考虑异质性的翻车事故伤害建模

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.09.003

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9): 13-18.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.09.003

考虑异质性的翻车事故伤害建模

温惠英教授, 汤左淦, 卢德佑

华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2018-06-25 修回日期:2018-08-07 出版日期:2018-09-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
作者简介:温惠英(1965—),女,江西于都人,博士,教授,主要从事交通规划、物流系统优化和交通安全等方面的研究。E-mail:hywen@scut.edu.cn。汤左淦(1994—),男,江西赣州人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为交通规划和交通安全。E-mail:zuogantang@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51378222,51578247)。

Modeling severity of rollover accidents accounting for heterogeneity

WEN Huiying, TANG Zuogan, LU Deyou

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510640, China

Received:2018-06-25 Revised:2018-08-07 Online:2018-09-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入分析影响翻车事故伤害程度的各项因素及其对不同受伤等级事故的影响,根据人、车、路、环境及事故5方面的安全因素,构建考虑异质性的翻车事故伤害混合logit模型;采用蒙特卡罗方法估计模型参数,并计算相应显著变量的弹性;通过显著性水平为5%的假设检验,从22个备选变量中确定混合logit模型的输入自变量。结果表明:驾驶员性别、年龄、安全带使用、安全气囊展开、甩出车外、酒驾、毒驾、偏离车道行驶、疲劳驾驶、采取错误避让措施、车辆类型、车辆行驶意图、路段类型、限速值、事故发生地、事故发生日期、不良天气、光线及路面条件与翻车事故伤害程度显著相关;年轻驾驶员与男性驾驶员群体对事故伤害程度的影响具有个体差异性。

关键词: 翻车事故, 伤害程度, 混合logit模型, 异质性, 蒙特卡罗方法

Abstract: In order to deeply analyze the risk factors and their heterogenous impacts on severity of rollover accidents, a mixed logit model was developed based on 5 aspects of safety factors being human, vehicles, roads, environment and accidents. Model parameters were estimated by using the Monte Carlo method and elasticity values of the statistically significant variables were calculated. The model inputs were decided from 22 independent variables with statistical hypothesis testing of 5% significance level. The statistical results indicate that the severity is correlated with driver's gender, age, seatbelt usage, airbag deployment, ejection, alcohol use, drug use, risk driving behaviors, vehicle type, left-turning action, roadway section type, speed limit, accident location, accident date, adverse weather condition, light condition, and pavement condition, and that there is heterogeneity in the influencies of young and male drivers on the severity.

Key words: rollover accidents, injury severity, mixed logit model, heterogeneity, Monte Carlo method

中图分类号:

X913.4

温惠英, 汤左淦, 卢德佑. 考虑异质性的翻车事故伤害建模[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(9): 13-18.

WEN Huiying, TANG Zuogan, LU Deyou. Modeling severity of rollover accidents accounting for heterogeneity[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(9): 13-18.

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考虑异质性的翻车事故伤害建模

Modeling severity of rollover accidents accounting for heterogeneity

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