Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to comprehensively assess the risk of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation, a systematic risk assessment method combining theoretical derivation and simulation experiments was proposed. Firstly, the urban air-ground traffic network structure was constructed. Considering the dynamics of UAVs and ground vehicles, as well as the traffic flow characteristics of the air-ground traffic network, theoretical derivation was used to determine the possible ground traffic risk interval. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to obtain the ground traffic risk value based on the statistical results of the test. Then, the theoretical analysis and simulation test analysis were combined to comprehensively evaluate the risk of UAVs falling to ground traffic. Finally, a simulation case study was carried out in Tianjin. The results show that the risk of UAVs falling on ground traffic is affected by several factors such as crash probability, ground traffic density, and the structure of the air road network. The statistical risk value of the simulation test is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the risk interval, which preliminarily verifies the reasonableness of the proposed method.

Key words: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) falls, ground traffic, risk assessment, risk interval, Monte Carlo simulation

CLC Number:

LI Hang, HAN Feng, HU Xiaobing. Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 157-164.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Table 1

Table 2

Risk assessment results (f=1/10 000)

时间段	仿真结果R_s/ 10^-4	理论分析结果
时间段	仿真结果R_s/ 10^-4	$R l$	$R m$ /10^-4	$R h$ /10^-3
8:00—9:00	4.50	0	11.30	17.30
9:00—10:00	1.42	0	9.78	15.00
10:00—11:00	2.33	0	3.25	5.40
11:00—12:00	2.67	0	8.27	12.60
12:00—13:00	5.56	0	8.26	12.50
13:00—14:00	1.50	0	3.27	5.21
14:00—15:00	0	0	3.54	5.36
15:00—16:00	0.61	0	3.51	5.42
16:00—17:00	1.22	0	3.28	5.15
17:00—18:00	1.33	0	13.60	20.60
18:00—19:00	4.25	0	13.60	20.70
19:00—20:00	6.11	0	3.29	5.18
加和	31.50	0	84.95	130.42

Table 2

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Fig.7

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