Temporal and spatial dynamics and influencing factors analysis of environmental risk factors in Yellow River basin

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.03.1420

Abstract

Abstract:

To advance environmental risk prevention and control in the Yellow River basin and achieve high-quality development, this study utilized air pollution, water pollution and carbon emissions to characterize environmental risk factors in this region. Firstly, the kernel density estimation method was employed to construct a kernel function, perform density smoothing, and analyze the spatial agglomeration patterns and evolutionary characteristics of environmental risk factors. Secondly, a spatial autoregressive model that accounts for spatial dependence was adopted to dissect the influences of multidimensional factors on environmental risk factors. The results indicate that air pollution, water pollution, and carbon emissions are primarily concentrated in the middle and downstream cities of Yellow River basin, delineating distinct regions for environmental risk prevention and control. Optimizing industrial structures and promoting green technological innovation in enterprises can reduce environmental risk factors. However, unreasonable energy conservation and environmental protection expenditures may lead to an increase in environmental risk factors. Furthermore, an inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between economic levels and population density and risk factors. From a long-term strategic perspective, regional collaborative governance and synergistic pollution reduction and carbon mitigation should be the strategic priorities. Strengthening cooperation among middle and downstream cities, optimizing industrial structures and increasing investment in industrial technological innovation are crucial steps towards achieving an economic development model transformation.

Key words: Yellow River basin, environmental risk factors, spatial-temporal evolution, influencing factors, air pollution, water pollution, carbon emission

CLC Number:

X915.5

XU Xiaomin, LI Wei, HUANG Shengzhong. Temporal and spatial dynamics and influencing factors analysis of environmental risk factors in Yellow River basin[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(3): 206-215.

Figures/Tables 4

Tab.1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.2

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总效应	lnPM_2.5	lnSO₂	lnISD	lnIW	lnCO₂
lnL	-0.153 7^** (-2.15)	0.299 7^*** (2.78)	0.034 5 (0.27)	-0.348 0^*** (-3.90)	0.092 1 (1.55)
lnL²	0.051 6^** (2.18)	-0.156 4^*** (-3.63)	-0.006 7 (-0.16)	0.055 7^** (2.33)	-0.022 6 (-1.18)
lnI	0.143 8^* (1.85)	-0.005 7 (-0.06)	-0.005 2 (-0.04)	0.071 0 (0.96)	0.111 1^* (1.79)
lnP	-1.052 1^*** (-2.65)	0.907 8^** (2.14)	0.632 6 (1.09)	0.638 0^* (1.95)	0.194 0 (0.75)
lnP²	0.055 9^*** (2.65)	-0.043 8^** (-1.96)	-0.029 7 (-0.96)	-0.032 9^* (-1.89)	-0.009 4 (-0.68)
lnT	-0.014 5 (-0.86)	-0.103 7^*** (-3.29)	-0.170 9^*** (-3.55)	-0.060 6^*** (-2.83)	-0.059 1^*** (-3.26)
lnH	-0.026 1 (-1.38)	-0.019 7 (-0.81)	-0.006 7 (-0.18)	0.059 7^*** (2.59)	0.005 5 (0.33)
空间自相关系数	0.314 1^** (2.04)	-0.966 5^*** (-2.80)	-0.615 9^** (-2.10)	-1.099 8^*** (-3.18)	-1.839 4^*** (-4.41)
残差方差	0.012 7^*** (21.30)	0.230 3^*** (21.12)	0.322 9^*** (21.25)	0.166 9^*** (21.09)	0.209 3^*** (20.71)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体/时间固定	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
样本容量	910	910	910	910	910