台风条件下电网设备灾害演化机制*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.025

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 179-184.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.025

台风条件下电网设备灾害演化机制^*

张津嘉

清华大学公共安全研究院,北京 100084

收稿日期:2021-08-24 修回日期:2021-10-12 出版日期:2021-11-28
作者简介:张津嘉 (1986—),男,河北青龙人,博士,在清华大学公共安全研究院博士后工作站主要从事城市公共安全与应急管理方面的研究。E-mail:hbzj276@163.com。
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(SGTYHT/17-JS-199);中国博士后科学基金资助(2020M680593)。

Evolution mechanism of disasters of power grid equipment under typhoon

ZHANG Jinjia

Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2021-08-24 Revised:2021-10-12 Published:2021-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决台风对电网设备破坏严重的问题,从灾害系统理论出发,界定台风电网设备灾害和要素,分析电网设备台风灾害的孕灾环境、致灾因子及承灾体的相互作用机制,揭示电网设备台风灾害的灾变路径及破坏模式,同时,集成决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)分析法和解释结构模型(ISM)分析法,构建电网设备台风灾害影响因素耦合层次递阶模型。结果表明:电网设备台风灾害的典型破坏模式为机械过载、风偏闪络、冲刷腐蚀、洪水淹没、雷击过电压,主要作用对象为变压器、导线、杆塔及绝缘子;电网设备台风灾害演化过程具有明显的链式结构和层级关系,呈现出自然灾害事件链触发电网技术事故的复合灾害模式。

关键词: 台风, 电网设备, 灾害演化机制, 破坏模式, 决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(DEMATEL-ISM)

Abstract: In order to solve the serious destruction to power grid equipment caused by typhoon, disasters of power grid equipment and its elements were defined based on disaster system theory, and interaction mechanism of disaster-forming environments, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing body was analyzed. On this basis, disaster process and failure mode were revealed, and a coupled hierarchy model of influence factors of typhoon disasters was established based on DEMATEL-ISM. The results show that typhoon disasters of power grid equipment mainly destroy the transformer, transmission line, tower and insulator by the way of mechanical overload, windage flashover, erosion corrosion and flood inundation, lightning overvoltage. And their evolution process features obvious disaster chain and hierarchy relationship, which reveals compound disaster mode from natural disasters to technology accidents of power grid.

Key words: typhoon, power grid equipment, evolution mechanism of disasters, failure mode, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory-interpretative structural modeling(DEMATEL-ISM)

中图分类号:

X934

张津嘉. 台风条件下电网设备灾害演化机制^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 179-184.

ZHANG Jinjia. Evolution mechanism of disasters of power grid equipment under typhoon[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(11): 179-184.

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台风条件下电网设备灾害演化机制^*

Evolution mechanism of disasters of power grid equipment under typhoon

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