油气输送动设备实时定量风险评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.017

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 106-112.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.017

油气输送动设备实时定量风险评估模型

邱泽阳^1,2, 梁伟^**1 教授, 王雪³, 林扬¹, 张萌¹

1.中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院,北京 102249;
2.中海油能源发展股份有限公司北京安全环保工程技术研究院,北京 102209;
3.中国建材检验认证集团股份有限公司,北京 100024

收稿日期:2019-11-18 修回日期:2020-01-07 出版日期:2020-02-28 发布日期:2021-01-25
通讯作者: **梁伟(1978—),男,陕西榆林人,博士,教授,主要从事安全检测与监控、石油石化安全技术、机械设备状态监测与故障诊断等方面的工作。E-mail:tongxun_1978@126.com。
作者简介:邱泽阳(1991—),男,吉林大安人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为石油石化安全技术。E-mail:qzywx4410@163.com。
基金资助:
中石化综合科研项目(35150573-16-ZC0607-0001)。

Real-time quantitative risk assessment model of oil and gas transmission rotating equipment

QIU Zeyang^1,2, LIANG Wei¹, WANG Xue³, LIN Yang¹, ZHANG Meng¹

1. College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China;
2. CNOOC Beijing Research Institute of Engineering and Technology for Safety and Environmental Protection, Beijing 102209, China;
3. China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100024, China

Received:2019-11-18 Revised:2020-01-07 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2021-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为准确评价油气输送动设备运行状态,及时发现设备故障,避免由安全问题带来的经济损失,构建一种基于数据挖掘的油气输送动设备实时定量风险评估模型。运用危险与可操作性分析(HAZOP)和层次分析法(AHP),结合现场监测参数构建设备风险评估指标;针对传统偏离度线性计算方法不适用表征设备运行指标偏离程度的问题,运用现场监测数据挖掘的方法建立指标偏离度计算模型,并将该模型应用于现场压缩机组风险评估。结果表明:压缩机组整体偏离度为0.141 3,运行情况良好;其中干气密封过滤器差压的偏离度为0.472 6,应及时检查,分析结果与机组运行情况相符。

关键词: 油气输送动设备, 数据挖掘, 定量风险评估, 危险与可操作性分析(HAZOP), 偏离度

Abstract: In order to accurately evaluate operating status of oil and gas transmission rotating equipment and detect equipment failure in time so as to avoid economic losses from safety issues, a real-time quantitative risk assessment model for such equipment is established based on data mining. Firstly, indexes for risk assessment were selected considering monitoring parameters on site by using HAZOP and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analyses. Then, in terms of problem that traditional linear calculation method of deviation degree was not suitable to characterize deviation degrees of selected indexes, a deviation calculation model for quantitative indexes was constructed based on field monitoring data mining, and it was applied in risk evaluation of a compressor unit on site. The results show that at a deviation degree of 0.141 3, the compressor unit is in good operation. However, that of differential pressure for dry gas seal filter at 0.472 6 indicates that it should be checked in time. Analysis results are consistent with operation status of the unit.

Key words: oil and gas transmission rotating equipment, data mining, quantitative risk assessment, hazard and operability study (HAZOP), deviation degree

中图分类号:

X924.2

邱泽阳, 梁伟, 王雪, 林扬, 张萌. 油气输送动设备实时定量风险评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(2): 106-112.

QIU Zeyang, LIANG Wei, WANG Xue, LIN Yang, ZHANG Meng. Real-time quantitative risk assessment model of oil and gas transmission rotating equipment[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(2): 106-112.

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油气输送动设备实时定量风险评估模型

Real-time quantitative risk assessment model of oil and gas transmission rotating equipment

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