Spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle factors of urban disaster resilience in Zhongyuan urban agglomeration

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2072

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to enhance urban disaster resilience, this paper studied the urban disaster resilience of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration from a dynamic perspective. Firstly, the evaluation index system of urban disaster resilience was constructed from four aspects: infrastructure resilience, economic resilience, social resilience and ecological resilience. Secondly, the weight of each index was calculated by the entropy method, and the evaluation model was established by the comprehensive index method. Finally, ESDA and obstacle degree model were used to reveal the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics and obstacle factors of urban disaster resilience in Zhongyuan urban Agglomeration from 2003 to 2019. The results show that during the study period, the urban disaster resilience level of Zhongyuan urban Agglomeration shows a sustained growth trend, showing an obvious regional imbalance and uncoordinated phenomenon, which is mainly manifested in the spatial distribution pattern of high in the central region and low around. On the whole, urban disaster resilience shows a positive spatial correlation, and the spatial agglomeration mode is mainly low-low agglomeration and high-high agglomeration. The obstacle factors were mainly focused on economic and social aspects.

Key words: Zhongyuan urban agglomeration, urban disaster resilience, spatial-temporal evolution, obstacle factors, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA)

LI Mengjie, LIU Delin. Spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle factors of urban disaster resilience in Zhongyuan urban agglomeration[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(9): 144-151.

Figures/Tables 5

Tab.1

Evaluation index and weight of urban disaster resilience level in Zhongyuan urban a gglomeration

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标单位及性质	权重	指标含义
城市灾害韧性	经济韧性 (0.381 6)	人均国内生产总值X₁	元(+)	0.042	宏观经济基础
		人均固定资产投资总额X₂	元(+)	0.066 4	经济运行效率
		实际利用外资金额X₃	元(+)	0.094 3	外贸依存度
		第三产业所占比例X₄	%(+)	0.018 3	经济结构合理程度
		规模以上工业企业个数X₅	个(+)	0.047 4	经济发达程度
		城镇居民人均可支配收入X₆	元(+)	0.046 2	经济系统内在活力
		社会消费品零售总额X₇	亿元(+)	0.067	居民生活消费水平
	社会韧性 (0.327 4)	在岗职工平均工资X₈	元(+)	0.048 2	居民工资收入
		第三产业就业人员占比X₉	%(+)	0.025	城市就业结构
		城镇登记失业率X₁₀	%(-)	0.020 3	城市失业结构
		全市人均邮电业务收入X₁₁	%(+)	0.090 7	通讯系统完善程度
		人口密度X₁₂	人/km²(-)	0.0097	人口规模和集聚程度
		万人在校大学生数X₁₃	人(+)	0.078 1	教育水平和创新能力
		万人卫生技术人员数X₁₄	人(+)	0.028 2	人口健康保障能力
		万人拥有病床数X₁₅	张(+)	0.027 2	医疗卫生投入
	工程韧性 (0.228 1)	城市人均道路面积X₁₆	km²(+)	0.030 2	交通道路合理化程度
		公路货物周转量X₁₇	t(+)	0.086	物流发展程度
		建成区排水管道密度X₁₈	km(+)	0.018 7	工程设施保障能力
		公共供水生产综合能力X₁₉	10 000 m³/d(+)	0.0427	城市供水能力
		万人移动电话用户数 $X 2 0$	户(+)	0.039	网络普及程度
		燃气普及率 $X 2 1$	%(+)	0.011 5	燃气资源供给水平
	生态韧性 (0.062 9)	城市人均公园绿地面积 $X 2 2$	km²(+)	0.017 5	生态发展协调度
		建成区绿化覆盖率 $X 2 3$	%(+)	0.006 3	自我净化能力
		城镇生活污水处理率 $X 2 4$	%(+)	0.015 4	环境治理效应
		每平方公里二氧化硫年均排放量 $X 2 5$	t(-)	0.008 2	工业排放对生态的压力
		工业固体废弃物综合利用率 $X 2 6$	%(+)	0.015 5	生态资源再利用能力

Tab.1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.2

Tab.3

main obstacle factors obstacle degree of urban disaster resilience level index layer

年份	障碍因子排序及障碍度/%
年份	1	2	3	4	5	6
2003	X₃(12.66)	X₁₁ (10.28)	$X 1 3$ (10.03)	X₇ (8.74)	X₂(8.43)	X₁₇ (7.94)
2006	X₃ (13.91)	X₁₁ (10.11)	$X 1 3$ (10.04)	X₇ (8.98)	X₁₇ (7.74)	X₂(6.88)
2014	X₃ (14.92)	$X 1 3$ (11.49)	$X 7 ($ 10.26)	X₂(7.25)	X₁₁ (7.07)	$X 5 ($ 6.66)
2017	X₃ (13.19)	X₁₁ (10.51)	$X 1 3$ (10.12)	X₇ (9.05)	X₁₇ (6.89)	X₂(6.75)
2019	X₃ (12.63)	X₁₁ (11.06)	$X 1 3$ (10.07)	X₇ (9.07)	X₂(7.25)	X₁₇ (6.35)

Tab.3

References 16

[1]	周利敏, 原伟麒. 迈向韧性城市的灾害治理:基于多案例研究[J]. 经济社会体制比较, 2017(5):22-33.
	ZHOU Limin, YUAN Weiqi. Disaster management marching toward resilient city[J]. Comparison of Economic and Social Systems, 2017(5):22-33.
[2]	HOLLING C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Ecology & Systematics, 1973, 4(1):1-23.
[3]	CUTTER S L, BARNES L, BERRY M, et al. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2008, 18(4): 598-606. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.013
[4]	BRUNEAU M, REINHORN A. Exploring the concept of seismic resilience for acute care facilities[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2007, 23(1):41-62. doi: 10.1193/1.2431396
[5]	李亚, 翟国方. 我国城市灾害韧性评价及其提升策略研究[J]. 规划师, 2017, 33(8):5-11.
	LI Ya, ZHAI Guofang. China's urban disaster resilience evaluation and promotion[J]. Planner, 2017, 33 (8): 5-11.
[6]	许兆丰, 田杰芳, 张靖. 防灾视角下城市韧性评价体系及优化策略[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(3):1-7. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.001
	XU Zhaofeng, TIAN Jiefang, ZHANG Jing. Urban resilience evaluation system and optimization strategy of from perspective of disaster prevention[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29 (3): 1-7. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.001
[7]	陈长坤, 陈以琴, 施波, 等. 雨洪灾害情境下城市韧性评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(4):1-6. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.04.001
	CHEN Changkun, CHEN Yiqin, SHI Bo, et al. An model for evaluating urban resilience to rainstorm flood disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28 (4): 1-6. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.04.001
[8]	周雪, 左忠义, 程伟. 基于组合赋权云模型的铁路旅客运输安全评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(增1):158-164.
	ZHOU Xue, ZUO Zhongyi, CHENG Wei. Safety evaluation of railway passenger transportation based on combined weighting cloud model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30 (S1): 158-164. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.S1.028
[9]	张秀艳, 白雯, 郑雪. 我国区域经济韧性的关联识别与演化特征分析[J]. 吉林大学社会科学学报, 2021, 61(1):90-101,237.
	ZHANG Xiuyan, BAI Wen, ZHENG Xue. Resilience identification and evolution characteristics of regional economicin China[J]. Journal of Social Sciences of Jilin University, 2021, 61 (1): 90-101,237.
[10]	周宏浩, 陈晓红. 东北地区可持续生计安全时空分异格局及障碍因子诊断[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11):1864-1874. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.014
	ZHOU Honghao, CHEN Xiaohong. Spatio-temporal evolution of sustainable livelihood security and study of its obstacle indicators in northeast China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(11):1864-1874. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.014
[11]	曾繁华, 黄海. 高校创新产出及其驱动因子的空间分异:基于ESDA-GWR的实证[J]. 科技管理研究, 2021, 41(7):86-94.
	ZENG Fanhua, HUANG Hai. Spatial heterogeneity of University innovation output and its driving factors: an empirical study based on ESDA-GWR[J]. Research on Science and Technology Management, 2021, 41 (7): 86-94.
[12]	朱金鹤, 孙红雪. 中国三大城市群城市韧性时空演进与影响因素研究[J]. 软科学, 2020, 34(2):72-79.
	ZHU Jinhe, SUN Hongxue. Research on spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban resilience of China's three major metropolitan agglomerations[J]. Soft Science, 2020, 34 (2): 72-79.
[13]	陆欢, 戢晓峰, 陈方. 城镇化与物流业发展的时空耦合研究:以中国大陆31个省市区为例[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2018, 34(6):807-812.
	LU Huan, JI Xiaofeng, CHEN Fang. Research on coupling of time and space between urbanization and logistics development: a case study of 31 provinces in China[J]. Resource Development & Market, 2018, 34 (6): 807-812.
[14]	陈凌峰. 标准不确定度A类评定中极差法的深入讨论[J]. 计量学报, 2019, 40(2):347-352.
	CHEN Lingfeng. The further discussion of the range method in the type a evaluation of standard uncertainty[J]. Acta Metrologica Sinica, 2019, 40(2):347-352.
[15]	刘江艳, 曾忠平. 弹性城市评价指标体系构建及其实证研究[J]. 电子政务, 2014(3):82-88.
[16]	陈韶清, 夏安桃. 快速城镇化区域城市韧性时空演变及障碍因子诊断:以长江中游城市群为例[J]. 现代城市研究, 2020(1):37-44,103.
	CHEN Shaoqing, XIA Antao. Spatial-temporal evolution of urban resilience and diagnosis of obstacle indicators in rapidly urbanization regions: a case study of the urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2020 (1): 37-44, 103.

城市灾害韧性系统	2003年	2006年	2014年	2017年	2019年
经济韧性	0.177^**	0.202^**	0.126^*	0.155^*	0.14^*
社会韧性	0.236^**	0.108	0.071	0.079	0.022^*
生态韧性	0.199^*	0.344^**	0.368^**	0.276^**	0.349^**
工程韧性	0.168^*	0.204^*	-0.104	0.055	0.059
综合韧性	0.155^*	0.13^*	0.084	0.076	0.07^*