基于动态贝叶斯网络的蒽醌法制备双氧水工艺风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.02.1066

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为降低因蒽醌法制备双氧水而引起的火灾爆炸风险,从蒽醌法制备双氧水工艺中选取危险性较大的萃取净化工序展开风险评估。首先,分析该工序的危险源,采用Freefta软件建立事故树模型,在该模型的基础上使用GeNIe软件绘制事故树转换的动态贝叶斯网络模型;然后,运用专家打分法和模糊分析法计算模型中基本事件的先验概率,运用GeNIe软件在设定的前置条件下计算模型中基本事件的后验概率;最后,比较先验、后验概率之间的变化幅度,确定重要基本事件,揭示引起火灾爆炸的危险源并制定应急处置技术。结果表明:降解物与杂质造成污染、工艺副反应产生并增多、催化剂失效以及双氧水自身化学性质活跃4种重要危险源对萃取净化工序火灾爆炸影响最大;从阻止火灾蔓延与液体疏通的角度针对重要危险源制定应急处置技术效果较好。

关键词: 蒽醌法, 制备工艺, 双氧水, 动态贝叶斯网络, 风险评估, 事故树, 应急处置技术

Abstract:

In order to reduce the risk of fire and explosion caused by the anthraquinone process for preparing hydrogen peroxide, a risk assessment was carried out for the extraction and purification process, which is a more hazardous process in the preparation of hydrogen peroxide by anthraquinone process. Firstly, hazard sources of this process were analysed and a fault tree model was established through Freefta software. On the basis of this fault tree model, a dynamic Bayesian network model was drawn using GeNIe software. Secondly, expert scoring method and fuzzy analysis method were used to calculate prior probabilities of basic events in the model, and GeNIe software was used to calculate posterior probabilities of basic events in the model under the set preconditions. Eventually, by comparing change range between prior and posterior probabilities, important basic events were determined, hazard sources causing fire and explosion were revealed, and emergency response technologies were proposed. The results show that four major hazard sources, including pollution caused by degradation products and impurities, generation and increase of side reactions in process, catalyst failure and active chemical properties of hydrogen peroxide, have great impact on fire and explosion during extraction and purification process. It is more effective to develop emergency response technologies for important hazard sources from the perspective of preventing fire spread and liquid evacuation.

Key words: anthraquinone process, preparation process, hydrogen peroxide, dynamic Bayesian network, risk assessment, fault tree, emergency response technology

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

张术琳, 王澜凝, 鲁义. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的蒽醌法制备双氧水工艺风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(2): 110-116.

ZHANG Shulin, WANG Lanning, LU Yi. Risk assessment of hydrogen peroxide production technology by using anthraquinone process based on dynamic Bayesian network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(2): 110-116.

图/表 8

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

无维修状态下的转移概率[16]

$t + τ$	N	DS1	DS2	F
N	$e x p [- (λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5) τ]$	0	0	0
DS1	$λ 4 λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5 {1 - e x p [- (λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5) τ]}$	$e x p [- (λ 2 + λ 6) τ]$	0	0
DS2	$λ 5 λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5 {1 - e x p [- (λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5) τ]}$	$λ 6 λ 2 + λ 6 {1 - e x p [- (λ 2 + λ 6) τ]}$	$e x p (- λ 3 τ)$	0
F	$λ 1 λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5 {1 - e x p [- (λ 1 + λ 4 + λ 5) τ]}$	$λ 2 λ 2 + λ 6 {1 - e x p [- (λ 2 + λ 6) τ]}$	$1 - e x p (- λ 3 τ)$	1

表3

表4

动节点转移概率

X	$λ 1$	$λ 2$	$λ 3$	$λ 4$	$λ 5$	$λ 6$	X	$λ 1$	$λ 2$	$λ 3$	$λ 4$	$λ 5$	$λ 6$
X4	0.09	0.57	0.48	0.27	0.53	0.28	X20	0.10	0.62	0.57	0.28	0.56	0.30
X8	0.01	0.66	0.73	0.29	0.59	0.32	X32	0.10	0.63	0.60	0.29	0.57	0.31
X12	0.10	0.67	0.89	0.30	0.60	0.33	X33	0.10	0.63	0.62	0.29	0.58	0.31
X13	0.01	0.60	0.69	0.29	0.59	0.32	X34	0.09	0.59	0.51	0.27	0.54	0.29
X14	0.08	0.53	0.40	0.25	0.49	0.26	X35	0.10	0.67	0.86	0.30	0.59	0.33
X18	0.01	0.66	0.78	0.30	0.60	0.33

表4

图3

表5

参考文献 19

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信息	E₁	E₂	E₃	E₄	E₅
学历	博士	博士	硕士	硕士	博士
工龄	4年	10年	4年	3年	6年
职位	讲师	副教授	讲师	讲师	副教授
信息	E₆	E₇	E₈	E₉	E₁₀
学历	博士	博士	博士	博士	博士
工龄	3年	4年	3年	15年	8年
职位	讲师	讲师	讲师	教授	副教授

X	E₁	E₂	E₃	E₄	E₅	E₆	E₇	E₈	E₉	E₁₀	Y
X1	L	L	L	VL	L	VL	L	L	L	L	7.80×10^-3
X2	L	VL	L	L	L	VL	L	L	L	VL	7.20×10^-3
X3	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	5.90×10^-3
X4	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	6.01×10^-3
X5	L	M	M	M	M	L	M	M	M	M	1.36×10^-2
X6	VL	L	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	L	L	7.20×10^-3
X7	M	VH	H	H	H	VH	VH	H	M	H	3.40×10^-2
X8	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	6.10×10^-3
X9	M	M	H	H	M	H	H	M	H	H	2.35×10^-2
X10	L	VL	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	6.30×10^-3
X11	L	M	L	L	L	M	L	VL	L	L	8.90×10^-3
X12	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	6.40×10^-3
X13	VL	VL	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	6.10×10^-3
X14	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	5.80×10^-3
X15	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	6.10×10^-3
X16	M	L	L	L	L	M	L	L	M	L	9.60×10^-3
X17	L	L	M	M	L	M	L	L	L	H	1.04×10^-2
X18	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	L	6.30×10^-3
X19	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	L	VL	6.70×10^-3
X20	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	5.90×10^-3
X21	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	6.23×10^-3
X22	L	L	L	M	L	L	L	L	L	M	9.02×10^-3
X23	L	VL	L	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	6.40×10^-3
X24	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	L	VL	6.60×10^-3
X25	VL	L	L	L	VL	L	VL	L	L	L	7.40×10^-3
X26	L	L	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	6.30×10^-3
X27	M	M	H	H	M	M	H	M	M	H	1.90×10^-2
X28	M	M	M	M	M	H	M	H	H	M	1.87×10^-2
X29	L	L	L	M	L	M	M	L	M	L	1.00×10^-2
X30	VL	L	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	L	6.90×10^-3
X31	VL	L	L	L	L	VL	L	L	L	L	7.70×10^-3
X32	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	5.80×10^-3
X33	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	5.80×10^-3
X34	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	5.80×10^-3
X35	L	VL	L	L	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	6.30×10^-3
X36	M	M	H	H	H	M	M	M	H	M	2.05×10^-2
X37	L	VL	L	VL	L	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	6.40×10^-3
X38	VL	L	VL	VL	VL	VL	VL	L	VL	VL	6.20×10^-3

X	G	Z	X	G	Z	X	G	Z	X	G	Z
X1	1.09×10^-2	0.40	X11	2.30×10^-2	1.58	X21	9.70×10^-3	0.56	X31	1.40×10^-2	0.81
X2	1.03×10^-2	0.44	X12	1.03×10^-2	0.62	X22	2.92×10^-2	2.25	X32	6.10×10^-3	0.06
X3	7.20×10^-3	0.22	X13	1.10×10^-2	0.80	X23	1.18×10^-2	0.84	X33	6.10×10^-3	0.06
X4	7.16×10^-3	0.19	X14	9.61×10^-3	0.67	X24	1.43×10^-2	1.17	X34	6.10×10^-3	0.06
X5	1.57×10^-2	0.15	X15	8.85×10^-3	0.46	X25	2.18×10^-2	1.95	X35	1.22×10^-2	0.94
X6	2.01×10^-2	1.80	X16	2.48×10^-2	1.57	X26	1.50×10^-2	1.37	X36	7.32×10^-2	2.57
X7	8.10×10^-2	1.40	X17	2.67×10^-2	1.57	X27	5.89×10^-2	2.11	X37	1.52×10^-2	1.36
X8	7.90×10^-3	0.29	X18	1.32×10^-2	1.11	X28	6.01×10^-2	2.21	X38	1.33×10^-2	1.15
X9	7.09×10^-2	2.02	X19	1.42×10^-2	1.11	X29	3.96×10^-2	2.96
X10	1.67×10^-2	1.67	X20	1.03×10^-2	0.76	X30	1.52×10^-2	1.21