cn/n/2015/0121/c367001-26424433.html.
[34]	国务院事故调查组. 广东深圳光明新区渣土受纳场“12·20”特别重大滑坡事故调查报告[EB/OL]. [2016-07-15]. http://yjgl.gd.gov.cn/attachment/0/366/366949/2511532.pdf?ref=spec&eqid=dd9f76e800082839000000026489c0e5.
[35]	国务院事故调查组. 江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3·21”特别重大爆炸事故调查报告[EB/OL].[2021-11-20]. http://jtt.hunan.gov.cn/jtt/jjzdgz/aqsc/hmd/202010/13937650/files/0298aa057aaf4fff86d47cf2f890a070.pdf.
[36]	湖北省应急管理厅. 湖北省十堰市张湾区艳湖社区集贸市场“6·13”重大燃气爆炸事故调查报告[EB/OL]. http://yjt.hubei.gov.cn/yjgl/aqsc/sgdc/202109/P020211002415958135749.pdf.
[37]	2008年中国雪灾[EB/OL].(2018-01-03). https://baike.baidu.com/item/2008%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%9B%AA%E7%81%BE/199062?fr=ge_ala.
[38]	国务院灾害调查组. 河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害调查报告[EB/OL]. (2022-01). http://www.xunxian.gov.cn/eportal/fileDir/xunxian/resource/cms/article/3656823/4038345/%E6%B2%B3%E5%8D%97%E9%83%91%E5%B7%9E%E2%80%9C7%C2%B720%E2%80%9D%E7%89%B9%E5%A4%A7%E6%9A%B4%E9%9B%A8%E7%81%BE%E5%AE%B3%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf.
[39]	ISO 31000-2018,Risk management:guidelines[S].
[40]	ISO 31010-2019,Risk management:risk assessment techniques[S].
[41]	GB/T 42768—2023,公共安全城市安全风险评估[S].
	GB/T 42768-2023, Public security: risk assessment for urban security[S].
[42]	习近平. 高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜为全面建设社会主义现代化国家而团结奋斗:在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL]. (2022-10-25). http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-10/25/content_5721685.htm.
[43]	国务院安委会办公室. 城市安全风险综合监测预警平台建设指南(试行)[EB/OL]. (2021-10-09). https://www.mem.gov.cn/gk/zfxxgkpt/fdzdgknr/202110/t20211009_399738.shtml.
[44]	付明, 谭琼, 袁宏永, 等. 城市生命线工程运行监测标准体系构建[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(1): 153-158. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.01.022
	FU Ming, TAN Qiong, YUAN Hongyong, et al. Development of urban lifeline monitoring standard system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(1): 153-158. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.01.022
[45]	KAIKKONEN L, PARVIAINEN T, RAHIKAINEN M, et al. Bayesian networks in environmental risk assessment: a review[J]. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 2021, 17(1): 62-78. doi: 10.1002/ieam.v17.1
[46]	PARVIAINEN T, GOERLANDT F, HELLE I, et al. Implementing Bayesian networks for ISO 31000:2018-based maritime oil spill risk management: state-of-art, implementation benefits and challenges, and future research directions[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021,278:DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111520.
[47]	刘奕, 钱静, 范维澄. 走向精准: 突发事件风险分析方法发展综述[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(9): 1-10. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2742
	LIU Yi, QIAN Jing, FAN Weicheng. Rise of precision: a review of emergency risk analysis methodology[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(9): 1-10. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2742
[48]	鲁金涛. 应急演练“情景-响应”模型的结构相似度构建方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(10): 182-188. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.025
	LU Jintao. Structural similarity construction method of "scenario-response" model for emergency drills[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(10): 182-188. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.025
[49]	ZHANG Y, WENG W G, HUANG Z L. A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018, 128: 197-207. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.001

风险类型	特征	不确定性主要来源
传统风险	累积	触发初始事件环节,系统安全可靠性随时间增加而递减,风险呈现累积效应
新兴风险	涌现	触发初始事件环节,风险源模糊性强,对风险源危害性认知不足
复杂风险	加剧	次生衍生事件阶段,初始事件具有事件链效应导致复杂的次生衍生过程
极端风险	频现	潜在事件后果环节,事件后果严重程度罕见,可能超出应对能力