中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 143-150.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.08.023

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国企业参与“一带一路”建设的境外安全风险评价

刘莉君 副教授   

  1. 湖南科技大学 商学院,湖南 湘潭 411201
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-06 修回日期:2019-07-09 发布日期:2020-10-21
  • 作者简介:刘莉君 (1977—),女,湖南茶陵人,副教授,硕士生导师,应用经济学在站博士后,主要从事产业转移、区域经济发展、风险管理等方面的研究。E-mail:llj712@sina.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金一般项目资助(18BLJ114);国家自科基金面上项目资助(51774135);中国博士后科学基金第61批面上项目资助(2017M612556)。

Overseas safety risk assessment of Chinese enterprises' participating in construction of “One Belt One Road”

LIU Lijun   

  1. School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan Hunan 411201, China
  • Received:2019-05-06 Revised:2019-07-09 Published:2020-10-21

摘要: 为了有效防范与降低中国企业参与“一带一路”建设的境外风险损失,从政治、经济、社会3个风险维度构建境外安全风险评价指标体系,以30个“一带一路”沿线国家为例,运用主成分分析和客观赋权方法,识别并评价“一带一路”沿线国家的境外安全风险。研究表明:中国企业参与“一带一路”建设的境外安全风险基本处于中等偏低的状态。其中,新加坡和捷克2国属于低风险国;波兰、马来西亚、以色列等18个国家属于偏低风险国;白俄罗斯、菲律宾、吉尔吉斯斯坦等8个国家是中等风险国;乌克兰和伊拉克2国属于偏高风险国。从经济发展水平来看,发达经济体普遍呈现较低的风险等级;从投资区域来说,东南亚国家普遍适宜投资,中亚5国中哈萨克斯坦最适宜投资;从风险因素来讲,战争、债务水平、与华关系等是影响风险水平的重要因素。

关键词: 中国企业, 一带一路, 境外安全风险, 政治风险, 经济风险, 社会风险

Abstract: In order to effectively prevent and reduce the risk loss of Chinese enterprises' participating in construction of one belt one road, overseas safety risk evaluation index system from three dimensions of politics, economy and society was built. Thirty countries along "One Belt One Road" were taken as examples, and principal component method and objective weighting method were used to identify and evaluate overseas safety risk. The results show that overseas safety risk of Chinese enterprises' participating in construction of "One Belt One Road" is basically in a medium and low level. Among them, Singapore and Czech Republic belong to low-risk countries. Other 18 countries including Poland, Malaysia and Israel are in a relatively low-risk level. Eight countries including Belarus, Philippines and Kyrgyzstan belong to medium-risk ones. Ukraine and Iraq are in a relatively high-risk state. From the perspective of economic development level, developed economies generally present a lower risk level. From the perspective of investment region, Southeast Asian countries are generally suitable for investment and Kazakhstan is most suitable for investment in Central Asia. In terms of risk factors, war, debt level and relations with China are important factors affecting the risk level.

Key words: Chinese enterprises, One Belt One Road, overseas safety risk, political risk, economic risk, social risk

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