泥石流冲击下立式储罐失效概率分析*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.11.010

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 55-60.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.11.010

泥石流冲击下立式储罐失效概率分析^*

陈国华教授, 曾涛, 杨运锋, 田震副教授

华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所,广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2017-08-05 修回日期:2017-09-30
作者简介:陈国华 (1967—),男,湖北天门人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事工业安全与风险评价技术及管理信息系统、过程装备安全可靠性及风险评价技术研究。E-mail:mmghchen@scut.edu.cn。曾涛 (1995—),男,江西丰城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全系统工程与风险评价及管理信息系统。E-mail:850179274@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801500)。

Analysis of failure probability of vertical tank under debris flow impact

CHEN Guohua, ZENG Tao, YANG Yunfeng, TIAN Zhen

Institute of Safety Science & Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510640, China

Received:2017-08-05 Revised:2017-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为评估泥石流引发的Natech事故风险,定量分析泥石流冲击对立式储罐的影响,首先建立泥石流作用下储罐的力学简化模型,将泥石流作用下储罐破坏模式分为弯曲破坏、罐体失稳、储罐浮离及储罐滑移;然后基于该分类,分别构建4组极限状态方程;其次基于贝叶斯网络和可靠性理论,建立储罐失效概率计算方法;最后,利用该方法分析计算某事故场景。结果表明:该事故场景下储罐失效概率为81.19%;在泥石流多发区,适当提高储罐充装率及降低大型储罐高径比可有效防控该类事故。

关键词: 泥石流冲击, 储罐失效, 破坏模式, 贝叶斯网络, 失效概率

Abstract: In order to assess the risk of Natech accident triggered by debris flow and quantitatively analyze the influence of debris flow impact on vertical storage tank, a simplified mechanical model was built for the tank under the action of debris flow. The failure modes were divided into four categories: bending failure, tank instability, tank floating and tank slipping. Based on this classification, four groups of limit state equations were constructed. On the basis of Bayesian network and the reliability theory, a calculation method of failure probability for tank was worked out. The method was used to analyze and calculate an accident scenario. The results show that the failure probability of the tank is 81.19%, and that increasing filling rate of tank and reducing the aspect ratio of large storage tanks can prevent the accident in areas prone to the debris flow.

Key words: debris flow impact, tank failure, failure mode, Bayesian network, failure probability

中图分类号:

X937

陈国华教授, 曾涛, 杨运锋, 田震副教授. 泥石流冲击下立式储罐失效概率分析^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(11): 55-60.

CHEN Guohua, ZENG Tao, YANG Yunfeng, TIAN Zhen. Analysis of failure probability of vertical tank under debris flow impact[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(11): 55-60.

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泥石流冲击下立式储罐失效概率分析^*

Analysis of failure probability of vertical tank under debris flow impact

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