Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.02.1813

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of fire, economy and environment, based on the data of fire, economy and environment in China from 2000 to 2019, a fire-economy-environment coupling coordination model was established to study the coupling development level of fire, economy and environment system. Combined with ESDA method, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and aggregation of each subsystem in 31 provinces were studied, and the spatial correlation analysis of fire, economy and environment was carried out based on Moran 'I test. The research shows that the comprehensive development of fire, economy and environment has been well coupled from 2000 to 2019. From the time dimension, the coupling degree and coordination degree showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2019. The coupling degree was affected by the fire comprehensive score, and the coordination degree was affected by the economic subsystem. From the spatial dimension, economic development is the main factor affecting the coupling coordination degree of 31 provinces. From the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling relationship, the provincial coupling degree is aggregated with time, and the coupling coordination degree is random in spatial aggregation. The different effects of fire, economy and environment on coupling coordination lead to different coordination types and spatial aggregation states.

Key words: fire-economy-environment system, coupling coordination degree, spatio-temporal evolution, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), entropy method

CLC Number:

XIANG Yue, LUO Xin, QIN Yi, QIAN Yinuo. Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(2): 103-109.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Tab.1

Tab.2

Index weight of fire-economy-environment system

火灾指标	权重 $a i$	经济指标	权重 $b j$	环境指标	权重 $c k$
火灾起数	0.266 4	人均 GDP/元	0.256 7	工业SO₂排放量万t	0.203 9
死亡人数	0.210 3	国内生产总值/ 亿元	0.241 4	工业废水总排放量/ 万t	0.187 9
受伤人数	0.202 4	城镇居民可支配收入/元	0.224 3	工业固体废物产量/ 万t	0.148 0
直接经济损失/ 万元	0.320 8	社会消费品零售总额/亿元	0.277 6	城镇建成区绿化覆盖率/%	0.154 5
—	—	生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	0.305 8	—	—

Tab.2

Fig.2

Fig.3

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耦合度阶段	D值		耦合协调度类型
衰退失调阶段	0≤D<0.4	0.0≤D<0.1	极度失调
		0.1≤D<0.2	严重失调
		0.2≤D<0.3	中度失调
		0.3≤D<0.4	轻度失调
过渡阶段	0.4≤D<0.6	0.4≤D<0.5	濒临失调
过渡阶段	0.4≤D<0.6	0.5≤D<0.6	勉强协调
耦合协调阶段	0.6≤D≤1	0.6≤D<0.7	初级协调
		0.7≤D<0.8	中级协调
		0.8≤D<0.9	良好协调
		0.9≤D≤1	优质协调