空域规划中碰撞风险模型研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.11.012

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 67-72.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.11.012

空域规划中碰撞风险模型研究

曲玉玲^1,2 讲师, 霍志勤³ 高级工程师, 李翀⁴, 朱新平⁵ 副教授, 陈彦丽², 曲艳伟²

1 哈尔滨商业大学基础科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150028
2 哈尔滨商业大学工商管理博士后流动站,黑龙江哈尔滨 150028
3 中国民航科学技术研究院,北京 100028
4 福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350116
5 中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉 618307

收稿日期:2017-07-13 修回日期:2017-09-23
作者简介:曲玉玲 (1979—),女,黑龙江哈尔滨人,博士,讲师,主要从事空中交通管理、空域规划、空域安全风险分析等方面的研究。E-mail:quyuling2004@sina.com。
基金资助:
黑龙江省教育厅科技项目(12541190);国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合项目资助(U1733203);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC630060);黑龙江省哲学社会科学项目(16JYE01)。

Research on model for collision risk in process of airspace planning

QU Yuling^1,2, HUO Zhiqin³, LI Chong⁴, ZHU Xinping⁵, CHEN Yanli², QU Yanwei²

1 College of Foundation Science, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin Heilongjiang 150028, China
2 Business Administration Post Doctoral Mobile Station, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin Heilongjiang 150028, China
3 China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China
4 School of Economics & Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou Fujian 350116, China
5 College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China

Received:2017-07-13 Revised:2017-09-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为找到可操作的空域规划碰撞风险计算方法,基于空域规划参数,改进原有模型,建立航段上每飞行小时飞机的碰撞风险模型。首先,分析空域规划过程中终端区空域和航路巡航阶段航迹夹角0～180°情况下的碰撞风险;然后,将碰撞风险表示为来源于一条航段上飞机的碰撞风险和来源于其他多条航段上飞机的碰撞风险之和,建立碰撞风险模型;最后,将终端区空域规划中的相关参数值输入到该模型,计算2种方案的碰撞风险,并分析碰撞风险随参数的变化趋势。研究结果表明:在已给定其他参数值的条件下,碰撞风险随所需导航性能(RNP)数值、航段起始点高度以及航段起始点的纵向标称距离的增加(垂直标称距离减少)而增加,随着航迹夹角和飞行梯度的增加而减小。因此,可利用该模型计算并分析不同方案的碰撞风险。

关键词: 空中交通运输, 碰撞风险模型, 空域规划, 空域安全, 规划参数

Abstract: To provide an operational collision risk calculation method to be used in the process of airspace planning, the collision risk per flight hour on flight segment was researched. The existed models were improved based on airspace planning parameters. Firstly, collision risk was analyzed when the angle between two flight segments changes from zero degree to 180 degrees in terminal area airspace and on the air-ways. Secondly, the collision risk on flight segment was expressed by the sum of the collision risk stemming from this flight segment, the other risk stemming from other flight segments,and a collision risk model was built. Finally, when the values of the parameters related to terminal area airspace planning were input into the model, collision risks of two situations were calculated, and changing trends of collision risk with parameters were analyzed. The results show that when other parameter values are given, the collision risk will increase with the increasing Required Navigation Performance value, altitude (decreasing nominal vertical distance) at different initial points of flight segment and nominal longitudinal distance (decreasing nominal vertical distance) at initial points respectively, and the collision risk will decrease with increasing angle between tracks and flight gradient respectively. In conclusion, by using the model the collision risks between aircraft for different airspace planning programs can be calculated and analyzed.

Key words: air traffic transportation, collision risk model, airspace planning, airspace safety, planning parameters

中图分类号:

X913.4

曲玉玲讲师, 霍志勤高级工程师, 李翀, 朱新平副教授, 陈彦丽, 曲艳伟. 空域规划中碰撞风险模型研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(11): 67-72.

QU Yuling, HUO Zhiqin, LI Chong, ZHU Xinping, CHEN Yanli, QU Yanwei. Research on model for collision risk in process of airspace planning[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(11): 67-72.

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空域规划中碰撞风险模型研究

Research on model for collision risk in process of airspace planning

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