Operational resilience measurement and spatio-temporal evolution analysis of urban bus systems

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.1431

Abstract

Abstract:

To characterize the performance curve of urban bus systems under different rainfall intensities, a resilience measurement model for urban bus system operations was constructed. Taking the bus system in the main urban area of Yangzhou as a case study, the operational resilience of transit networks across different regions and individual routes were analyzed. Building upon aforementioned resilience measurement results, the operational status of bus stops under different resilience levels was further quantified. The spatio-temporal patterns of resilience evolution within the integrated "network-route-stop" hierarchy were elucidated. The results show that during rainfall events, urban bus systems exhibit varying performance disturbances across different regions. The variations in the absorption, recovery, and adaptation capacities of bus systems across different regions, significant spatial heterogeneity in resilience is observed, resulting in pronounced spatial heterogeneity in operational resilience. The combined effect of morning peak hours and extreme rain events has a notable impact on bus operational resilience. It is also found that the operational resilience of bus routes varies across different regions under rainfall events of varying intensity, and different levels of resilience lead to significant differences in the performance losses of bus stops. Notably, under low resilience conditions, the reliability of stops decreases (an increase in arrival intervals and a decrease in stop punctuality).

Key words: rainfall intensity, urban bus system, operational resilience measurement, system performance, spatio-temporal evolution

CLC Number:

X913.4安全系统工程

HUANG Xian, JI Tao, DENG Shejun, YU Shijun, ZHU Yunqiang, SHAO Jinliang. Operational resilience measurement and spatio-temporal evolution analysis of urban bus systems[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(10): 166-173.

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指标	地区
指标	荷花池	瘦西湖	京华城	万达广场
R	0.88	0.89	0.92	0.90
LR	1.65	1.57	1.18	1.37
DT	7	6	6	5
DPT	3	3	3	3
RPT	4	3	3	2
DPS	-0.067	-0.059	-0.068	-0.057
RPS	0.054	0.049	0.048	0.072

指标	地区
指标	荷花池	瘦西湖	京华城	万达广场
R	0.63	0.84	0.67	0.64
LR	5.40	2.23	4.71	5.11
DT	14	8	12	11
DPT	8	4	7	6
RPT	6	4	5	5
DPS	-0.051	-0.093	-0.135	-0.098
RPS	0.124	0.051	0.111	0.112

路段	天气
路段	无雨	暴雨	特大暴雨
京华城	0.91	0.86	0.67
瘦西湖	0.93	0.84	0.80
荷花池	0.93	0.80	0.58