腐蚀管道寿命可靠性的步降应力加速试验研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.011

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 59-64.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.011

腐蚀管道寿命可靠性的步降应力加速试验研究

骆正山教授, 毕傲睿

西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安 710055

收稿日期:2016-09-18 修回日期:2016-11-27 发布日期:2020-11-23
作者简介:骆正山 (1969—),男,陕西汉中人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事管理科学与工程、信息管理与信息系统、油气管道风险评估等学科领域的教学与科研工作。E-mail:luozhengshan@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(61271278);陕西省重点学科建设专项资金资助(E08001);陕西省教育厅自然专项基金资助(16JK1465)。

Research on reliability of corroded pipelines based on step-down-stress accelerated life testing

LUO Zhengshan, BI Aorui

School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi'an Shaanxi 710055, China

Received:2016-09-18 Revised:2016-11-27 Published:2020-11-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为保障油气管道安全运营,需研究腐蚀管道寿命的可靠性。首先基于管道失效机理,采用步降应力加速寿命试验(SDSALT)方法,获得不同温度下腐蚀率样本;其次利用加速因子和逆幂律加速方程建立数据折算模型,将腐蚀率样本转换为应力作用失效时间并截尾抽样后作为输入,求得含未知参数的准样本;然后通过准样本估计Weibull分布的3个参数,进而得到以温度和时间为自变量的管道可靠性函数;最后以H₂S/CO₂环境中运营的N80管道为例,验证所建腐蚀管道寿命预测方法的可靠性。结果表明,该方法大幅缩短试验时间,对管道寿命预测准确,并分析出管道可靠性的降低速度随温度和时间的增加先增大后减小,可应用于管道的适用性评价。

关键词: 可靠性分析, 步降应力加速寿命试验(SDSALT), 加速因子, 逆幂律方程, Weibull分布

Abstract: In order to ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines, the reliability of corrosion pipelines' life was studied. Firstly, based on the failure mechanism of the pipelines, corrosion rate sample data in different temperature environments were obtained by using the step-down-stress accelerated life testing method. Secondly, a data conversion model was built by using the acceleration factor and inverse power law equation. The corrosion rate data were converted into failure time data and truncated as the input of the model. Then quasi-samples with unknown parameters were obtained. Thirdly, three parameters of Weibull distribution were estimated by means of those samples, and the reliability function of pipelines was obtained with temperature and time as the independent variables. Finally, pipelines , which were made of N80 steel and operated in H₂S/CO₂ system were taken as examples to prove the reliability of the method. The results show that by using the method ,the test time can be shorten greatly, and the pipelines’ life can be predicted accurately.

Key words: reliability analysis, step-down-stress accelerated life testing (SDS-ALT), acceleration factor, inverse power law equation, Weibull distribution

中图分类号:

X937

骆正山, 毕傲睿. 腐蚀管道寿命可靠性的步降应力加速试验研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(1): 59-64.

LUO Zhengshan, BI Aorui. Research on reliability of corroded pipelines based on step-down-stress accelerated life testing[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(1): 59-64.

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腐蚀管道寿命可靠性的步降应力加速试验研究

Research on reliability of corroded pipelines based on step-down-stress accelerated life testing

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